Joshua D. Rauh
Director of Research and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Ormond Family Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA 94305
The Return Expectations of Institutional Investors (with Aleksandar Andonov), October 2017.
Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans (with Irina Stefanescu and Stephen Zeldes), 2017
Pension Promises and Solvency: The Effects of Low Interest Rates, December 2016.
State Taxation and the Reallocation of Business Activity: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data (with Xavier Giroud), 2017, Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Online Appendix available here [link]
Political Representation and Governance: Evidence from the Investment Decisions of Public Pension Funds (with Aleksandar Andonov and Yael Hochberg), 2017, Journal of Finance, Forthcoming
Online Appendix available here [link]
Public Data available here [link]
Linking Benefits to Investment Performance in US Public Pension Systems (with Robert Novy-Marx), 2014, Journal of Public Economics 116, 47-61.
Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises (with Robert Novy-Marx), 2014, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 6(1), 193-229.
Itís the Market: The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top Talent (with Steven N. Kaplan), Summer 2013, Journal of Economic Perspectives 27(3), 35-56.
Family, Education, and Sources of Wealth Among the Richest Americans, 1982-2012 (with Steven N. Kaplan), 2013, American Economic Review P&P 103(3), 158-162.
Our data on backgrounds of Forbes 400 available here [link]
Local Overweighting and Underperformance: Evidence from Limited Partner Private Equity Investments (with Yael Hochberg), 2013, Review of Financial Studies 26(2), 403-451
Appendix available here [link]
Explaining Corporate Capital Structure: Product Markets, Leases, and Asset Similarity (with Amir Sufi), latest version June 2011, Review of Finance 16(1), 115-155
Data appendix available here [link]
Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses (with Robert Novy-Marx), latest version March 2011, American Economic Journal: Policy, forthcoming
Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth? (with Robert Novy-Marx), Journal of Finance 66(4), 2011, 1207-1245
Winner, 2011 Smith Breeden Prize, First Prize Paper for the best capital markets paper published in the Journal of Finance
State breakdown of $2.5 trillion unfunded public
pension liability at the state level [link]
Policy Options for State Pension Systems and Their Impact on Plan Liabilities (with Robert Novy-Marx), Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 10(2), 173-194
Capital Structure and Debt Structure (with Amir Sufi), Review of Financial Studies 23(12), 2010, 4242-4280.
Public dataset [data]
The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans (with Robert Novy-Marx), Journal of Economic Perspectives 23(4), 2009, 191-210.
Summary available in Kellogg Insight
Wall Street and Main Street: What Contributes to the Rise in the Highest Incomes? (with Steven N. Kaplan), Review of Financial Studies 23(3), 2010, 1004-1050.
Public pre-publication version on SSRN [link]
Risk Shifting versus Risk Management: Investment Policy in Corporate Pension Plans, Review of Financial Studies 22(7), 2009, 2687-2734.
Defined Contribution Plans, Defined Benefit Plans, and the Accumulation of Retirement Wealth (with James Poterba, Steven Venti, and David Wise), Journal of Public Economics 91(10), 2007, 2062-2086.
Own Company Stock in Defined Contribution Pension Plans: A Takeover Defense?, Journal of Financial Economics 81(2), 2006, 379-410.
Earnings Manipulation, Pension Assumptions, and Managerial Investment Decisions (with Daniel Bergstresser and Mihir Desai), Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(1), 2006, 157-195
Winner, 2004 Barclays Global Investor Best Symposium Paper of the European Finance Association
Investment and Financing Constraints: Evidence from the Funding of Corporate Pension Plans, Journal of Finance 61(1), 2006, 33-71
Winner, 2006 Brattle Prize, First Prize Paper for the best corporate finance paper published in the Journal of Finance
Winner, 2004 Western Finance Association Award for best corporate finance paper
Some Popular Writing and Interviews
Hidden Debt, Hidden Deficits: How Pension Promises Are Consuming State And Local Budgets, 2017 Edition, Hoover Institution Essay.
Unfunded Pension Debts of U.S. States Still Exceed $3 Trillion, 25 August 2015, Forbes Investing blog hosted by the Pension Research Council.
Relief for Citiesí Budget Busting Health Care Costs (with Robert Pozen), Wall Street Journal, 26 July 2015
Podcast on EconTalk with Russ Roberts, 5 November 2012
Start Paying or Stop Promising, New York Times Room For Debate, 27 February 2011
Materials on Retirement Finance
Webinar: Investment Strategies for Long-Term Financial Planning, 7 November 2013
with Josh Rauh (Moderator), William F. Sharpe, John Ameriks, and John Cuniff
Crisis in Public Employee Pensions, 5 December 2013
with Josh Rauh (Moderator), Richard Ravitch, Sean McShea, David Crane, and Mark Dingley
Why City Pension Problems Have Not Improved, and a Roadmap Forward, 2016, in Public Pensions and City Solvency, ed. Susan Wachter, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top Talent, 2015, in Inequality and Economic Policy: Essays in Memory of Gary Becker, ed. Stanford: Hoover Press.
Financial Valuation of PBGC Insurance with Market-Implied Default Probabilities (with Robert Novy-Marx and Jules van Binsbergen), 2014, Tax Policy and the Economy 28, 133-154.
The Crisis in Local Government Pensions in the United States (with Robert Novy-Marx), 2011, in Growing Old: Paying for Retirement and Institutional Money Management after the Financial Crisis, Robert Litan and Richard Herring, eds., Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.
Contains city and county breakdown of $0.6 trillion unfunded liabilities at the local level
Related comment in the New York Times Room for Debate Blog [link]
Covered in the
Front page of the
Are State Public Pensions Sustainable? Why the Federal Government Should Worry About State Pension Liabilities, National Tax Journal 63(3), 2010 (Forum)
Earlier version prepared for "Train Wreck: A Conference on America's Looming Fiscal Crisis," January 2010 [link]
Related blog post [link]
Evaluation of Risk in Retirement Savings Accounts (with James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise), 2005, in
Asset Allocation Strategies and the Distribution of 401(k) Retirement Wealth
(with James Poterba, Steven Venti and David Wise)
How Elastic is the Corporate Income Tax Base? (with Jonathan Gruber) in Taxing Corporate Income in the 21st Century, Cambridge University Press, Alan Auerbach, James R. Hines, and Joel Slemrod (eds.), 2007.
Rotman Journal of Pension Management 2(2), 2009, 18-25
Some Resources on the State Pension Crisis
Presented 22 October 2010 in Columbia, SC at a Roundtable hosted by Governor Mark Sanford
Presented 8 July 2010 in Sacramento at a Pension Roundtable hosted by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
Congressional Testimony, 24 February 2011 [link]
The Pension Bomb, The Milken Institute Review, 2011Q1, [link]
Opinions and Blog Posts
Washington Post, 19 October 2012
Posted on New York Times Room For Debate, 7 February 2011
Posted on Everything Finance, 20 September 2010
Pension Security Bonds: A New Plan to Address the Pension Crisis (with Robert Novy-Marx), The Economists' Voice 7(3), 2010
Very short version on the New York Times blog "Room for Debate", 20 May 2010 [link]
Posted on Everything Finance, 15 April 2010
Posted on Everything Finance, 22 March 2010
A Bankruptcy to Save GM (with Luigi Zingales), 19 November 2008
Bankruptcy is Best to Save GM (with Luigi Zingales), The Economists' Voice 6(4), 2009
Abbreviated version published in the Sunday Chicago Tribune, 23 November 2008 [link]
Related Letter to The New York Times, 3 December 2008 [link]
Funding Soft Liabilities (with Robert Novy-Marx)
Joshua Rauh Stanford