--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       log:  C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\soc_388_2003\class 8.log

  log type:  text

 opened on:  22 Oct 2003, 11:14:20

 

. use "C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\70-80-90 MR updated cl7.dta", clear

 

. keep  meth feth mgen fgen year count

 

. describe

 

Contains data from C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\70-80-90 MR updated cl

> 7.dta

  obs:           225                          

 vars:             6                          17 Oct 2001 12:19

 size:         6,300 (99.9% of memory free)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              storage  display     value

variable name   type   format      label      variable label

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

meth            str8   %9s                   

feth            str9   %9s                   

mgen            byte   %8.0g                 

fgen            byte   %8.0g                 

year            byte   %8.0g                 

count           long   %12.0g                 Frequency

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorted by:  year  mgen  fgen 

     Note:  dataset has changed since last saved

 

. tabulate meth

 

       meth |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.

------------+-----------------------------------

     Blk_NH |         45       20.00       20.00

     Mex_Am |         45       20.00       40.00

      Oth_H |         45       20.00       60.00

     Oth_NH |         45       20.00       80.00

     Wht_NH |         45       20.00      100.00

------------+-----------------------------------

      Total |        225      100.00

 

. desmat: poisson count  meth feth mgen fgen year

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                            -253644.595

   LR chi square:                                                             3997938.105

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           12

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.887

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                          -0.591**     0.008

2      Oth_H                                                           -1.370**     0.010

3      Oth_NH                                                          -1.730**     0.012

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.505**     0.005

     feth

5      Mex_Am                                                          -0.571**     0.008

6      Oth_H                                                           -1.330**     0.010

7      Oth_NH                                                          -1.464**     0.011

8      Wht_NH                                                           2.552**     0.005

     mgen

9      2                                                                3.428**     0.007

     fgen

10     2                                                                3.462**     0.007

     year

11     80                                                               1.680**     0.004

12     90                                                               1.294**     0.004

13   _cons                                                             -1.226**     0.013

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  505957.2

         Prob > chi2(212)      =    0.0000

 

. *This is the "everything is independent from everything model"

* Note the number of degrees of freedom as (5-1)+(5-1) +(2-1)+(2-1)+(3-1) +1

. predict P_1

(option n assumed; predicted number of events)

 

. table meth, contents (sum count)

 

----------------------

     meth | sum(count)

----------+-----------

   Blk_NH |      45681

   Mex_Am |      25294

    Oth_H |      11609

   Oth_NH |       8100

   Wht_NH |     559137

----------------------

 

. table meth, contents (sum P_1)

 

----------------------

     meth |   sum(P_1)

----------+-----------

   Blk_NH |      45681

   Mex_Am |      25294

    Oth_H |      11609

   Oth_NH |       8100

   Wht_NH |     559137

----------------------

 

. table meth year, contents (sum count) row col

 

------------------------------------------

          |              year            

     meth |     70      80      90   Total

----------+-------------------------------

   Blk_NH |   4759   26972   13950   45681

   Mex_Am |   1239   13236   10819   25294

    Oth_H |   1445    5459    4705   11609

   Oth_NH |    463    4097    3540    8100

   Wht_NH |  56997  298483  203657  559137

          |

    Total |  64903  348247  236671  649821

------------------------------------------

 

. table meth year, contents (sum P_1) row col

 

--------------------------------------------------

          |                  year                

     meth |       70        80        90     Total

----------+---------------------------------------

   Blk_NH | 4562.539  24481.01  16637.46     45681

   Mex_Am | 2526.321  13555.36  9212.316     25294

    Oth_H | 1159.487  6221.405  4228.108     11609

   Oth_NH |  809.014  4340.889  2950.097      8100

   Wht_NH | 55845.64  299648.3    203643    559137

          |

    Total |    64903    348247    236671    649821

--------------------------------------------------

 

. desmat: poisson count meth*feth

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                            -676246.840

   LR chi square:                                                             3152733.615

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           24

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.700

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                          -6.114**     0.103

2      Oth_H                                                           -4.921**     0.057

3      Oth_NH                                                          -6.043**     0.100

4      Wht_NH                                                          -4.236**     0.041

     feth

5      Mex_Am                                                          -4.984**     0.059

6      Oth_H                                                           -4.637**     0.050

7      Oth_NH                                                          -4.684**     0.051

8      Wht_NH                                                          -3.025**     0.023

     meth.feth

9      Mex_Am.Mex_Am                                                   10.244**     0.119

10     Mex_Am.Oth_H                                                     6.510**     0.121

11     Mex_Am.Oth_NH                                                    6.211**     0.125

12     Mex_Am.Wht_NH                                                    7.193**     0.106

13     Oth_H.Mex_Am                                                     5.698**     0.091

14     Oth_H.Oth_H                                                      7.583**     0.076

15     Oth_H.Oth_NH                                                     4.500**     0.098

16     Oth_H.Wht_NH                                                     5.702**     0.063

17     Oth_NH.Mex_Am                                                    6.128**     0.129

18     Oth_NH.Oth_H                                                     5.388**     0.130

19     Oth_NH.Oth_NH                                                    8.232**     0.113

20     Oth_NH.Wht_NH                                                    6.694**     0.103

21     Wht_NH.Mex_Am                                                    7.145**     0.073

22     Wht_NH.Oth_H                                                     6.605**     0.066

23     Wht_NH.Oth_NH                                                    6.876**     0.066

24     Wht_NH.Wht_NH                                                    9.809**     0.046

25   _cons                                                              8.461**     0.005

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =   1351162

         Prob > chi2(200)      =    0.0000

 

*Note in the above model the number of degrees of freedom is 5*5=25.  For saturated models,

you just need to know what sized table it fits exactly, and that's how many cells it has.

. desmat meth*feth

 

Desmat generated the following design matrix:

 

nr   Variables       Term                        Parameterization

     First    Last

 

 1    _x_1    _x_4   meth                        ind(1)

 2    _x_5    _x_8   feth                        ind(1)

 3    _x_9   _x_24   meth.feth                   ind(1).ind(1)

 

. gen ethintdum=0

 

. replace ethnintdum=1 if meth==feth

variable ethnintdum not found

r(111);

 

. replace  ethintdum=1 if meth==feth

(45 real changes made)

 

. desmat: poisson count meth*mgen*year feth*fgen*year ethintdum

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                             -14085.822

   LR chi square:                                                             4477055.651

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           57

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.994

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                           2.065**     0.203

2      Oth_H                                                            1.780**     0.206

3      Oth_NH                                                           1.173**     0.242

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.070**     0.184

     mgen

5      2                                                                5.017**     0.180

     meth.mgen

6      Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.942**     0.203

7      Oth_H.2                                                         -2.561**     0.206

8      Oth_NH.2                                                        -2.815**     0.245

9      Wht_NH.2                                                        -0.787**     0.184

     year

10     80                                                               4.180**     0.330

11     90                                                               4.502**     0.332

     meth.year

12     Mex_Am.80                                                       -0.153       0.210

13     Mex_Am.90                                                       -0.212       0.210

14     Oth_H.80                                                         0.304       0.213

15     Oth_H.90                                                         0.066       0.214

16     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.172       0.250

17     Oth_NH.90                                                       -0.296       0.251

18     Wht_NH.80                                                       -0.833**     0.191

19     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.138**     0.192

     mgen.year

20     2.80                                                            -0.946**     0.186

21     2.90                                                            -1.514**     0.187

     meth.mgen.year

22     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      0.430*      0.210

23     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      0.625**     0.211

24     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.900**     0.214

25     Oth_H.2.90                                                      -0.431*      0.215

26     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      0.235       0.254

27     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      0.619*      0.254

28     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      0.719**     0.190

29     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      1.184**     0.191

     feth

30     Mex_Am                                                           2.788**     0.284

31     Oth_H                                                            2.470**     0.288

32     Oth_NH                                                           3.204**     0.284

33     Wht_NH                                                           3.243**     0.270

     fgen

34     2                                                                5.802**     0.268

     feth.fgen

35     Mex_Am.2                                                        -3.691**     0.285

36     Oth_H.2                                                         -3.195**     0.288

37     Oth_NH.2                                                        -4.590**     0.287

38     Wht_NH.2                                                        -1.902**     0.269

     feth.year

39     Mex_Am.80                                                       -1.089**     0.291

40     Mex_Am.90                                                       -0.940**     0.292

41     Oth_H.80                                                        -0.250       0.295

42     Oth_H.90                                                        -0.182       0.296

43     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.672*      0.291

44     Oth_NH.90                                                       -0.770**     0.292

45     Wht_NH.80                                                       -1.539**     0.276

46     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.801**     0.277

     fgen.year

47     2.80                                                            -1.541**     0.273

48     2.90                                                            -2.023**     0.274

     feth.fgen.year

49     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      1.530**     0.291

50     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      1.717**     0.292

51     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.158       0.295

52     Oth_H.2.90                                                       0.120       0.297

53     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      1.057**     0.294

54     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      1.473**     0.295

55     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      1.611**     0.275

56     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      2.055**     0.277

     ethintdum

57     1                                                                3.218**     0.006

58   _cons                                                             -5.767**     0.322

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  26839.64

         Prob > chi2(167)      =    0.0000

 

. desmat: poisson count meth*mgen*year feth*fgen*year ethintdum*year

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                             -13301.451

   LR chi square:                                                             4478624.393

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           59

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.994

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                           2.135**     0.206

2      Oth_H                                                            1.810**     0.209

3      Oth_NH                                                           1.191**     0.245

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.009**     0.186

     mgen

5      2                                                                5.020**     0.180

     meth.mgen

6      Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.958**     0.203

7      Oth_H.2                                                         -2.570**     0.206

8      Oth_NH.2                                                        -2.866**     0.245

9      Wht_NH.2                                                        -0.790**     0.184

     year

10     80                                                               4.682**     0.331

11     90                                                               5.259**     0.333

     meth.year

12     Mex_Am.80                                                       -0.221       0.212

13     Mex_Am.90                                                       -0.273       0.213

14     Oth_H.80                                                         0.287       0.216

15     Oth_H.90                                                         0.017       0.217

16     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.195       0.253

17     Oth_NH.90                                                       -0.304       0.254

18     Wht_NH.80                                                       -0.787**     0.193

19     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.032**     0.194

     mgen.year

20     2.80                                                            -0.948**     0.186

21     2.90                                                            -1.518**     0.187

     meth.mgen.year

22     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      0.444*      0.210

23     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      0.648**     0.211

24     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.901**     0.214

25     Oth_H.2.90                                                      -0.393       0.215

26     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      0.275       0.254

27     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      0.701**     0.255

28     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      0.721**     0.190

29     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      1.187**     0.191

     feth

30     Mex_Am                                                           2.846**     0.286

31     Oth_H                                                            2.541**     0.290

32     Oth_NH                                                           3.451**     0.287

33     Wht_NH                                                           3.234**     0.271

     fgen

34     2                                                                5.804**     0.268

     feth.fgen

35     Mex_Am.2                                                        -3.708**     0.285

36     Oth_H.2                                                         -3.205**     0.288

37     Oth_NH.2                                                        -4.608**     0.287

38     Wht_NH.2                                                        -1.904**     0.269

     feth.year

39     Mex_Am.80                                                       -1.137**     0.293

40     Mex_Am.90                                                       -1.034**     0.294

41     Oth_H.80                                                        -0.294       0.297

42     Oth_H.90                                                        -0.326       0.298

43     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.877**     0.293

44     Oth_NH.90                                                       -1.115**     0.295

45     Wht_NH.80                                                       -1.526**     0.277

46     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.793**     0.278

     fgen.year

47     2.80                                                            -1.542**     0.273

48     2.90                                                            -2.028**     0.274

     feth.fgen.year

49     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      1.543**     0.291

50     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      1.747**     0.292

51     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.160       0.295

52     Oth_H.2.90                                                       0.164       0.297

53     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      1.070**     0.294

54     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      1.506**     0.295

55     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      1.612**     0.275

56     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      2.057**     0.277

     ethintdum

57     1                                                                3.874**     0.025

     ethintdum.year

58     1.80                                                            -0.568**     0.026

59     1.90                                                            -0.884**     0.026

60   _cons                                                             -6.344**     0.323

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =   25270.9

         Prob > chi2(165)      =    0.0000

 

. *

. *That previous model treats year as a nominal categorical variable everywhere

. *Now let's treat year as a continuous variable for the purposes of interaction with ethnic intermarriage

. desmat: poisson count meth*mgen*year feth*fgen*year ethintdum*@year

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Poisson regression

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                             -13334.989

   LR chi square:                                                             4478557.317

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           58

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.994

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                           2.121**     0.205

2      Oth_H                                                            1.807**     0.208

3      Oth_NH                                                           1.201**     0.244

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.023**     0.185

     mgen

5      2                                                                5.019**     0.180

     meth.mgen

6      Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.955**     0.203

7      Oth_H.2                                                         -2.568**     0.206

8      Oth_NH.2                                                        -2.855**     0.245

9      Wht_NH.2                                                        -0.789**     0.184

     year

10     80                                                               1.942**     0.181

     meth.year

11     Mex_Am.80                                                       -0.206       0.212

12     Mex_Am.90                                                       -0.258       0.212

13     Oth_H.80                                                         0.295       0.215

14     Oth_H.90                                                         0.018       0.216

15     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.208       0.252

16     Oth_NH.90                                                       -0.314       0.253

17     Wht_NH.80                                                       -0.808**     0.192

18     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.042**     0.193

     mgen.year

19     2.80                                                            -0.948**     0.186

20     2.90                                                            -1.518**     0.187

     meth.mgen.year

21     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      0.440*      0.210

22     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      0.645**     0.211

23     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.907**     0.214

24     Oth_H.2.90                                                      -0.392       0.215

25     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      0.259       0.254

26     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      0.693**     0.255

27     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      0.720**     0.190

28     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      1.187**     0.191

     feth

29     Mex_Am                                                           2.836**     0.286

30     Oth_H                                                            2.526**     0.290

31     Oth_NH                                                           3.389**     0.286

32     Wht_NH                                                           3.232**     0.271

     fgen

33     2                                                                5.804**     0.268

     feth.fgen

34     Mex_Am.2                                                        -3.704**     0.285

35     Oth_H.2                                                         -3.203**     0.288

36     Oth_NH.2                                                        -4.604**     0.287

37     Wht_NH.2                                                        -1.903**     0.269

     feth.year

38     Mex_Am.80                                                       -1.123**     0.292

39     Mex_Am.90                                                       -1.027**     0.293

40     Oth_H.80                                                        -0.267       0.296

41     Oth_H.90                                                        -0.317       0.297

42     Oth_NH.80                                                       -0.798**     0.292

43     Oth_NH.90                                                       -1.062**     0.294

44     Wht_NH.80                                                       -1.523**     0.276

45     Wht_NH.90                                                       -1.792**     0.278

     fgen.year

46     2.80                                                            -1.541**     0.273

47     2.90                                                            -2.027**     0.274

     feth.fgen.year

48     Mex_Am.2.80                                                      1.538**     0.291

49     Mex_Am.2.90                                                      1.745**     0.292

50     Oth_H.2.80                                                      -0.167       0.295

51     Oth_H.2.90                                                       0.165       0.297

52     Oth_NH.2.80                                                      1.064**     0.294

53     Oth_NH.2.90                                                      1.504**     0.295

54     Wht_NH.2.80                                                      1.611**     0.275

55     Wht_NH.2.90                                                      2.057**     0.277

     ethintdum

56     1                                                                6.337**     0.082

57   year                                                               0.257**     0.017

     ethintdum.year

58     1.year                                                          -0.037**     0.001

59   _cons                                                            -24.166**     1.478

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *That's the version that uses a continuous variable year to interract with ethnic intermarriage.

. poisgof

 

         Goodness-of-fit chi2  =  25337.98

         Prob > chi2(166)      =    0.0000

 

. *the change over time per year, -0.037 is roughly equivalent to 1/10 of the 1980 change

. *or 1/20 of the 1990 change from 1970 that we got in the previous model.

. *The baseline value of ethnintdum is larger because it's figured at year=0, in this case

>  1900

. *In other words, the model extrapolates back to 1900 and gives a very high ethnic endoga

> my for that year

.

. desmat: poisson meth*mgen

, invalid name

r(198);

 

. desmat: poisson count meth*mgen

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   Poisson regression

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   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                           -1375789.526

   LR chi square:                                                             1753648.242

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                            9

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.389

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

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nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

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   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                           1.654**     0.037

2      Oth_H                                                            1.316**     0.038

3      Oth_NH                                                           0.354**     0.044

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.448**     0.035

     mgen

5      2                                                                3.256**     0.034

     meth.mgen

6      Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.423**     0.038

7      Oth_H.2                                                         -2.992**     0.040

8      Oth_NH.2                                                        -2.230**     0.046

9      Wht_NH.2                                                         0.058       0.036

10   _cons                                                              4.054**     0.034

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*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *10 terms for a saturated meth*mgen, which is just 5*2

. desmat: poisson count meth*mgen feth*fgen

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   Poisson regression

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   Dependent variable                                                               count

   Optimization:                                                                       ml

   Number of observations:                                                            225

   Initial log likelihood:                                                   -2252613.647

   Log likelihood:                                                            -338721.041

   LR chi square:                                                             3827785.214

   Model degrees of freedom:                                                           18

   Pseudo R-squared:                                                                0.850

   Prob:                                                                            0.000

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nr Effect                                                               Coeff        s.e.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   count

     meth

1      Mex_Am                                                           1.654**     0.037

2      Oth_H                                                            1.316**     0.038

3      Oth_NH                                                           0.354**     0.044

4      Wht_NH                                                           2.448**     0.035

     mgen

5      2                                                                3.918**     0.034

     meth.mgen

6      Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.423**     0.038

7      Oth_H.2                                                         -2.992**     0.040

8      Oth_NH.2                                                        -2.230**     0.046

9      Wht_NH.2                                                         0.058       0.036

     feth

10     Mex_Am                                                           1.386**     0.044

11     Oth_H                                                            1.393**     0.044

12     Oth_NH                                                           1.530**     0.043

13     Wht_NH                                                           2.777**     0.041

     fgen

14     2                                                                4.168**     0.040

     feth.fgen

15     Mex_Am.2                                                        -2.052**     0.045

16     Oth_H.2                                                         -2.963**     0.046

17     Oth_NH.2                                                        -3.329**     0.045

18     Wht_NH.2                                                        -0.229**     0.041

19   _cons                                                             -1.190**     0.052

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*  p < .05

** p < .01

 

. *19 terms here because the second 5*2 table has one redundant piece of information, the

> total count

. log close

       log:  C:\AAA Miker Files\newer web pages\soc_388_notes\soc_388_2003\class 8.log

  log type:  text

 closed on:  22 Oct 2003, 12:22:36

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