Global Non-linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production
Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, Ted Miguel

Our paper, published online Oct 21st 2015 in the journal Nature, seeks to answer two main questions:

  1. In recent years, how has economic output around the world been affected by changes in temperature and precipitation?
  2. What do these historical responses imply about the potential future impacts of climate change?

To answer question 1, we analyzed changes in temperature and changes in economic output (as measured by per capita gross domestic product) for 166 countries for the years 1960-2010. To answer question 2, we combined these historical estimates with projections of future climate change from global climate models, and projections of how countries’ economies might develop absent climate change

Our findings demonstrate that changes in temperature have substantially shaped economic growth in both rich and poor countries over the last half century, and that future warming is likely to reduce global economic output, relative to a world without climate change.

Here are some links:

To further explore our country specific projections, or to see how we developed the historical relationship between temperature and economic growth, click on the links below.