International Futures (IFs) is a large-scale, long-term, integrated global modeling system. It represents demographic, economic, energy, agricultural, socio-political, and environmental subsystems for 183 countries interacting in the global system. The central purpose of IFs is to facilitate exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios. The model is integrated with a large database containing values for its many foundational data series since 1960. IFs is freely available to users both on-line and in downloadable form.
IFs was a core component of a project exploring the New Economy sponsored by the European Commission. Forecasts from IFs supported Project 2020 of the National Intelligence Council for the Bush administration, as well as the NIC's Global Trends 2025 and Global Trends 2030, delivered to President Obama at the beginning of his two terms. IFs was used to provide driver forecasts for the fourth Global Environment Outlook of the United Nations Environment Program. IFs was also a key piece of a research project supported by DG INFSO of the European Commission to forecast ICT trends. And IFs supported long-term global forecasts for the United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Reports 2011 and 2013.
The model was developed over several generations, principally by Dr. Barry B. Hughes of the University of Denver and the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. IFs is continually being revised and updated.
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About the speaker:
|Dr. Barry B. Hughes is John Evans Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. He served the university as Vice Provost for Graduate Studies during the 1990s. Dr. Hughes earned a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford in 1967 (distinction) and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Minnesota in 1970.
His principal interests are in (1) global change, (2) computer simulation models for economic, energy, food, population, environmental, and socio-political forecasting, and (3) policy analysis. The fundamental concerns that synthesize these interests are (1) developing effective response to long-term global change and (2) improving the long-term human condition. He has developed International Futures (IFs), the widely-used computer simulation for study of long-term national, regional, and global issues (see http://www.ifs.du.edu/). He has supported the U.S. National Intelligence Council's reports to the President on Mapping the Global Futures 2020 and Global Trends 2025, and he is now supporting the forthcoming (2012) Global Trends 2030. He provided long-term global forecasting for the United Nations Environment Programme's Global Environment Outlook 4. He was a principal researcher in European Commission projects on the the New Economy and on Information and Communications Technology. He has contributed research to projects of RAND, the Central Intelligence Agency, the United Nations Human Development Report, United States Institute of Peace, and many other organizations.
University of Denver
Denver, Colorado 80208