Google scholar profile
Working papers
Published and forthcoming
Other writing
Sundry current projects

Working papers

"Selling low and buying high: arbitrage and local price effects in Kenyan markets". [Mar 2018] (with Lauren Bergquist and Ted Miguel) NBER Working Paper w24476 [Coverage: NYTimes] [older version], R&R, Quarterly Journal of Economics

"The economic origins of conflict in Africa", with Eoin McGuirk. [Jan 2017] NBER Working Paper w23056. [blog post] R&R, Journal of Political Economy

"Eyes in the sky, boots on the ground: assessing satellite- and ground-based approaches to crop yield measurement and analysis" [May 2018] (with David Lobell, George Azzari, Sydney Gourlay, Zhenong Jin, Talip Kilic, Siobhan Murray). (in review) World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8374.

Published and forthcoming

Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid. 2018. "Armed conflict and child mortality", forthcoming, Lancet

Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu, and Sol Hsiang, 2018. "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico", Nature Climate Change.

Sam Heft Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, and Marshall Burke. 2018. "Robust relationship between air quality and infant mortality in Africa", Nature

Chris Weyant, Margaret L Brandeau, Marshall Burke, David B Lobell, Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu. 2018. "Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study". PLOS Medicine

Marshall Burke, Matt Davis, Noah Diffenbaugh. 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets", Nature, 557549553 (2018)

Barak Oshri, Annie Hu, Peter Adelson, Xiao Chen, Pascaline Dupas, Jeremy Weinstein, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2018. "Infrastructure Quality Assessment in Africa using Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning". KDD-18. To appear in Proc. 24th ACM SIGKDD Conference, 2018. [Arxiv]

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Step Aston, David Lobell. 2017. Mapping and explaining smallholder yield heterogeneity in Eastern Africa. Remote Sensing, 9(9).

Marshall Burke* and David Lobell*. 2017. "Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems". PNAS. [blog post] [earlier blog post] (*denotes equal authorship)

Sam Heft-Neal, David Lobell, and Marshall Burke. 2017. "Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions". Environmental Research Letters, 12(1) 014013.

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid. 2016. "Understanding variation in child mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa". Lancet Global Health, Oct 2016.

Neal Jean*, Marshall Burke*, Michael Xie, Matt Davis, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2016. "Combining machine learning and satellite imagery to predict poverty". Science, 353(6301), 790-794. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda, and lots of others. 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics". Science.

Marshall Burke and Kyle Emerick. 2016. "Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture". American Economic Journal -Economic Policy, 8(3), 106-140.

Tamma Carleton, Sol Hsiang, and Marshall Burke. 2016 "Conflict in a changing climate". European Physical Journal. [blog post by Tamma]

Marshall Burke*, Sol Hsiang*, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production." Nature. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Ted Miguel, and Shanker Satyanath. 2015. "Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts". Review of Economics and Statistics.

Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Climate and conflict", Annual Review of Economics.

Marshall Burke, Erick Gong, and Kelly Jones. 2015. "Income shocks and HIV in Africa". Economic Journal

Sol Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Ted Miguel. 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: Reply to Buhaug et al". Climatic Change.

Sol Hsiang*, Marshall Burke*, and Ted Miguel. 2013. "Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict". Science. (*denotes equal authorship)

Sol Hsiang and Marshall Burke. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the literature say?" Climatic Change, 2013.

[book] Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World. 2010. David Lobell and Marshall Burke, eds. Springer.

Jen Burney, Lennart Woltering, Marshall Burke, Roz Naylor, Dov Pasternak. 2010. "Solar powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano-Sahel". PNAS.

Tom Hertel, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2010. "The poverty implications of climate-induced yield changes by 2030". Global Environmental Change.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2010. "On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.

Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell. 2009. "Warming increases risk of civil war in Africa". PNAS.

Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Luigi Guarino. 2009. "Shifts in African crop climates to 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation". Global Environmental Change 17, 317-325.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2008. "Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation". Environmental Research Letters, September 2008.

David Lobell, Marshall Burke et al. 2008. "Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030". Science 319, 607-610.

Marshall Burke, Kirsten Oleson, Ellen McCullough, and Joanne Gaskell. 2008. "A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade". Environmental Modeling and Assessment, June 2008.

Roz Naylor, David Battisti, Dan Vimont, Walter Falcon, and Marshall Burke. 2007. "Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture". PNAS.

Jim Galloway, Marshall Burke et al. 2007. "International trade in meat - the tip of the pork chop". Ambio, 36(8).

Roz Naylor, Adam Liska, Marshall Burke, and others. 2007. "The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environmen"t. Environment 49, 30-43.

Other writing: comments, op-eds, papers in permanent hibernation

"Paris agreement could save trillions in avoided climate damages", op-ed with Noah Diffenbaugh in The Hill, May 27 2018

"Climate and conflict: no stigma" (correspondence to Nature, on their editorial and Adams et al Nature Climate Change 2018). March 2018, Nature. [accompanying blog post]

"Analysis of statistical power reconciles climate-conflict results in Africa" [Dec 2015]. (with Sol Hsiang, Kyle Meng, Mark Cane, Ted Miguel).

"Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict", LA Times op-ed, Dec 17 2015 (with Sol Hsiang)

"Costs and benefits of climate change", Wall Stree Journal response to Bjorn Lombord op-ed, Nov 22nd 2015 (with Sol Hsiang) [blog post]

"Temperature and violence" [Comment on Raleigh et al], Nature Climate Change, April 2014 (with Mark Cane, Ted Miguel, Sol Hsiang, David Lobell, Kyle Meng, and Shanker Satyanath)

"Weather and violence", New York Times op-ed, August 30th, 2013 (with Sol Hsiang and Ted Miguel).

"Climate robustly linked to African civil war" [Comment on Buhaug 2010], PNAS, 2010. (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell).

"Climate and civil war: is the relationship robust?" NBER working paper w16440 (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell). [Economist coverage]

Sundry current projects (in no particular order)

Climate, health, and human capital in the developing world (with Eran Bendavid, Sam Heft-Neal)

Poverty mapping (with SustainLab)

Environmental constraints on elite worker productivity: evidence from professional tennis (with Sam Heft-Neal, Vincent Tanutama, David Lobell, and Miyuki Hino)

Warming and welfare: global micro evidence (with Sol Hsiang)

Economic and non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico (with Ceren Baysan, Felipe Gonzalez, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel)