Debates
Contrary to conventional wisdom, debates rarely have a direct, measurable impact on presidential preference. But the last close race is one of the few exceptions: In 1980 Ronald Reagan went into the first debate trailing by eight points, asked voters if they were any “better off,” and a few days later led by three.
     Whether lightning strikes this time for either candidate remains to be seen. But it does look like plenty of eyeballs will be there: 77 percent of likely voters say they plan to watch the first presidential debate Tuesday night. Another 57 percent plan to watch the vice-presidential debate Thursday.
     It doesn’t take much to move things: If a mere 5 percent of voters moved one way, it would turn a dead heat into a 10-point gap — which may help explain the movement in some recent polls. (So may their definition of likely voters, who in this poll account for 52 percent of the voting-age population.)
     Indeed in this survey, 10 percent of likely voters are still up for grabs — those who don’t have a strong preference and may change their minds, or are outright undecided. This is down from 15 percent in early September; more people are settling into their choices. But there are still more than enough lightly committed voters to break the race open.

The Sexes
The gender gap remains huge — far bigger than usual. Women support Gore by a 18-point margin in this poll, 56-38 percent, while men support Bush by 13 points, 53-40 percent. That’s a 31-point gender gap. The average is 13 points in the last five elections.
     Gore’s support from women is about the same as Bill Clinton’s in 1996, and much better than it was the last time a Democrat lost, 1988. In turn, Bush’s support from men is close to his father’s in 1988 — and much better than the GOP nominee’s in 1992 or 1996.
    

ABCNEWS/Washington Post 10/1
	Gore	Bush
Women	56%	38%
Men	40%	53%
Gap: 31 points

Exit Poll — 1996
	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Women	54%	38%	7%
Men	43%	44%	10%
Gap: 17 points

Exit Poll — 1992
	Clinton	Bush	Perot
Women	45%	37%	17%
Men	41%	38%	21%
Gap:  5 points

Exit Poll — 1988
	Dukakis	Bush
Women	50%	50%
Men	41%	57%
Gap: 16 points

Role of Government
A key reason for the division between men and women is their differing views of the role of government. Seventy percent of men prefer “smaller government with fewer services.” Far fewer women, 48 percent agree; instead women are 21 points more likely to favor “larger government with many services” or be undecided.
     It matters in vote preferences: All told, 60 percent of likely voters favor smaller government, and they prefer Bush over Gore by 63-31 percent. Just 32 percent favor larger government, but they prefer Gore over Bush by 79-16 percent.

Vote Preference:
Prefer:	All	Gore	Bush
Smaller government	60%	31%	63%
Larger government	32%	79%	16%

These results explain why the contest is so close despite Gore’s edge on key issues: There’s a conflict between voters’ preference for Gore on some issues, and their preference for Bush on the broader size-of-government question. It’s a classic battle.
     Given these results, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see Bush in the debates try to paint Gore as a “big government Democrat” — or to see Gore echo Clinton’s proclamation that the age of big government is gone.

Issues
As is usual in the absence of war or a bad economy, a variety of social issues lead the list of voter concerns this year. Top of the charts has been education, and here Gore continues to hold the edge. Fifty percent say they trust Gore more than Bush to handle education; 39 percent prefer Bush.
     Gore leads by an even bigger margin, 54-36 percent, in trust to help the middle class — a central theme of his campaign, and one on which Republican candidates, seen by many as favoring the wealthy, long have been vulnerable. (Among likely voters with household incomes of $30,000 to $50,000, Gore leads Bush by five points.)
     Gore has an edge on a third and more recent issue, oil and gasoline prices: He leads Bush in trust to hold them down, by 45-36 percent.
     On two other issues the candidates have battled to a standstill: Taxes, on which Bush has led in the past, but the two are now tied; and “holding down health care costs,” also a tie. (In the past, phrased as “improving the health care system,” Gore has led.)

Registered Voters on Issues:
Candidate you trust on:	Gore	Bush	Advantage
Helping the middle class	54%	36%	Gore +18
Improving education	50%	39%	Gore +11
Holding down oil/ gas prices	45%	36%	Gore + 9
Holding down health care costs	44%	42%	Gore + 2
Holding down taxes	43%	45%	Gore + 2

Oil & Politics
As an aside, this poll finds something of a split opinion on the Clinton administration’s decision to release some of the government’s strategic oil reserves in an effort to hold down prices. On one hand, 54 percent support the move. On the other, the same number, 54 percent, think the main purpose was to help Gore in the campaign.

Clinton Fatigue
This in turn brings up the broader question of Bill Clinton, who still looms large over this election. The nation continues to divide into three groups — those who like Clinton and his policies; those who dislike Clinton and his policies; and the critical third group, those who like Clinton’s polices, but dislike him personally.
     That third group of Clinton-fatigued voters is a natural Gore support group on the basis of policy, but he’s had trouble winning them over in big enough numbers. In this poll 55 percent of that group favors Gore — enough to make it a close race; not enough for Gore to break away.

Vote Preference on Clinton:
	All	Gore	Bush
Like Clinton and his policies	32%	91%	7%
Dislike him and his policies	27%	6%	87%
Like his policies, dislike him	32%	55%	37%

Other Groups
There are significant regional differences in this poll — a sizable Gore lead in the northeast, a slight Bush lead in the Midwest, and essentially dead heats in the South and West. Also, it’s Bush +4 among independents, a key swing voter group; but Gore +13 among white Catholics, another crucial group.
     Gore has a big lead in large cities, with a very small edge to Bush in small towns and rural areas. In the suburbs Gore holds an 11-point lead in voter preferences — a dead heat among suburban men, and a 20-point Gore lead among suburban women.

Close?
A final note: Polls are not predictive and don’t try to be. A close race today does not mean it will finish close. A look at the last two close races in early October is instructive: In 1980, Jimmy Carter led Reagan by four points in a Gallup poll on Oct. 13. It was close, but it didn’t end close: Reagan won by 10 points in an electoral landslide.
     In 1976, by contrast, Carter led Gerald Ford by two points on Oct. 4. And that one stayed close: Carter won the election by just a two-point margin.

Methodology
This ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2000. The results are based on a random sample of 995 likely voters, drawn from interviews with 1,801 adults; the issues questions are based on interviews with a subset of 947 registered voters. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

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