Efficient Estimation of the Mean Time Between Failures in Nonregenerative Dependability ModelsP. W. Glynn, P. Heidelberger, V. Nicola, and P. Shahabuddin Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Simulation Conference, 311316 (1993) In this paper we discuss fast simulation techniques for estimating the steadystate mean time between failures (MTBF) in nonMarkovian models of highly dependable systems. The key is to use a ratio representation of the MTBF, in which the denominator is closely related to the probability of a rare event and is therefore amenable to estimation using importance sampling. A simulation methodology based on splitting and batch means, used for steadystate estimation in nonregenerative systems, can then be employed. Experiments using this methodology yield good results.
