Throughout the period of the Cold War, a constant concern of the United States and its citizens was the real threat of nuclear war. With the end of the Cold War, most Americans erroneously assumed that the threat of nuclear war would go with it. Unfortunately this is not the case. many Americans may feel more at ease now about nuclear war than they did during the troubled times of the Cold War, and with good reason. Successful peace talks and treaties that have been implemented appear to be leading us down the path towards total nuclear disarmament.

Yet another reason to make Americans believe that the threat is gone is the chaos in the former Soviet Union. The former Soviet Union is no longer the same dominating power it once was during the years of the Cold War, it has been struggling both socially and economically. The people of the former Soviet Union are having troubles adjusting to their newly adopted way of living. It is these troubles that open the doors to the type of nuclear threats that we must be concerned with. As Americans, we must understand that the threat of nuclear warfare does not only come from the nations that have established nuclear technologies and are capable to launch attacks. Many other possible, and potentially more dangerous threats exist beyond those nations and their people.

To better understand the problems that resulted from the break-up of the Soviet Union, one must examine the political chaos resulting from the collapse of an entire political system. At the end of the Cold War, the former Soviet Union broke up into fifteen different states. Of these fifteen states, only four of them had nuclear weapons established within their boarders. These four countries included: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Soon after the break-up, Russia, the largest of the four, suggested that all of the nuclear weapons be transported from the other three states and stored and dismantled within the boarders of Russia, pursuant to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (S.T.A.R.T.). At first the other three states did not agree with this suggestion. One of the concerns that these states had was that they would lose credibility throughout the world and be susceptible to attack from other countries. They were also concerned that if Russia had all of the nuclear weapons they would become too powerful and the other states would be powerless to stop them. Nevertheless, the other states did agree to transport the weapons back to Russia where they were to be dismantled. This whole process was scheduled to be completed by the end of 1996. Now that Russia had control of all the nuclear weapons that the former Soviet Union had once controlled, the process of dismantling began.

Russia is able to dismantle approximately 3,000 nuclear weapons per year. Considering that since 1941 the Soviet Union has created at least 55,000 nuclear weapons, the dismantlement process will not be completed for some time. Since disarmament is such a long process, many of these nuclear weapons must be stored in warehouses or other various holding facilities. There are four potential places where nuclear technologies can be leaked. First is Russia’s stockpile of nuclear weapons that is controlled by the Ministry of Defense. This stockpile contains about 15,000 to 25,000 nuclear weapons. Second, the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy (Minatom) controls a large stockpile of weapons-grade fissile material that it both produces and extracts from dismantled nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons use plutonium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) to create the fission reaction that causes the massive explosion. Plutonium and HEU are thus called fissile materials. Third, Minatom also has control of an enormous amount of fissile material produced by Russian nuclear power-generating reactors. Fourth, there is a fairly large amount of fissile material scattered across Russia in research institutes and facilities in order to study naval propulsion and space reactor programs. The most secure of these is the stockpile controlled by the Russian ministry of Defense. Russia’s military is able to control the shipment and deployment of their nuclear weapons much more efficiently than the other three. The military’s security systems are much more secure as well. In order for the nuclear weapon to be used there is an arming code that must be entered into the weapon’s computer. All of these codes are kept secured someplace in Moscow. For this reason and others, anybody interested n obtaining unclear technologies may be discouraged to attempt to go through the military.

The other three sources, however, are perfect targets for leakage. Many of the warehouses that are controlled by Russia are not properly secured and they are susceptible to terrorist groups or Russian Mafia, both of which have been gaining power throughout the past few years. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 there have been hundreds of reported break-ins. Of course, the vast majority of these reported break-ins did not turn up any signs of theft, and have been dismissed as hoaxes. The concern is not the large number of these reported incidents, but the few reports that are legitimate. there are at least six known cases of theft or illicit trafficking of fissile material. The first incident occurred in mid-1992, a chemical engineer by the name of Leonid Smirnov stole approximately 3.7 pounds of HEU from the Luch Scientific Production Association at Podolsk, Russia. The second known incident was when Captain Alexei Tikhomirov tried to sell 10 pounds of HEU, after he had stolen it from a minimally secured warehouse, for only $50,000. The third took place not even a year after. On May 10, 1994, the German police found 5.6 grams of super-grade plutonium in the garage of Adolf Jackle, a suspected counterfeiter. the police did not even suspect Jackle for possessing this nuclear material. he was being searched for connection with a suspected counterfeiting ring. One month later, on June 13, 1994, Bavarian police fell upon .8 grams of HEU during a routine sting operation. No one knows where the material came from, but it is suspected that it came from a Russian research reactor or a naval fuel assembly. The fifth incident followed shortly after, on August 10, 1994, almost a pound of near-weapons-grade plutonium was again seized by German police. This plutonium was carried onto a plane in a suitcase in a flight from Moscow. Once again, the origin of this material is unknown today. The last incident that is known occurred on December 14, 1994. Approximately six pounds of HEU was seized in Prague. The people that stole this material were not known criminals, rather, they were nuclear scientists. The fact that the police were not able to trace the origin of the materials that were stolen only illustrates more how loosely guarded these nuclear storage facilities really are, and why the threat of nuclear leakage is very real.

It is not likely that the economic situations in Russia will get better anytime soon. This could mean that the threat of nuclear leakage could get much worse before it is to get better. "Nuclear leakage constitutes the most serious direct threat to vital U.S. interests today and for the foreseeable future. The new threat of nuclear leakage caused by the Soviet collapse has transformed the nature of the proliferation problem for the United States (and for other states seriously concerned with proliferation)." The threat not only comes from the smugglers and terrorist groups that are trying to obtain the nuclear material by theft, but as seen through one of the cases, some Russians with access to the material are more likely to sell this material on the black market because of the trouble that Russia’s economy has been going through.

The social and economic hardships in the former Soviet Union are not getting any better. Many Russian citizens have been put in a position that they are not use to. The political transformation that the Russian people have gone through has left many once wealthy citizens without anything. Some of these citizens have access to nuclear materials, or actually have the knowledge of how to create and produce a nuclear weapon. These people are finding that they are able to provide and support their families through some form of corruption. The black market is constantly searching for nuclear material that it can sell, and so far this demand has induced the supply.

"The nuclear leakage problem should be on of the United States’ most urgent national security concerns. Nuclear leakage would greatly increase the likelihood that forces hostile to the United States - whether states or terrorist groups - could gain possession of nuclear weapons or the means to make them." This nuclear leakage could create some consequences that would be detrimental to the United States. First, the leakage is a fast, and cheap route to nuclear proliferation, something the U.S. does not want, and second, it could provide other countries with access to nuclear capabilities, thereby making the threat of nuclear terrorism much worse.

Two countries that are most actively pursuing nuclear technologies both through the black market and development of their own are North Korea and Iraq. This is troubling to the United States because in the last 50 years the U.S. has had confrontations with each of them. Because of the United States world power, it is in a very vulnerable position and is very susceptible to a nuclear attack. Not only because the United States is the only country to actually drop a bomb on another country, but the U.S. is also an optimal target to a country or other group that is looking to demonstrate its nuclear power because it would send the loudest message to the rest of the world. This was not necessarily the case during the Cold War. The Soviet union was also a world leader, and really had no reason to demonstrate its nuclear power. Both sides had nuclear weapons in order to defend themselves, and not to attack.

One of the largest differences between the Cold War and this time after the Cold War, is that the United States no longer knows its enemy. During the Cold War, the United States knew that its threat came from the Soviet Union, and communism, but now we are not able to focus on one single enemy. We do not even know if a true enemy exists.

The only thing that the United States can do about these possible leaks of nuclear technology is to continue its Non-proliferation policies. It is important to keep the nuclear technology out of the hands of people and countries that do not want to use them in a productive manner. As far as the question of how safe we are, it is impossible to say. Many sources believe that of all the nuclear leakage that has taken place in the former Soviet Union, of the amount of fissile material, and nuclear technologies missing, there is no where near enough material to be used to create an entire nuclear weapon. But this does not mean that in the future more material will leak out of Russia. Any aid the United States can give to Russia in order to secure these facilities would be in both countries best interest. The space program is one possible way to keep the Russian scientists busy and out of North Korea. For years the space programs have been a source of pride for a country. The recent development of a new mulit-national space station could be just the project that will effectively unify Russia and help keep their scientists working. Only time will tell the complete story of the nuclear problems facing the United States.