This page was put together to provide a network for people doing research, writing, and speaking on monetary policy rules. It has not been changed (except to update addresses and omit items that apparently disappeared from cyberspace) since July 2000 when work on monetary policy rules began to expand beyond the scope of one page and powerful internet tools such as Google and Google Scholar began to be developed to provide similar network services, but the page still may be of historical interest. The links are divided into six categories.

Technical articles

Central bank and international
financial institution publications

Speeches and remarks by
monetary policy makers

Writing and research by 
financial market analysts

Pedagogical ideas

News articles




Technical articles



UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor Rules (July 2000) Edward Nelson, Bank of England

Optimal Horizons in Inflation Targeting (July 2000) Nicoletta Batini and Edward Nelson, Bank of England

Is the Taylor Rule the same as the Friedman Rule? (June 2000) Laurian Lungu, Patrick Minford, and Naveen Srinivasan

Learning About a Shift in Trend Output: Implications for Monetary Policy and Inflation (June 2000) Kevin J. Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation, (May 2000) Jesper Linde

The Performance of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Large Open Economy, (May 2000) Akila Weerapana

Activist Stabilization Policy and Inflation: The Taylor Rule in the 1970s, (February 2000) Athanasios Orphanides, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Estimating a Taylor type monetary policy reaction function for the case of a small developing economy, (February 2000)  Jose R. Sanchez-Jung

Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, (February 2000) Lars E. O. Svensson and Mark Woodford

Learning About Monetary Policy Rules (January 2000) James Bullard and Kaushik Mitra, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability, Lars E. O. Svensson, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1999. Commentary by Mark Woodford   

Challenges for Monetary Policy: New and Old, Mervyn King, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1999. Commentary by John B. Taylor     

Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy, (November 1999) Geoffrey Shuetrim and Christopher Thompson, Reserve Bank of Australia

Divergences in the Euro Area: A Cause for Concern?, (November 1999) Nils Björksten and Miika Syrjanen, Bank of Finland Discussion Paper
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility, (October 1999) Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler

Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era, (September 1999) David L. Reifschneider and John C. Williams
The Taylor and Interest Rates in the EMU Area: A Note, (August, 1999) Stefan Gerlach and Gert Schnabel, BIS Working Paper 

The Importance of Systematic Monetary Policy for Economic Activity, (Summer 1999) Michael Dotsey; Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Inflation Targeting and Output Stabilization, (June 1999) Guy Debelle, Reserve Bank of Australia

Recent Developments in the Analysis on Monetary Policy Rules, (June 1999) Bennett McCallum

Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data, (June 1999) Glenn D. Rudebusch and Lars E. O. Svensson 

The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation, (May 1999) Athanasios Orphanides, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective, (May 1999) Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler

A Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Reaction Function, (Spring 1999) Yash Mehra; Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes (April 1999) Robert Amano, Don Coletti and Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada

Optimal monetary policy rules in a rational expectations model of the Phillips curve, (April 1999)   LSE working paper (dp0247) by Peter Clark, Charles Goodhart, and Haizhou Huang, Journal of Monetary Economics

Simplicity Versus Optimality: The Choice of Monetary Policy Rules When Agents Must Learn (March 1999) Robert J. Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen, Federal Reserve Board
Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model (March 1999), Lawence J. Christiano and Christopher J. Gust
Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia, (March 1999) Michael Woodford

Uncertainty and the Taylor Rule in a Simple Model of the Euro Area Economy,  (February 1999) Gert Peersman and Frank Smets
Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective, (February 1999) D. Reifschneider, R. Tetlow,  and J. C. Williams.

Monetary Policy: Recent Theory and Practice, (1998) James Tobin  

The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targetting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Rules, (December 1998) Eric Schalling

The Perils of Taylor Rules, (November 1998) Jess Benhabib, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, and Martin Uribe, 
Output Gap Uncertainty: Does It Matter For The Taylor Rule?, (November 1998) Frank Smets, Working Paper 60, BIS
Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, (November 1998) Andrew Levin, Volker Wieland, and John C. Williams, in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed).

Policy Rules for Open Economies, (October 1998) Laurence Ball in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed) NBER Working Paper W6760

Policy Rules for Inflation Targetting, (October 1998) Glenn Rudebusch and Lars Svensson in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed).

Monetary Policy with Noisy Information, (October 1998) Athanasios Orphanides

More Evidence on the Robustness of the Taylor Rule, (July 1998) Roberto Amano 

Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero, (June 1998) Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland

Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model, (June 1998) Julio J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford, with Comment by Martin Feldstein in John B. Taylor (Ed). Monetary Policy Rules

Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model, (June 1998)  Bennet McCallum and Edward Nelson, Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed).

Learning and the complexity of monetary policy rules, (June 1998) Robert J. Tetlow, Peter von zur Muehlen and Frederico S. Finan, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

The effects of potential output uncertainty on the performance of simple policy rules, (June 1998) Aaron Drew and Benjamin Hunt, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Open Economy Inflation Targetting, (May 1998) Lars E.O. Svennson, NBER Working Paper, No. 6545.

Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real Time Data, (December 1997) Athanasios Orphanides

Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence, (November 1997) Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler

Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules, (April 1997) Bennett McCallum

Efficient Monetary Policy Rules, (March 1997) Laurence Ball, NBER Working Paper, No. 5952.
On Policy Rules for Price Stability, (1997) Richard Black, Tiff Macklin, David Rose

How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Shocks While Maintaining Long Run Price Stability John B. Taylor, in Acheiving Price Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1996 with  Commentary David W. Mullins, Commentary Lars E. O. Svensson, and  General Discussion

Monetary Policy Implications of Greater Fiscal Discipline, John B. Taylor, in Budget Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1996 with Commentary Mervyn King, Commentary Helmut Schieber, and General Discussion.
Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, (1993) John B. Taylor

Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations, (September 1979) John B. Taylor




Central bank and international financial institution publications


The Taylor Rule: Is It a Useful Guide to Understanding Monetary Policy? Robert L. Hetzel, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Quarterly Review, Volume 86, No. 2, Spring 2000. 

Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Joel Bogdanski, Alexandre Antonio Tombini, and Sergio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, Banco Central do Brasil. March 1st, 2000.

Taylor interest rate and Monetary Conditions Index, Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report, April 1999. 

How Useful are Taylor Rules for Monetary Policy? Sharon Kozicki, Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Second Quarter, 1999
The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Price Level Targets Robert Dittmar, William T. Gavin and Finn E. Kydland, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, January-February 1999
Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Forecasts, Nicolleta  Batini and Andrew Haldane, Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, February 1999
How Useful are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?, IMF World Economic Outlook, 1999, Ch. 5, Box 5.1. p. 134.

Describing Fed Behavior,  John  Judd and Glenn Rudebusch,  Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dec.25, 1998

Taylor's Rule and the Fed, John Judd and Glenn M. Rudebusch, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1998
Revisionist History: How Data Revisions Distort Economic Policy Research, David E. Runkle, Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Fall 1998.

Real Time Taylor Rules and the Federal Funds Futures Market, Charles L. Evans, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Third Quarter 1998

Has the Fed Gotten Tougher on Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Weekly Letter, March 31, 1995


Speeches and remarks by monetary policy makers


Structural Change and Monetary Policy, Laurence H. Meyer, Governor of The Federal Reserve Board, March 3, 2000 

No Fixed Policy Rules for the Monetary Policy of the ECB, Otmar Issing, ECB Chief Economist, February 14, 2000

Monetary Policy: Theory in practice, Mervyn King, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, January 7, 2000

A Stabilization Policy Strategy, Edward M. Gramlich, Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, April 22, 1999

100 Days of EMU:  First Experiences and Further Perspectives, (April 1999) Eugenio Domingo Solans, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank

Monetary Policy Rules? William Poole, President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 16, 1999

Monetary Rules, Governor Edward M. Gramlich, Samuleson Lecture, Eastern Economic Association, 1998
Reserve Bank Forecasting: Should We Feel Guilty?  Donald Brash, Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, October 21, 1998

The Strategy of Monetary Policy, Governor Lawrence H. Meyer, March 16, 1998

Rules vs. Discretionary Monetary Policy, Chairman Alan Greenspan, 15th Anniversary of the Center for Economic Policy Research, 1997

Recent Economic Developments and Federal Reserve Policy, Testimony by John P. Lipsky, Prepared for Delivery to the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, House of Representatives, July 23, 1997, pp. 188-192

Remarks, Governor Janet Yellen, March 13, 1996


Writing and research by financial market analysts


Alternative United Kingdom Economic Scenarios, Pricewaterhouse Coopers (2000)

RateWatch #148 - The Fed's Methods. Taylor Rule, (May 22, 1999) Dick Lepre,

G-7 Monetary Policy Easing: Fundamental or Rhetoric? Merrill Lynch

(September 24, 1998)

EMU-11: Rates - Stable Near Term, But Up Later, Salomon Smith Barney 

(May 8, 1998) 

What Drives the Real Funds Rates?, Merrill Lynch (February 27, 1998)

The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy, Testimony by Robert V. DiClemente, Salomon Brothers, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Committee on Banking and Financial Services, House of Representatives, July 23, 1997, pp. 236-258

The Interest Rate and the Taylor Rule, HSBC Markets, US Economics Weekly, May 12, 1997

The Taylor Rule for the G7, Goldman Sachs (January 1997)



Pedagogical ideas

The Taylor Rule Calculator, The Dismal Scientist
Current setting of  monetary policy rules for the United States Estimated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
What is the Taylor Rule? From "Ask an Economist" at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Explanation of the Taylor Rule From the Federal Reserve Bank of  St. Louis home page
Numerical table showing simple policy rule (fits on back of  busines card)
Graph showing simple policy rule (from textbook)
Video and audio on how a monetary policy rule fits into a textbook model of the macroeconomy (12 MB)
Video and audio on a monetary expansion (a shift in the policy rule) that causes an inflationary boom (13 MB)
Video and audio on bust part of a boom-bust cycle (13 MB)


News articles


Amaze Your Friends! Predict the Fed's Next Move, ( May 17, 1999), Kim Clark, U.S. News and World Report

Remembering the Taylor Rule, (March 8, 1999) James Padinha,

Interest Rates still flout all the rules, (July 22, 1996) Financial Times, Robert Chote, 

Monetary Policy, made to measure, (August 10, 1996) The Economist