Google scholar profile
Working papers
Published and forthcoming
Other writing
Sundry current projects

Working papers

"The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the US" [Jun 2020] (with Anne Driscoll, Sam Heft-Neal, Jenny Xue, Jen Burney, and Michael Wara). NBER Working Paper 27423 

"Productivity dispersion and persistence among the world's most numerous firms" [April 2020] (with Casey Maue and Kyle Emerick), NBER Working Paper 26924

"Does information about climate risk affect property values?" [Feb 2020] (with Miyuki Hino), NBER Working Paper 26807

"Climatic constraints on aggregate economic output." [May 2019] (with Vincent Tanutama), NBER Working paper 25779

"Environmental constraints on elite worker productivity: evidence from professional tennis" [Aug 2019] (with Sam Heft-Neal, Vincent Tanutama, David Lobell, and Miyuki Hino)

"Warming and welfare: global micro evidence" [Oct 2018] (with Sol Hsiang) 

Published and forthcoming

Sam Heft-Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, Kara Voss, and Marshall Burke. 2020. Dust pollution from the Sahara and African infant mortality. Nature Sustainability,[replication data]

Chris Yeh, Anthony Perez, George Azzari, Anne Driscoll, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon, and Marshall Burke. 2020. Using publicly available satellite imagery and deep learning to understand economic wellbeing in Africa. Nature Communications 2020(11), 2583.  [supplementary information] [replication data] [Q&A with King Center]

Gonzalez, David J.X., Allison R. Sherris, Wei Yang, David K. Stevenson, Amy M. Padula, Michael Baiocchi, Marshall Burke, Mark R. Cullen, and Gary M. Shaw (2020). Oil and gas production and spontaneous preterm birth in the San Joaquin Valley, CA: A case-control study. Environmental Epidemiology.

Eoin McGuirk and Marshall Burke.  2020. The economic origins of conflict in Africa.  accepted, Journal of Political Economy. [previously NBER Working Paper w23056]. [earlier blog post]

Kumar Ayush, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Stefano Ermon. 2020. "Generating interpretable poverty maps using object detection in satellite images", IJCAI-20. To appear in Proc. 29th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence.   

David Lobell,  StefaniaDi Tommaso, Calum You, Ismael Yacoubou Djima, Marshall Burke, and Talip Kilic. 2020. Sight for Sorghums: Comparisons of Satellite- and Ground-Based Sorghum Yield Estimates in Mali. Remote Sensing 12(1), 100. 

Frances Davenport, Julio Herrera-Estrada, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh. 2020. Flood size increases nonlinearly across the western United States in response to lower snow-precipitation ratios. Water Resources Research, 10.1029/2019WR025571

Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Ties Boerma, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid. 2019. "Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood", Lancet Global Health 7(12), 2019.

Ceren Baysan, Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2019. "Economic and non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico". Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, 434-452.

David Lobell, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Sydney Gourlay, Zhenong Jin, Talip Kilic, Siobhan Murray. 2019. "Eyes in the sky, boots on the ground: assessing satellite- and ground-based approaches to crop yield measurement and analysis". American Journal of Agricultural Economics, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aaz051

Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke. 2019. "Global warming has increased global economic inequality", PNAS, [some coverage: NYTimes, Science, Boston Globe, MIT Tech Review] [PNAS podcast] [NPR/Living on Earth]

Katherine Mach, Caroline Kraan, et al. 2019. "Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict", Nature. (14 author team)

Marshall Burke, Lauren Bergquist, and Ted Miguel. 2019. "Sell low and buy high: arbitrage and local price effects in Kenyan markets". Quarterly Journal of Economics. [Coverage: NYTimes] [older version] [replication data]

Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Matthew Tan, Burak Uzkent, Neal Jean, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon. “Predicting Economic Development using Geolocated Wikipedia Articles” [PDF]. KDD-19. To appear in Proc. 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2019.

Rose Rustowicz, Robin Cheong, Lijing Wang, Stefano Ermon, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2019. "Semantic segmentation of crop type in Africa: A novel dataset and analysis of deep learning methods", CVPR '19.

Burak Uzkent, Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon. "Learning to Interpret Satellite Images using Wikipedia" [PDF]. IJCAI-19. To appear in Proc. 28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2019.

Wenjie Hu, Jay Harshadbhai Patel, Zoe-Alanah Robert, Paul Novosad, Samuel Asher, Zhongyi Tang, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2019. “Mapping Missing Population in Rural India: A Deep Learning Approach with Satellite Imagery”. To appear in Proc. 1st AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (AIES 2019). [PDF]

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Calum You, Stefania Di Tommaso, Stephen Aston, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2019. "Smallholder maize area and yield mapping at national scales with Google Earth Engine.", Remote Sensing of Environment, 228, 115-128.

Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid. 2018. "Armed conflict and child mortality". Lancet 392, 857-865.

Jon Proctor, Sol Hsiang, Jen Burney, Marshall Burke, and Wolfram Schlenker. 2018. "Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions". Nature 560480483

Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu, and Sol Hsiang, 2018. "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico", Nature Climate Change 8723729.

Sam Heft Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, and Marshall Burke. 2018. "Robust relationship between air quality and infant mortality in Africa", Nature 559, 254–258

Marshall Burke, Matt Davis, Noah Diffenbaugh. 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets", Nature, 557549553 

Chris Weyant, Margaret L Brandeau, Marshall Burke, David B Lobell, Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu. 2018. "Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study". PLOS Medicine

Barak Oshri, Annie Hu, Peter Adelson, Xiao Chen, Pascaline Dupas, Jeremy Weinstein, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2018. "Infrastructure Quality Assessment in Africa using Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning". KDD-18. To appear in Proc. 24th ACM SIGKDD Conference, 2018. [Arxiv]

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Step Aston, David Lobell. 2017. Mapping and explaining smallholder yield heterogeneity in Eastern Africa. Remote Sensing, 9(9).

Marshall Burke* and David Lobell*. 2017. "Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems". PNAS. [blog post] [earlier blog post] (*denotes equal authorship)

Sam Heft-Neal, David Lobell, and Marshall Burke. 2017. "Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions". Environmental Research Letters, 12(1) 014013.

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid. 2016. "Understanding variation in child mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa". Lancet Global Health, Oct 2016.

Neal Jean*, Marshall Burke*, Michael Xie, Matt Davis, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2016. "Combining machine learning and satellite imagery to predict poverty". Science, 353(6301), 790-794. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda, and lots of others. 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics". Science.

Marshall Burke and Kyle Emerick. 2016. "Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture". American Economic Journal -Economic Policy, 8(3), 106-140.

Tamma Carleton, Sol Hsiang, and Marshall Burke. 2016 "Conflict in a changing climate". European Physical Journal. [blog post by Tamma]

Marshall Burke*, Sol Hsiang*, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production." Nature. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Ted Miguel, and Shanker Satyanath. 2015. "Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts". Review of Economics and Statistics.

Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Climate and conflict", Annual Review of Economics.

Marshall Burke, Erick Gong, and Kelly Jones. 2015. "Income shocks and HIV in Africa". Economic Journal

Sol Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Ted Miguel. 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: Reply to Buhaug et al". Climatic Change.

Sol Hsiang*, Marshall Burke*, and Ted Miguel. 2013. "Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict". Science. (*denotes equal authorship)

Sol Hsiang and Marshall Burke. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the literature say?" Climatic Change, 2013.

[book] Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World. 2010. David Lobell and Marshall Burke, eds. Springer.

Jen Burney, Lennart Woltering, Marshall Burke, Roz Naylor, Dov Pasternak. 2010. "Solar powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano-Sahel". PNAS.

Tom Hertel, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2010. "The poverty implications of climate-induced yield changes by 2030". Global Environmental Change.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2010. "On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.

Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell. 2009. "Warming increases risk of civil war in Africa". PNAS.

Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Luigi Guarino. 2009. "Shifts in African crop climates to 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation". Global Environmental Change 17, 317-325.

David Lobell and Marshall Burke. 2008. "Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation". Environmental Research Letters, September 2008.

David Lobell, Marshall Burke et al. 2008. "Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030". Science 319, 607-610.

Marshall Burke, Kirsten Oleson, Ellen McCullough, and Joanne Gaskell. 2008. "A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade". Environmental Modeling and Assessment, June 2008.

Roz Naylor, David Battisti, Dan Vimont, Walter Falcon, and Marshall Burke. 2007. "Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture". PNAS.

Jim Galloway, Marshall Burke et al. 2007. "International trade in meat - the tip of the pork chop". Ambio, 36(8).

Roz Naylor, Adam Liska, Marshall Burke, and others. 2007. "The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environmen"t. Environment 49, 30-43.

Other writing: comments, op-eds, papers in permanent hibernation

"The climate benefits of the Green New Deal", op-ed with Noah Diffenbaugh in Scientific American, Mar 14 2019.

"Paris agreement could save trillions in avoided climate damages", op-ed with Noah Diffenbaugh in The Hill, May 27 2018

"Climate and conflict: no stigma" (correspondence to Nature, on their editorial and Adams et al Nature Climate Change 2018). March 2018, Nature. [accompanying blog post]

"Analysis of statistical power reconciles climate-conflict results in Africa" [Dec 2015]. (with Sol Hsiang, Kyle Meng, Mark Cane, Ted Miguel).

"Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict", LA Times op-ed, Dec 17 2015 (with Sol Hsiang)

"Costs and benefits of climate change", Wall Street Journal response to Bjorn Lombord op-ed, Nov 22nd 2015 (with Sol Hsiang) [blog post]

"Temperature and violence" [Comment on Raleigh et al], Nature Climate Change, April 2014 (with Mark Cane, Ted Miguel, Sol Hsiang, David Lobell, Kyle Meng, and Shanker Satyanath)

"Weather and violence", New York Times op-ed, August 30th, 2013 (with Sol Hsiang and Ted Miguel).

"Climate robustly linked to African civil war" [Comment on Buhaug 2010], PNAS, 2010. (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell).

"Climate and civil war: is the relationship robust?" NBER working paper w16440 (with Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, and David Lobell). [Economist coverage]

Sundry current projects (in no particular order)

lots of stuff on wildfires and air pollution

lots of stuff using satellites to measure other stuff

stuff on climate impacts