# Worksheet 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis

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1. A priori, do you think vaccines or mosquito nets are a better idea, and why?


2. What are sources of benefit for Malaria prevention? How should we quantify benefit? 



3. What are sources of cost for a vaccination or net distribution campaign? How should we quantify cost?


4. **Mosquito Nets: benefits and costs.**
Set up a Fermi-style calculation for (a) the benefit and (b) the cost of distributing mosquito nets.
Here are some facts that Tselil compiled/condensed to help us:

- An unvaccinated child in sub-Saharan Africa will experience 1-3 Malaria infections per year in early childhood.

- The infection fatality rate in the population is about 1 death per 400 clinical cases.

- An insecticide-treated mosquito net costs \$2 to manufacture

- One net remains effective in its protection for about 3 years. 

- On average each net is shared by 2 people.

- People sleeping under a net are half as likely to contract Malaria as those sleeping without a net.

    (a) Benefit:


    (b) Cost:




5. **Vaccines: benefits and costs.**
Set up a Fermi-style calculation for (a) the benefit and (b) the cost of a vaccination campaign.
Here are some additional facts that Tselil compiled/simplified to help us:

- The vaccine is most effective if the first dose is followed by a booster 1.5 years later. 
    - Children who receive both doses are 15-25% less likely to die of Malaria than those not vaccinated.
    - For simplicity, assume children who only get one dose see no change in chance of death.

- Attrition: only 35% of children who get one dose follow up with a booster. 
    - That means that you have to give about 4 doses on average per full vaccination (because .65/.35 ~ 2 children will have only one dose for each fully vaccinated child)

- A single dose of the vaccine costs \$10.

- The vaccine must be kept cold and administered by a trained professional.

    (a) Benefit


    (b) Cost 


6. What is the cost/benefit ratio of each option? Which option is better? Are you surprised?


7. Which components of our calculation are you least confident in?