EMF Events

Oil Disruption Risk Assessment

Conference

Date and Time
February 11, 2005

Availability
Open to the public
No RSVP required

Purpose: Assess key information for developing the probability of a disruption.

8:00 AM	Continental Breakfast (in Meeting Room)
8:30 AM	Welcome, Introduction and Meeting Objectives
8:45 AM	Review Methodology & Pilot Study results Approach and working assumptions Influence diagram Sample output from pilot study Historical oil disruptions
9:30 AM	Probability assessment training Definitions Techniques to control biases
10:15 AM	Break
10:30 AM	Common Underlying Event Middle East conflict Coordinated OPEC Cutback
11:00 PM	Saudi region event Internal factors Shortfall – part 1
12:00 PM	Lunch
12:30 PM	Saudi region events (continued) Shortfall – part 2 Duration
Divide into two groups: A & B
1:30 PM	GROUP A: Russian and FSU events GROUP B: Other Persian Gulf event Internal factors Shortfall Duration
3:00 PM	Break
3:15 PM	West of Suez (e.g., Nigeria & Venezuela) event Internal factors Shortfall Duration
3:45 PM	Oil Production and Offset Production scenarios Saudi excess capacity Persian Gulf excess capacity Commercial inventory
4:45 PM	Summary of inputs, questions, next steps
5:00 PM	Adjourn

Location
Marymount University
Arlington, VA