2006 Workshop Papers

The following papers, lectures, and tutorials were presented at the second workshop (2006):

• INTRO (Tulja) Overview, lectures, materials, computing, logistics.
• INTRO TO DYNAMICS (Jones) Linear model, logistic model (models of diffusion), interacting populations, mixtures.
  • Dynamics Core Lecture Notes (pdf)
• MORTALITY CORE (Jones) Rates and Probabilities: Central Death Rates, Age-Specific Probabilities of Death, Cohort and period Life-Table. Life table construction. Life table relationships, Continuous Decrement Processes, frailty.
  • Mortality Core Lecture Notes (pdf)
  • Wilmoth, J. 2004. Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database. (pdf)
  • Current HMD Methods Protocol (pdf) (www.mortality.org)
• FERTILITY CORE (Tulja) ASFR. Measures (NRR, GRR). Timing and moments. Cohort and period. Parity.
  • Tuljapurkar, S. Lecture Fertility Core (pdf)
  • Tuljapurkar, S. Figures Fertility Core (pdf)
• INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHIC COMPUTING IN R (Jones)
  • Introduction to R (pdf)
• MULTISTATE METHODS 1 (Hayward) Multiple decrement/cause eliminated life tables.
  • Competing Risk Processes in the Context of a Non-parametric, Discrete-time Life-table Model (pdf)
  • Treas, J. 1977. A lifetable for postwar senate careers: A research note. Social Forces. 56:202-207. (pdf)
  • Hidajat, M. M., M. D. Hayward, and Y. Saito. In Press. Indonesia’s Social Capacity for Population Health: The Educational Gap in Active Life Expectancy. Population Research and Policy Review. (pdf)
• LESLIE MODEL 1 (Jones) Life-Cycle Graph: Non-negativity, irreducibility, primitivity, Eigenvalues, Eigenvectors of the Projection Matrix, Matirx Equations.
  • Leslie Matrix 1 (pdf)
  • Caswell, H. 1997. Matrix methods for population analysis. In S. Tuljapurkar and H. Caswell (Eds.), Structured-population models in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater systems, pp. 19-58. New York: Chapman & Hall. (pdf)
• MULTISTATE METHODS 2 (Hayward) Multistate Life Tables (and Stable Populations), part 1
  • Stochastic Processes with Multiple and Recurrent Events: A Markov-Based Multistate Life Table Approach (pdf)
  • Schoen, R. 1988. Practial uses of multistate population models. Annual Review of Sociology. 14:341-361 (pdf)
  • Hayward, M. D., S. Friedman, and H. Chen. 1996. Race inequities in men's retirement. Journal of Gerontology:Social Sciences. 51B:S1-S10 (pdf)
• LESLIE MATRIX 2 (Jones) Spectral Decomposition, Stable and Transient Solutions, Reproductive Value, Perturbations.
  • Leslie Matrix 2 (pdf)
  • Fisher, R. 1958. The genetical theory of natural selection. New York: Dover. Reprinted in D. Smith and N. Keyfitz (1977) Mathematical Demography: Selected Papers. pp.161-166 Berlin: Springer-Verlag. (pdf)
• MIGRATION AND LOW FERTILITY (Alho)
  • Migration-Fertility Trade-Off and Aging in Stable Populations (pdf)
  • Alho, J. M. 2006. Migration-Fertility Trade-Off and Aging in Stable Populations (pdf)
• RENEWAL EQUATION 1 (Tulja) Renewal equation. Initial cohort, stable solutions. Lotka equation, roots. Stable and transient solutions.
  • Lotka, A. (1907). Relation between birth rates and death rates. Science. 26, 21-22. Reprinted in D. Smith and N. Keyfitz (1977) Mathematical Demography: Selected Papers. pp. 93-96. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. (pdf)
  • Sharpe, F. and A. Lotka (1911). A problem in age-distribution. Philosophical Magazine. 21,435-438. Reprinted in D. Smith and N. Keyfitz (1977) Mathematical Demography: Selected Papers. pp. 97-100. Berlin:Springer-Verlag. (pdf)
  • Lotka, A. (1922). The stability of the normal age distribution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 8, 339-345. Reprinted in D. Smith and N. Keyfitz (1977) Mathematical Demography: Selected Papers. pp. 101-108. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. (pdf)
• UNCERTAINTY AND ERROR PROCESSES (Alho) UPE Project
  • Empirically-Based Specification of Forecast Uncertainty (pdf)
  • Alho, J. M., H. Cruijsen, and N. Keilman. 2006. Empirically-Based Specification of Forecast Uncertainty (pdf)
• PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS 1 (Wilmoth), Lexis Surfaces, Multistate Transitions, Parity.
  • Multi-state Lexis Model Applied to Fertility by Parity for the United States, 1917-2000 (Wilmoth) (pdf of Powerpoint presentation)
  • Parity Distribution Model of Fertility: General Definition and Exercise (pdf)
• GRAPHS AND CONTACT STRUCTURES 1 (Goodreau) Relational Data. Social Networks as Graphs: Density, Centrality, Components, Cycles, Knots, Cliques. Positions, Roles.
  • Anderson, C. J., S. Wasserman, and B. Crouch. 1999. A p* primer: logit models for social networks. Social Networks 21:37-66. (pdf)
• FERTILITY MODELS (Kohler) Economic models, Social Dynamics.
• COHORT & PERIOD MEASURES OF QUANTUM AND TEMPO (Bongaarts) Mortality and fertility tempo effects.
  • Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. 2003. Estimating Mean Lifetime. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 100(23) 13127-13133. (pdf)
  • Bongaarts, J. and G. Feeney. 2005. The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events. Population Council Working Papers. 2005. (pdf)
• BIODEMOGRAPHY OF FERTILITY (Kohler) Behavioral Genetic Approaches, Fisher’s Fundamental Theorem, Selection, Variance Components, Twin Studies.
• MORTALITY TRANSITIONS AND PROJECTIONS (Bongaarts)
  • Bongaarts, J. 2006. How Long Will We Live. Population and Development Review. Forthcoming. (pdf)
  • Bongaarts, J. 2005. Long-Range Trends in Adult Mortality: Models and Projection Methods. Demography. 42(1): 23-49. (pdf)
• GRAPHS AND CONTACT STRUCTURES 2 (Goodreau) Stochastic Models and Inference: Exponential Random Graph Models.
  • Snijders, T.A.B., P.E. Pattison, G.L. Robbins, M.S. Handcock. 2004. New specifications for exponential random graph models. CSSS Working Paper #42. University of Washington, Seattle, WA. (pdf)
• INDIRECT ESTIMATION, RELATIONAL MORT MODELS, MODEL LIFE TABLES (Wilmoth)
  • A Strategy of Mortality Estimation for National Populations (pdf of Powerpoint presentation)
  • Wilmoth, J., K. Andreev, and C. Sawyer. 2006. A Strategy of Mortality Estimation for National Populations. (pdf)
• RENEWAL EQUATION 2 (Tulja) Ergodicity. Reproductive value. Transfers.
  • Coale, A. 1957. How the age distribution of a human population is determined. Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology. 22, 83-88. Reprinted in D. Smith and N. Keyfitz (1977) Mathematical Demography:Selected Papers. pp. 167-172. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. (pdf)
  • Tuljapurkar, S. 2006. Renewal equation. (pdf)
• MODELING AGE AT MARRIAGE (Goldstein) Contagion and Diffusion, Hernes Model. US Forecasts.
  • Hernes, G. 1972. The Process of Entry into First Marriage. American Sociological Review. 37(2): 173-182. (pdf)
  • Goldstein, J. R. C. T. Kenney. 2001. Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women. American Sociological Review. 66(4): 506-519. (pdf)
• POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT: AMAZONIA CASE-STUDY (Castro)
  • Population and Environment Case Study (pdf)
  • de Castro, M. C., R. L. Monte-Mór, D. O. Sawyer, and B. H. Singer. 2006. Malaria Risk on the Amazonian Frontier. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 103: 2452-2457. (pdf)
• MOMENTUM 1 (Goldstein)
  • Keyfitz, N. 1971. On the Momentum of Population Growth. Demography 8:71-80. (pdf)
  • Preston, Samuel H., Patrick Heuveline and Michel Guillot. 2001. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Pages 161 – 167. Oxford/Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishing.
• MOMENTUM 2 (Goldstein)
  • Goldstein, J. 2002. Population Momentum for Gradual Demographic Transitions: An Alternative Approach. Demography 39(1): 65-73. (pdf)
  • Goldstein, J. and G. Stecklov. 2002. Long-Range Population Projections Made Simple. Population and Development Review March 2002, 28(1): 121-141. (pdf)
  • Li, N. and S. Tuljapurkar. 1999. Population Momentum for Gradual Demographic Transitions. Population Studies 53(2): 255-262. (pdf)
• EPIDEMIC MODELS (Jones) Simple and general epidemics, basic reproduction number, epidemic thresholds, critical vaccination, structured models.
  • Models of Infectious Disease (pdf)
  • On Epidemics, Multi-Host Models, Virulence, etc. (pdf)
  • Hethcote, H. W. 2000. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Review. 42 (4):599-653. (pdf)
  • Handcock, M. S. and J. H. Jones. 2006. Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Theoretical Population Biology. 70(2): 125-134. (pdf)
• SPATIAL DEMOGRAPHY (Castro)
  • Spatial Demography (pdf)
  • Chaixet, B., J. Merlo, P. Chauvin. 2005. Comparison of a spatial approach with the multilevel approach for investigating place effects on health: the example of healthcare utilisation in France. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 59: 517-626 (pdf)
  • de Castro, M. C. 2006. Spatial Demography: An Opportunity to Improve Policy Making at Diverse Decision Levels. (pdf)
• APPLICATION (Mare)
  • Rogers, A. 1966. The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure. Demography. 3 (2):537-544. (pdf)
  • Mare, R.D. 1997. Differential fertility, intergenerational educational mobility, and racial inequality. Social Science Research. 26:263-291. (pdf)
  • Mare, R.D. and V. Maralani 2006. The Intergenerational Effects of Changes in Women's Educational Attainments. American Sociological Review. 71:542-564. (pdf)
• AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL DEMOGRAPHY 1 (Bruch)
  • Modeling Social Interactions (using Agent-Based Models) (pdf)
  • Schelling, T. C. 1971. Dynamic models of segregation. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186 (pdf)
  • van Imhoff, E. and W. Post. 1998: Microsimulation methods for population projection. Population: An english selection 10:97-138 (pdf)
  • Todd, P. M., F. C. Billari, and J. Simao 2005. Agggregate age-at-marriage patterns from individual mate-search heuristics. Demography 42:559-574 (pdf)
  • Bruch, E. E. and R. Mare 2006. Neighborhood choice and neighborhood change. (pdf)
• HOMOGAMY AND INTERMARRIAGE (Mare) Log linear and log probability specifications Univariate and multivariate homogamy, Asymmetric preference structures.
  • Goldman, N., C. F. Westoff, and C. Hammerslough 1984. Demography of the marriage market in the United States. Population Index. 50:5-25. (pdf)
  • Quian, Z. and S. H. Preston. 1993. Changes in American marriage, 1972-1987: Availability and forces of attraction by age and education. American Sociological Review. 58: 482-495 (pdf)
  • Schwartz, C. R. and R. D. Mare 2005. Trends in educational assortative marriage from 1940 to 2003. Demography 42:621-646 (pdf)
• TIME SERIES MODELS (Tulja) Basic time series models and their properties
• AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL DEMOGRAPHY 2 (Bruch)
  • Building Agent-Based Models from Scratch (pdf)
  • Netlogo documentation and tutorials
• CULTURAL EVOLUTION (Feldman) Population Genetics Models, Niche Construction
  • Ihara, Y., and M. W. Feldman. 2004. Cultural niche construction and the evolution of small family size. Theoretical Population Biology. 65 (1):105-111. (pdf)
  • Boni, M. F. and M. W. Feldman. 2005. The evolution of antibiotic resistance by human and bacterial niche construction. Evolution. 59(3): 477-491. (pdf)
• MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS 1 (Steinsaltz) Mortality plateaus, Population mixtures, Fourier transforms.
  • Notes on Mortality Plateaus (pdf)
• STOCHASTIC MORTALITY FORECASTS (Lee) Lee-Carter Model, LC with limited data, LC for members of groups with common features, Tests on historical data, limitations, generalizations.
  • Stochastic Mortality Forecasting (Powerpoint file)
  • Lee, R.D. and L. Carter 1992. Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 87(419): 659-671. (pdf)
  • Li, N., R. Lee, and S. Tuljapurkar. 2004. Using the Lee-Carter method to forecast mortality for populations with limited data. International Statistical Review. 72 (1):19-36. (pdf)
• KINSHIP (Jones) Analytical approach, Generating functions, Microsimulation.
  • The Formal Demography of Kinship (pdf)
  • Goodman, L. A., N. Keyfitz, and T. W. Pullum. 1974. Family formation and the frequency of various kinship relationships. Theoretical Population Biology. 5:1-27. (Addendum, Theoretical Population Biology. (1975) 8:376-381.) (pdf)
  • Pullum, T. W. 1982. The eventual frequencies of kin in a stable population. Demography 19:549-565. (pdf)
  • Hammel, E.A. 2005. Demographic dynamics and kinship in anthropological populations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 102(6):2248-2253. (pdf)
• FISCAL PROJECTIONS (Lee) Deterministic Projections, Stochastic Projections. Social Security, General Government Budgets.
  • Stochastic Fiscal Projections (Powerpoint file)
  • Lee, R. D. and S. Tuljapurkar. 1994. Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 89(428): 1175-1189. (pdf)
• MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS 2 (Steinsaltz) Asymptotics, Markov models, Evolving Heterogeneity.
  • Steinsaltz, D. 2005. Re-evaluating a test of the heterogeneity explanation for mortality plateaus. Experimental Gerontology 40 (1-2):101-113. (pdf)
  • Steinsaltz, D., and S. N. Evans. 2004. Markov mortality models: implications of quasistationarity and varying initial distributions. Theoretical Population Biology 65 (4):319-337. (pdf)
• INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS (Lee)
  • Intergenerational Transfers (Powerpoint file)
  • Bommier, A. and R.D. Lee. 2003. Overlapping Generations Models with Realistic Demography. Journal of Population Economics. 16:1:135-160. (pdf)