Waist Deep in the Big Muddy;[*]
The Big Fool Says to Push On
Thomas Gale Moore
Senior Fellow
Hoover Institution
Stanford University
Instead of improving, the situation in Iraq continues to become
more chaotic. American soldiers are dying at the rate of nearly five per day,
up from about one per day last fall. With the photographs and reports of U.S.
guards mistreating Iraqi prisoners, we have destroyed any possible rapport with
the local people. The likelihood of establishing a friendly democratic government
is close to nil. The pullback from Al-Fallujah, one day after we dropped
leaflets demanding surrender or death, has been widely seen as a victory for
the insurgents. The appointment of an Iraqi general to head a group of former
soldiers to pacify the city, then, two days later, the selection of another
former army officer to oversee the effort, indicates a confused military
command. The stalemate in Najaf over
the attempt to arrest Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite cleric charged with murdering
another cleric, demonstrates the impotence of the U.S. military. It is not that
we could not have taken either Najaf or Fallujah but at what cost? We could
have leveled both towns and killed most of the inhabitants but the political
fallout would have been too high.
It is time, therefore, to consider the alternatives. They are all
BAD. We could, as George Bush says, ³stay the course,² which means an endless
stream of body bags, maimed soldiers who will spend the rest of their lives as
cripples, and huge government expenditures with a burgeoning national debt.
Eventually, like the British in the 1920s, we will have to pull out. There is
an old saying, ³when you are in a hole, stop digging,² or, as a poker player
would say, ³you have to know when it¹s time to fold.² Rather than wait several
years at increased costs, let us consider getting out now.
On April 28, John Harwood, writing in The Wall Street Journal, quotes retired General William E. Odom, Director, National Security Studies of the Hudson Institute, as saying, ³We have failed. The issue is how high a price we¹re going to pay Š Less, by getting out sooner, or more, by getting out later?² Odum proposes that the U.S. try to get the U.N. to take control of Iraq and provide for its security. Since it will be difficult to secure an agreement in the Security Council to take over the supervision of Iraq, he would couple that with the ³unilateral² step of removing all U.S. troops from that country within six months, irrespective of the response of the international community. Such a move might galvanize the Europeans into accepting some responsibility for security and stability in this vital area.
Hawks in the administration and the
press would undoubtedly see this as ³cutting and running.² They would assert
that withdrawing would make the United States look weak and encourage others to
stand up to America. The same claim was made about pulling out of Vietnam. Yet,
when we did, with our helicopters evacuating the last Americans from the roof
of our embassy, our armed forces remained strong and no country tried to take
advantage of us. Let us not have
to build a helicopter pad on the top of our Baghdad embassy.
Clearly our military is the most
powerful in the world. No one dares to attack the United States. What we cannot
do or don¹t have the stomach to do is to occupy another country. As we have
seen, no people like to have a foreign nation occupy their homeland. To do so
successfully, one must be willing to be totally ruthless and to accept that
such an occupation will carry a huge human and financial cost for both occupier
and occupied.
On June 30, instead of awarding a meaningless partial ³sovereignty² to some yet to be chosen (by whom?) Iraqi government, we should provide full sovereignty with the right to make laws and control the country¹s armed forces. If we can secure U.N. agreement, we should let that body take the initiative in choosing the new people to run Iraq. Otherwise, we might call together a council representing the various tribes, religions, and areas to choose their own leader. But even if they fail and there is no government, we should declare victory ‹ we have captured Saddam Hussein and achieved regime change‹ and leave by the end of this year. It should and will then be up to the Iraqis to settle their own affairs.