Google scholar profile
Working papers
Published and forthcoming
Other writing
Sundry current projects

Working papers

"Large economic benefits to limiting warming to 1.5C" [July 2017]. (with Noah Diffenbaugh and Matt Davis) (in review)

"Air pollution and infant health in Africa" [Jun 2017]. (with Sam Heft Neal, Jen Burney, and Eran Bendavid) (in review)

"Effect of high ambient temperature on suicide rates in the United States and Mexico" [May 2017]. (with Felipe Gonzalez, Ceren Baysan, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Sanjay Basu, and Sol Hsiang). (in review)

"The economic origins of conflict in Africa", with Eoin McGuirk. [Jan 2017] NBER WP w23056. [blog post] R&R, Journal of Political Economy

"Selling low and buying high: an arbitrage puzzle in Kenyan villages". [updated Nov 2017] [Coverage: NYTimes]

"Analysis of statistical power reconciles climate-conflict results in Africa" [Dec 2015]. (with Sol Hsiang, Kyle Meng, Mark Cane, Ted Miguel).

Published and forthcoming

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Step Aston, David Lobell. 2017. "Mapping and explaining smallholder yield heterogeneity in Eastern Africa". Remote Sensing9(9) 2017

Marshall Burke* and David Lobell*. 2017. "Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems". PNAS. [blog post] [earlier blog post] (*denotes equal authorship)

Sam Heft-Neal, David Lobell, and Marshall Burke. 2017. "Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions". Environmental Research Letters, 12(1) 014013.

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid. 2016. "Understanding variation in child mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa". Lancet Global Health, Oct 2016.

Neal Jean*, Marshall Burke*, Michael Xie, Matt Davis, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2016. "Combining machine learning and satellite imagery to predict poverty". Science, 353(6301), 790-794. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda, and lots of others. 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics". Science.

Marshall Burke and Kyle Emerick. 2016. "Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture". American Economic Journal -Economic Policy, 8(3), 106-140.

Tamma Carleton, Sol Hsiang, and Marshall Burke. 2016 "Conflict in a changing climate". European Physical Journal. [blog post by Tamma]

Marshall Burke*, Sol Hsiang*, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production." Nature. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Ted Miguel, and Shanker Satyanath. 2015. "Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts". Review of Economics and Statistics.

Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Climate and conflict", Annual Review of Economics.

Marshall Burke, Erick Gong, and Kelly Jones. 2015. "Income shocks and HIV in Africa". Economic Journal

Sol Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Ted Miguel. 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: Reply to Buhaug et al". Climatic Change.

Sol Hsiang*, Marshall Burke*, and Ted Miguel. 2013. "Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict". Science. (*denotes equal authorship)

Sol Hsiang and Marshall Burke. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the literature say?" Climatic Change, 2013.

[book] Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World. 2010. David Lobell and Marshall Burke, eds. Springer.

Jen Burney, Lennart Woltering, Marshall Burke, Roz Naylor, Dov Pasternak. 2010. "Solar powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano-Sahel". PNAS.

Tom Hertel, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2010. "The poverty implications of climate-induced yield changes by 2030". Global Environmental Change.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2010. "On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.

Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell. 2009. "Warming increases risk of civil war in Africa". PNAS.

Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Luigi Guarino. 2009. "Shifts in African crop climates to 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation". Global Environmental Change 17, 317-325.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2008. "Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation". Environmental Research Letters, September 2008.

David Lobell, Marshall Burke et al. 2008. "Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030". Science 319, 607-610.

Marshall Burke, Kirsten Oleson, Ellen McCullough, and Joanne Gaskell. 2008. "A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade". Environmental Modeling and Assessment, June 2008.

Roz Naylor, David Battisti, Dan Vimont, Walter Falcon, and Marshall Burke. 2007. "Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture". PNAS.

Jim Galloway, Marshall Burke et al. 2007. "International trade in meat - the tip of the pork chop". Ambio, 36(8).

Roz Naylor, Adam Liska, Marshall Burke, and others. 2007. "The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environmen"t. Environment 49, 30-43.

Other writing: comments, op-eds, papers in permanent hibernation

"Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict", LA Times op-ed, Dec 17 2015 (with Sol Hsiang)

"Costs and benefits of climate change", Wall Stree Journal response to Bjorn Lombord op-ed, Nov 22nd 2015 (with Sol Hsiang) [blog post]

"Temperature and violence" [Comment on Raleigh et al], Nature Climate Change, April 2014 (with Mark Cane, Ted Miguel, Sol Hsiang, David Lobell, Kyle Meng, and Shanker Satyanath)

"Weather and violence", New York Times op-ed, August 30th, 2013 (with Sol Hsiang and Ted Miguel).

"Climate robustly linked to African civil war" [Comment on Buhaug 2010], PNAS, 2010. (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell).

"Climate and civil war: is the relationship robust?" NBER working paper w16440 (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell). [Economist coverage]

Sundry current projects (in no particular order)

Climate, health, and human capital in the developing world (with Eran Bendavid, Sam Heft-Neal)

Climate and consumption: evidence from a boatload of household surveys and subnational GDP data (with Sol Hsiang)

A global satellite-derived poverty map, with applications (with SustainLab)

Conflict and mortality (with Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid)

Environmental constraints on elite worker productivity: evidence from professional tennis (with Sam Heft-Neal, Vincent Tanutama, David Lobell)

Dealing with measurement error in spatial data (with Jen Burney, David Lobell, and Sol Hsiang)