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Distribution of Timing of First Government Order 
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name "fig:order-timing"

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	filename ../input/descriptive/hist_first_order_date_noweight.pdf
	scale 70

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\size small
Note:
 Figure shows the distribution of government order effective start dates over time and across counties.
 Each bar represents the number of counties (y-axis) for which the first order of a given type went into effect on the date specified (x-axis).
 Stay-at-home and business closing orders are shown in blue and orange bars respectively.
 See Section 
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 for detail on data sources and processing.
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Trends in Average Mobility and Health
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name "fig:trends"

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Panel A:
 Mobility
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\align center

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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/descriptive/by_order_timing_visits_norm.pdf
	width 100text%

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Panel B:
 Health
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\align center

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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/descriptive/by_order_timing_new_cases_norm.pdf
	width 100text%

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Note:
 Figure reports trends in average mobility and health by county order timing and week.
 Panel A plots the log of daily average POI visits,
 normalizing relative to the week starting January 29,
 2020.
 Panel B plots the log of daily new COVID-19 cases,
 normalized to the week starting March 25,
 2020.
 In both panels,
 averages are weighted by population and taken across counties and days prior to taking logs or normalization.
 `Early Order' indicates counties with a stay-at-home order on or before March 25,
 2020.
 `Late Order' indicates counties with a stay-at-home order after this point.
 `No Order` indicates counties which did not issue a stay-at-home order during this sample period.
 The dashed vertical line indicates the week starting March 25,
 2020.
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Geographic Variation in Social Distancing and Public Policy
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name "fig:maps"

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Panel A:
 % Change in SafeGraph Visits
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\align center

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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/descriptive/map_county_continental_visits_pct_ch.pdf
	width 100line%

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Panel B:
 Shelter-in-Place Order Effective Start Date
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/descriptive/map_county_continental_sip_effective_date.pdf
	width 100line%

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Note:
 This figure shows the U.S.
 geographic distribution of social distancing and public policy responses during the early COVID-19 pandemic.
 Panel A shows for each county the percent change in aggregate visits between the week beginning January 29,
 2020 and the week beginning April 8,
 2020.
 Blue shading denotes a more negative percent change in visits during the latter week relative to the former.
 Red shading indicates an increase or a smaller decrease in visits.
 These visits are sourced from SafeGraph’s mobile device location data.
 Panel B shades U.S.
 counties by the effective start date for the earliest shelter-in-place order issued (see Section 
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reference "subsec:data_policy"
plural "false"
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 for sources).
 Blue shading indicates an earlier order,
 while red shading indicates that an order was issued later or was never issued.
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Heterogeneity in Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on Social Distancing
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name "fig:te_heterogeneity"

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Panel A:
 Vs.
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Order Date
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/event_studies/csa/log_visits_te_by_order_date.pdf
	scale 70

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Panel B:
 By CSA's Vote Share Majority
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/event_studies/csa/log_visits_sip_DemocratCSAs.pdf
	width 48line%

\end_inset


\begin_inset space \quad{}
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/event_studies/csa/log_visits_sip_RepublicanCSAs.pdf
	width 48line%

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\size small
Note:
 Figure plots heterogeneity in estimated treatment effects across implementation dates or across geographies.
 Panel A plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{1}$
\end_inset

 from the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:event-study"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

),
 run separately by date of the stay-at-home order,
 using the log of total POI visits in a CSA for a given day.
 Each regression is run on a sample of CSAs that either had an order issued on the day of interest,
 never had an order issued,
 or had an order issued later than April 6.
 As a result,
 each 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{1}$
\end_inset

 is estimated relative to the set of CSAs that never had orders or had orders after April 6.
 The regressions include CSA fixed effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\mu_{i}$
\end_inset

 and date fixed effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\delta_{t}$
\end_inset

.
 CSAs are weighted by population in the regression.
 Robust standard errors are used for the line of best fit.
 Panel B follows Figure 
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "fig:event_study-1"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

 Panel A in plotting estimated treatment effects on mobility outcomes for all leads and lags,
 but does so separately for CSAs that consist of a majority of Democrats (left) vs.
\begin_inset space \space{}
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a majority of Republicans (right).
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Effect of Mandatory Business Closure or Simultaneous Orders 
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name "fig:event_study_bus_simultaneous"

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Panel A:
 Effect on Mobility
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\backslash
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\backslash
subfloat[Business Closure]{
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_visits_bus.pdf}} 
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vspace{3mm}
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\backslash
subfloat[Combined Business Closure and Stay-at-Home]{
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_visits_both.pdf}} 
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Panel B:
 Effect on Consumer Spending
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\backslash
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_total_spend_bus.pdf}} 
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vspace{3mm}
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\backslash
subfloat[Combined Business Closure and Stay-at-Home]{
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_total_spend_both.pdf}} 
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Panel C:
 Effect on Employment
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\backslash
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_count_hours_pos_bus.pdf}} 
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vspace{3mm}
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\backslash
subfloat[Combined Business Closure and Stay-at-Home]{
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label{sfig:a}
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includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_count_hours_pos_both.pdf}} 
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Note:
 Figure plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{k}$
\end_inset

 of policy orders on different outcomes,
 using the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:event-study"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

) at the CSA-day level.
 `Business Closure' subfigures analyze event studies of business closure orders.
 `Combined Business Closure and Stay-at-Home' restricts to CSAs that implemented their business closure and stay-at home orders at the same time.
 Panel A shows the effect on mobility,
 using the log of total POI visits in the SafeGraph data.
 Panel B shows the effect on consumer spending,
 using the log of total spending in Facteus' debit card sample.
 Panel C shows the effect on employment,
 using the log number of individuals with positive work hours from the Homebase sample.
 All regressions include CSA fixed effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\mu_{i}$
\end_inset

 and date fixed effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\delta_{t}$
\end_inset

.
 CSAs are weighted by population in the regression.
 Standard errors are clustered at the CSA level irrespective of order timing.
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Simulations
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name "fig:simulations"

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Panel A:
 Preferred Estimator
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/plac_log_new_cases.pdf
	scale 35

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	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_new_cases.pdf
	scale 35

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Panel B:
 Preferred Estimator but not Controlling for 
\begin_inset Formula $\log(I_{it})$
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	filename ../input/health_simulations/plac_log_new_cases_no_log_I.pdf
	scale 35

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	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_new_cases_no_log_I.pdf
	scale 35

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Panel C:
 Log Cases Event Study with Linear Time Trends (Dave et al.
 2021)
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	filename ../input/health_simulations/plac_log_cases_geography_fe_with_linear_trends_long.pdf
	scale 35

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\begin_inset space \quad{}
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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_cases_geography_fe_with_linear_trends_long.pdf
	scale 35

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\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
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\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
Note:
 Figure plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{k}$
\end_inset

 from the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:event-study-1"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

) using the data simulated from an SIRD model.
 The first column uses data simulated from an SIRD model where the true treatment effect of the stay-at-home order is 
\begin_inset Formula $\tau=0$
\end_inset

.
 The second column uses data simulated from an SIRD model where the true treatment effect of the stay-at-home order is 
\begin_inset Formula $\tau=-.1$
\end_inset

.
 Panel A is our preferred estimator.
 Panel B is the preferred estimator,
 but does not control for 
\begin_inset Formula $\log(I_{it})$
\end_inset

.
 Panel C is the Dave et al.
 (2021) estimator that uses log cases on the left-hand side and controls for geography-specific linear time trends.
 Geographies are weighted by population in the regression.
 Standard errors are clustered at the geography level.
 See Appendix Section 
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "subsec:simulations"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

 for detail regarding this simulation exercise.
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\end_inset


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Simulations with Alternative Specifications
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name "fig:simulations_alt"

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Panel A:
 Preferred Estimator but Adding Geography FEs
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\align center

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	filename ../input/health_simulations/plac_log_new_cases_geography_fe.pdf
	scale 35

\end_inset


\begin_inset space \quad{}
\end_inset


\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_new_cases_geography_fe.pdf
	scale 35

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\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

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\align center

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Panel B:
 Preferred Estimator but Setting 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 at Half Its True Value
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\end_layout

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\align center

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	scale 35

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\begin_inset space \quad{}
\end_inset


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	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_new_cases_small_gamma.pdf
	scale 35

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\align center

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Panel C:
 Preferred Estimator but Setting 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 at Twice Its True Value
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\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


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\align center

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\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/plac_log_new_cases_large_gamma.pdf
	scale 35

\end_inset


\begin_inset space \quad{}
\end_inset


\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/log_new_cases_large_gamma.pdf
	scale 35

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
Note:
 Figure plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{k}$
\end_inset

 from the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:event-study-1"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

) using the data simulated from an SIRD model.
 The first column uses data simulated from an SIRD model where the true treatment effect of the stay-at-home order is 
\begin_inset Formula $\tau=0$
\end_inset

.
 The second column uses data simulated from an SIRD model where the true treatment effect of the stay-at-home order is 
\begin_inset Formula $\tau=-.1$
\end_inset

.
 Panel A is the preferred estimator,
 but adds geography fixed effects.
 Panel B is the preferred estimator,
 but sets 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 to half its true value.
 Panel C is the preferred estimator,
 but sets 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 to twice its true value.
 Geographies are weighted by population in the regression.
 Standard errors are clustered at the geography level.
 See Appendix Section 
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "subsec:simulations"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

 for detail regarding this simulation exercise.
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Dave et al.
 (2021) Estimators for Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID Cases
\begin_inset CommandInset label
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name "fig:dave_et_al"

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Panel A:
 7-day Preperiod as in Dave et al.
 (2021)
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/replication/dave_et_al_individual_short.pdf
	scale 45

\end_inset


\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\emph on
Panel B:
 14-day Preperiod
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/replication/dave_et_al_individual_14.pdf
	scale 45

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\emph on
Panel C:
 21-day Preperiod
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/health_simulations/replication/dave_et_al_individual.pdf
	scale 45

\end_inset


\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size footnotesize
Note:
 Figure plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{k}$
\end_inset

 from the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:dave_et_al"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

) using the log of cases in a state for a given day and including state-specific linear trends.
 Panel A restricts the preperiod to 7 days.
 Panels B and C are the same as Panel A,
 except they use a 14- and 21-day preperiod.
 States are not balanced across the event window.
 States are weighted by population in the regression.
 Data is restricted to dates on or before April 20,
 2020.
 Standard errors are clustered at the state level.
 See Appendix Section 
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "subsec:simulations"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

 for detail regarding this simulation exercise.
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Float figure
placement document
alignment document
wide false
sideways false
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\begin_inset Caption Standard

\begin_layout Plain Layout
Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on Contact Rate,
 All 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

 Values
\begin_inset CommandInset label
LatexCommand label
name "fig:event_study_health_alt_gamma"

\end_inset


\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center
\begin_inset ERT
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
begin{centering}
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel A:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 0$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_0.pdf}} 
\backslash
vspace{3mm}
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel B:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 1/12$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_12.pdf}} 
\backslash

\backslash

\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel C:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 1/9$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_9.pdf}} 
\backslash
vspace{3mm}
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel D:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 1/6$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_6.pdf}} 
\backslash

\backslash

\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel E:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 1/3$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_3.pdf}} 
\backslash
vspace{3mm}
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
subfloat[Panel F:
 $
\backslash
gamma = 1$]{
\backslash
label{sfig:a}
\backslash
includegraphics[scale=.35]{../input/event_studies/csa/log_new_cases_absorb_date_1.pdf}} 
\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout


\backslash
end{centering}
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
Note:
 Figure plots estimated treatment effects 
\begin_inset Formula $\omega_{k}$
\end_inset

 from the event-study specification outlined in equation (
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "eq:event-study-1"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

) using the log of new cases in a state for a given day as in Figure 
\begin_inset CommandInset ref
LatexCommand ref
reference "fig:event_study-1"
plural "false"
caps "false"
noprefix "false"
nolink "false"

\end_inset

.
 Each panel uses a different value of 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma$
\end_inset

.
 CSAs are weighted by population in the regression.
 Standard errors are clustered at the CSA level irrespective of order timing.
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Standard
\begin_inset Float figure
placement document
alignment document
wide false
sideways false
status open

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\begin_inset Caption Standard

\begin_layout Plain Layout
Model Fit for Average Log Contact Rates,
 Full Lasso Model
\begin_inset CommandInset label
LatexCommand label
name "fig:scatter_fit"

\end_inset


\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\begin_inset Graphics
	filename ../input/geo_variation/gg_scatter_lasso_predicted.pdf
	scale 65

\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout
\align center

\size small
\begin_inset VSpace defskip
\end_inset


\end_layout

\begin_layout Plain Layout

\size small
Note:
 Figure plots predictions of the estimated fixed differences in CSA log contact rates 
\begin_inset Formula $\hat{{\theta}_{i}}$
\end_inset

 in OLS regressions using 
\begin_inset Formula $\gamma=1/6$
\end_inset

.
 The plotted points are sized proportional to CSA population and the top 25 most populous CSAs are filled in and labeled.
 In this figure,
 the fixed effects are averaged using population weights and the population is summed across order timings when a CSA has multiple order timings.
 The solid line is a 45 degree line indicating perfect prediction and the dashed line is a linear fit of the estimated fixed effects on their predictions for the CSAs plotted.
 We drop two observations when plotting to focus on the variation across the majority of CSAs.
\end_layout

\end_inset


\end_layout

\end_body
\end_document
