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Note: The Sunday evening 7-9pm session will be on November 26 rather than November 19.

The final exam will be given on Tuesday, December 12, 8:30-11:30am in 320-105.
If you need any special arrangements for the final exam or are unable to take the regular exam, please complete the web form by Friday, December 1, so we can make the necessary arrangements, even if you have already informed us about your situation.

The exam is open-book and open-notes with any materials from this quarter's class.

No electronic devices are permitted so calculations will be kept as simple as possible, and you will receive complete credit for setting up the calculations clearly and correctly, even if you do not carry them out.

The topics for the exam are listed in the Examination Study Guide posted on the course Handouts page. A past final exam is also posted there, but solutions will not be provided.
Note that he last two lectures, December 4 and 6, will be a course review, and together we will solve the posted past final exam.

The last problem session will be on Friday, December 8 at 930am, followed by office hours, in 420-041.
There will be extra office hours on
Sunday, December 10, 2-4pm in Thornton 110, and
Monday, December 11, 10am-noon and 2-4pm in Y2E2-105.

Please pick up any of your graded papers that are still in the submission cabinet on the terrace (basement) level of Huang before the final exam. Any papers still in the cabinet will be discarded early in January.

Extra Finals Office Hours are:
Sunday, December 10 2-4pm in Thornton 110
Monday, December 11 10-noon in Y2E2-105
Monday, December 11 2-4pm in Y2E2-105

Office Hours are:
Mondays, 8:45-9:30am in 420-041
Wednesdays, 8:45-9:30am in 420-041
Wednesdays, 11:20-11:50am in 420-041
Wednesdays, 3:00-5:00pm in Huang 306
Thursdays, 1:30-3:30pm in Huang B008 (except Nov 9 when it is in Y2E2 176)
Fridays, 10:30-11:20am in 420-041 after problem session when there is no quiz

Course Objective

This is a fast-paced, fundamental course designed to develop an understanding of uncertain phenomena using the theory of probability. The course objective is to provide students with conceptual and intuitive insights into probabilistic reasoning and the ability to understand and solve real world problems.

Intended Audience

For students seeking an introduction to probability theory and applications, this course is designed to develop their intuition and model building skills. You should acquire Ways of Thinking in Formal Reasoning (intuitively understand a number of fundamental probabilistic reasoning concepts based on a mathematical foundation) and Applied Quantitative Reasoning (solve real world problems under uncertainty by structuring them, building models, and analyzing those models). This course also satisfies the Distributional Breadth GER in Engineering and Applied Science.

It is intended for undergraduate students and should be taken for five units.
Graduate students in MS&E should enroll in a similar but separate course, MS&E 220.

Course Summary

Concepts and tools for the analysis of problems under uncertainty, focusing on structuring, model building, and analysis. Examples from legal, social, medical, and physical problems.

Topics include axioms of probability, probability trees, belief networks, random variables, distributions, conditioning, inference, expectation, change of variables, and limit theorems.

Prerequisite: CME 100 (or MATH 51).

Required Textbook

The required textbook for the course is Sheldon Ross, A First Course in Probability, Pearson, 2014 (Ninth Edition). It is on reserve in the Engineering Library, and it is possible to use the eighth edition instead.


Additional information is in the syllabus posted on the Handouts page and at syllabus.stanford.edu.