Robert E. Hall - All Publications
Books:
Economics: Principles and Applications (with Marc Lieberman)
South-Western, 1997; sixth edition, 2012.
Forward-Looking
Decision Making, the Gorman Lectures, Princeton University Press, 2010. (Full text download by arrangement with publisher.)
Digital Dealing: How eMarkets
are Transforming the Economy. Norton,
2002.
Booms and Recessions in a Noisy Economy, Arthur Okun
Memorial Lectures, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, 1991.
The
Rational Consumer: Theory and Evidence, Chapter 1, A Theory of Inheritance, MIT Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, 1990.
Macroeconomics, Sixth Edition (with David Papell), W.W.
Norton, 2005 (previous editions with John Taylor). Second
edition, 1988. Third edition, 1991. Fourth edition, 1993. Fifth edition, 1997.
The Flat Tax (complete text can be downloaded)
(with Alvin Rabushka), Hoover Press, 1985. Second edition, 1995.
Low Tax,
Simple Tax, Flat Tax (with
Alvin Rabushka), McGraw-Hill, 1983.
Inflation:
Causes and Effects,
University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1982
(editor).
Articles and Papers:
2020
Measuring
Quantitative Progress in Controlling the Coronavirus, May 18,
2020.
Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from
Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? (with
Marianna Kudlyak), May 15, 2020.
2019
Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of
Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics (with
Marianna Kudlyak), February 16, 2019.
2018
Using
Empirical Marginal Cost to Measure Market Power in the US Economy, November 6, 2018.
NBER Working Paper 25251. –
Replication File -
Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior: The Importance
of Non-Wage Job Values (with Andreas
I. Mueller), Journal of Political Economy,
2018, 126(4), 2018.
Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman’s Presidential Address
(with Thomas J. Sargent), Journal
of Economic Perspectives, 2018, 32(1), pp. 121-134.
Measuring Job-Finding
Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogenous
Job-Seekers (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl), American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2018, 10(1), pp. 1-32. Replication files
available on request to authors.
2017
Low Interest Rates: Causes and Consequences, International Journal of Central Banking,
2017, 13(3), Sept., pp. 103-118.
Sources and Mechanisms of Stagnation and Impaired Growth in Advanced
Economies, ECB Forum on Central Banking, June 2017, pp. 253-269.
The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 (with John
Fernald, James Stock, Mark Watson), Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2017.
Achieving Price Stability by Manipulating the Central Bank’s Payment on
Reserves (with Ricardo Reis), May 16, 2017.
The Bad News about
Earnings per Member of the Population since 2000, and Hope for the Future,
May 8, 2017. Forthcoming in Hoover volume.
The
Pervasive Importance of Tightness in Labor-Market Volatility (with Sam Schulhofer-Wohl),
April 11, 2017.
High Discounts and High Unemployment, American Economic Review, 2017, 107(2), pp. 305-330. – Data and Calculations
The Role of the Growth of Risk-Averse Wealth in the Decline of the Safe
Real Interest Rate (replaces
”Understanding the Decline in the Safe Real Interest Rate”), April 8, 2017. – Data and Calculations –
The Anatomy of Stagnation in a Modern Economy,
(Philips Lecture at the London School of Economics April 2016), Economica, 2017,
84(333), January, pp. 1-15. —Data, video, podcast, slides
2016
Macroeconomics
of Persistent Slumps, in John Taylor and
Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of
Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, North
Holland, pp. 2131-2181. — Backup Zip
File —
Why Has the Unemployment Rate Fared Better than GDP Growth? Sept. 27,
2016. .—Data
Changes
in Labor Participation and Household Income (with Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau), FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-02, February
1, 2016.
Macroeconomics
of Persistent Slumps, in John Taylor and
Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of
Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, North
Holland, pp. 2131-2181. — Backup Zip
File —
2015
Search-and-Matching
Analysis of High Unemployment Caused by the Zero Lower Bound, Review
of Economic Dynamics, December 2015.
Maintaining
Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking (with Ricardo Reis), July 16, 2015.
2014
Secular Stagnation, November 18, 2014. —Slides — Data and Calculations—
Monitoring the Financial Condition and Expenditures
of Households, in Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy (eds.), Risk
Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, University of Chicago Press,
2014, pp. 175-182.
High Discounts and High Unemployment, NBER Working
Paper 19871, September 2014. –
Data and Calculations
Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the U.S. Economy from
the Financial Crisis, NBER Macroeconomics Annual,
2014, 29(1), pp. 71-128. – Data
Appendix – Coverage in The Economist
What the Cyclical Response of Advertising Reveals about Markups and other
Macroeconomic Wedges, April 2014 (replaces NBER Working Paper 18370). – Data and Calculations –
2013
The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2013.
Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile
Economic Conditions, German Economic Review 2013.
2012
Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal
Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence (with Susan
Woodward), American Economic Review,
2012, 102(7), December, pp. 3249-3276. – Programs
-
How the Financial Crisis Caused Persistent
Unemployment, in Lee E. Ohanian, John B. Taylor, Ian J. Wright (eds.) Government
Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, Hoover Institution Press, 2012,
pp. 57-83.
Quantifying the Forces Leading to the Collapse of GDP
after the Financial Crisis, February 2012 (replaces “Clashing Theories of Unemployment” May
2011).
Evidence on the Incidence of Wage Posting, Wage Bargaining,
and on-the-Job Search (with Alan B. Krueger), American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2012, 4(4), pp. 56-67. - Data: Programs and
Results / Data: Survey -
2011
The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to
Financial Frictions, The Economic Journal,
2011, 121, May, pp. 351-378.— Data and Programs (Zip
File) —
The
Long Slump (2011 AEA
Presidential Address), American Economic
Review, 2011, 101(2), April, pp. 431-469. – Materials for My AEA Presidential Address –
Reference Guide on Estimation of Economic Damages (with Victoria A. Lazear and Mark
S. Allen), Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Washington: Federal
Judicial Center, 1994. Third Edition 2011.
2010
The Labor Market in the Current Slump, November
2010.
Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(4),
Fall 2010, pp. 3-20.
Fiscal Stimulus, Daedalus, Fall 2010, pp. 83-94.
The Burden of the Nondiversifiable
Risk of Entrepreneurship (with Susan Woodward), American
Economic Review, 2010, 100 (3), June, pp.
1163-1194. - Programs
-
2009
Sticky Prices and Variable Markups,
October 2009.
By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More
Output? Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, 2009, 2, pp. 183-231. – Data and Slides (Zip File) —
Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value
of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor, Journal of Political Economy, April 2009, 117(2), pp. 281-323.
(Replaces “Sources and Mechanisms of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor
Market”). – Data —
2008
Cyclical Movements along the Labor Supply Function, in Katharine
Bradbury, Christopher L. Foote, Robert K. Triest,
(eds.) Labor Supply in the New Century, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
2008, pp. 241-278.
Potential Competition, Limit Pricing, and Price
Elevation from Exclusionary Conduct, in Issues in Competition Law and Policy, Vol. 1,
ABA Publishing Chicago, 2008, pp. 433-448.
The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain (with Paul R. Milgrom), American Economic Review, September
2008, 98(4), pp. 1653-1674 (PDF 278 kb).
– DATA -
Equity Depletion from
Government-Guaranteed Debt, December 2008, published as
Chapter 7 of Forward-Looking Decision Making,
titled “Financial Stability with Government-Guaranteed Debt.”
General Equilibrium with Customer Relationships: A
Dynamic Analysis of Rent-Seeking, February 2008
(PDF 615 kb)
2007
How Much Do We Understand about the Modern Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 2, pp. 13-28. - Data -
Review of Michael D. Whinston’s Lectures on Antitrust Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(4), December 2007, pp. 1066-1070.
The Incentives to Start New Companies: Evidence from
Venture Capital (with Susan Woodward) April 2007 (PDF 400 kb). NBER Working Paper 13056.
The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending (with Charles I. Jones), Quarterly
Journal of Economics, February 2007, 122(1), pp. 39-72. - Data -
2006
Complete Markets as an Approximation to the Bewley Equilibrium with Unemployment Risk, August 22, 2006 (PDF 166 kb).
The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary
General-Equilibrium Analysis, April 9,
2006 (PDF 280 kb).
Editorial on Ben Bernanke
appointment, Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2006.
The Macroeconomy and
Determinants of the Earnings of Less-Skilled Workers, in R. Blank, S. Danziger, and R. Schoeni (eds.), Working and Poor: How Economic and Policy
Changes Are Affecting Low-Wage Workers, Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, pp.
89-112. - Data -
2005
The Amplification of Unemployment Fluctuations through
Self-Selection,
September 28, 2005 (PDF 142 kb). – Data -
Job Loss, Job Finding, and Unemployment in the U.S.
Economy over the Past Fifty Years, NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, pp. 101-137.
- Data - (16,000 kb).
Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic
Fluctuations, in The
Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,
pp. 133-179, August 2005. - DATA -
Employment Efficiency and Sticky Wages: Evidence from
Flows in the Labor Market, Review of Economics and
Statistics, August 2005, 87(3), pp. 397-407. - DATA -
Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness, American Economic Review, March
2005, 95(1), pp. 50-65. - Data - Correction by Guido
Lorenzoni.
2004
Guidelines for Tax Reform, Testimony
before House Budget Committee 10/16/04.
The Labor Market is the Key to
Understanding the Business Cycle, unpublished, September 2004.
Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2004,
119(3), pp. 899-927. - Data -
2003
Benchmarking the Returns to Venture (with
Susan E. Woodward), December 2003, NBER WP
10202.
Corporate Earnings Track the Competitive Benchmark, November 14, 2003 (PDF, 272
kb), NBER WP 10150.
Data: Stock Market and Capital
Accumulation. Earnings by Industry.
Earnings - Total Corp.
Understanding the Evolution of U.S. Manufacturing, Testimony
before Senate Finance Committee 2003
Modern Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations: Empirics and
Policy Applications, AER
Papers and Proceedings, May 2003, 93(2), pp. 145-150.
Potential Competition and the Prices of Network Goods:
Desktop Software, April
29, 2003 (PDF, 235 kb).
2002
Response of Prices to Shifts
in Demand, March 2002.
Controlling the Price Level, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 2002, 2(1),
article 5.
2001
Comment on “Productivity
Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?” by Basu, Fernald,
Shapiro, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 55,
2001.
The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation, American Economic Review, December 2001,
91(5), pp. 1185-1202.
Struggling to Understand the Stock Market (the Richard T. Ely Lecture), American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2001, 91(2), pp. 1-11.
2000
The Value of Education: Evidence from around the
Globe, November 2000.
Reorganization, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, June
2000, pp. 1-22.
Toward a Quantification of the Effects of Microsoft’s
Conduct (with Chris E. Hall), American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May, 2000, 90(2), pp. 188-191.
Monetary Policy with Changing
Financial and Labor-Market Fundamentals, May 2000.
Optimal Contracts to Defend Upstream Monopoly, January 2000 (PDF, 238 kb).
e-Capital: The Link between the Labor Market and the Stock
Market in the 1990s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2000, 2, pp. 73-118.
1999
The Concentration of Job
Destruction, NBER Working Paper 7025, 1999.
Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per
Worker than Others? (with
Charles I. Jones), Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1999,
114(1), pp. 83-116, February 1999. - DATA SETS -
Aggregate Job Destruction and
Inventory Liquidation, NBER Working Paper 6912, January 1999.
Labor-Market Frictions and Employment Fluctuations, in John Taylor and Michael Woodford (eds.) Handbook
of Macroeconomics, 1999, North-Holland, pp. 1137-1170.
1998
Comment on “Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment” by
Caballero and Hammour, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public
Policy, Vol. 48, 1998, pp. 95-99.
Job Destruction in General
Equilibrium, May 1998.
1997
The Inkjet Aftermarket: An Economic
Analysis, unpublished, August 1997.
Irving Fisher’s Self-Stabilizing Money, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
May 1997, 87(2), pp. 436-438.
Levels of Economic Activity across Countries, (with Charles I. Jones), American Economic Review
Papers and Proceedings, May 1997, 87(2), pp. 173-177.
Potential Disruption from the Move to a Consumption Tax, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,
May 1997, 87(2), pp. 147-150.
Overview of the U.S. Economy (with Susan E. Woodward), prepared for Korea
Development Institute, 1997.
Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time, Journal of Labor Economics, January 1997, 15 (1),
pp. S223-S250.
The Effects of Tax Reform on
Housing, prepared for AEA/REUA Session on Tax Reform and Real
Estate, Jan. 6, 1997.
1996
Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity (with Antonio Ciccone), American Economic Review,
March 1996, 86(1), pp. 54-70.
The Effects of Tax Reform on Prices and Asset Values, in Tax Policy and the Economy, National Bureau
of Economic Research, James Poterba (ed.), vol. 10, MIT Press, 1996, pp. 71-88.
The Flat Tax: A Simple Progressive
Consumption Tax (with Alvin Rabushka), in Michael J. Boskin (ed.), Frontiers of Tax
Reform, Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1996.
Putting the Flat Tax into Action (with Alvin Rabushka), in Fairness & Efficiency in the Flat Tax,
AEI press, 1996, pp. 3-41.
Robert Lucas, Recipient of the
1995 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 98 (1), 1996, pp. 33-48.
1995
Lost Jobs, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995,
1, pp. 221-256.
The Effects of the Brookings Panel
on Economic Activity on Economic Activity, joke paper prepared for BPEA, 1995.
The Flat Tax in 1995 (with Alvin Rabushka), prepared for AEI Flat
Tax Conference, 1995.
The Flat Tax, Testimony before the House Committee on Ways
and Means, 1995.
International Consequences of the
Leading Consumption Tax Proposals, prepared for CEPR Conference on Fundamental
Tax Reform, Dec. 1, 1995.
1994
Nominal Income Targeting (with N. Gregory Mankiw), in N. Gregory Mankiw (ed.), Monetary Policy,
University of Chicago Press, 1994, pp. 71-93.
Quantifying Specification Error in
Models with Expectations, (with Steven N. Durlauf), unpublished, 1994
1993
The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations (with Bronwyn H. Hall), Brookings Papers on
Economic Activity, 1993, 1, pp. 1-34.
Macro Theory and the Recession of
1990-91, American Economic Review Papers and
Proceedings, Vol. 83(2), May 1993.
Credible Long-Term Wage Offers, unpublished, 1993.
1991
Labor Demand, Labor Supply, and Employment Volatility, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 7(1), 1991, pp.
17-46.
Recession Dating, prepared for Federal Reserve Board,
unpublished, December 1991.
Substitution over Time in Consumption and Work, in L. McKenzie and S. Zamagni
(eds.), Value and Capital Fifty Years Later, MacMillan, 1991, pp.
239-267.
Recessions as Reorganizations, unpublished, February 1991.
1990
Invariance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual, in Peter Diamond (ed.), Growth/
Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow’s Birthday,
1990, MIT Press, pp. 71-112.
Contracts: Determinants,
Properties, and Implications, remarks for the concluding panel, Nobel Symposium, August 1990.
High and Low Unemployment
Equilibria, Self-Selection, and Screening in the Labor Market, unpublished, February 1990.
1989
Consumption, in Robert J. Barro
(ed.,), Modern Business Cycle Theory, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University
Press, 1989, pp. 153-177.
1988
The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S.
Industry, Journal of Political
Economy, October 1988, 96(5), pp. 921-947.
Fluctuations in Equilibrium
Unemployment, American Economic Review, Papers and
Proceedings, Vol. 78, No. 2, May 1988. Pp. 269-275.
Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption, Journal of Political Economy, April 1988,
96(2), pp. 339-357.
An Efficient, Equitable Tax
for the 1990s (with Alvin Rabushka), unpublished, 1988.
Increasing Returns: Theory and
Measurement with Industry Data, unpublished, 1988.
1987
Productivity and the Business
Cycle, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 27,
1987, pp. 421-444.
The Volatility of Employment with
Fixed Costs of Going to Work, unpublished, June 1987.
1986
Cyclical Fluctuations in the Labor
Market (with David Lilien), in O. Ashenfelder
and R. Layard (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Amsterdam: North
Holland, 1986, pp. 1001-1035.
Market Structure and Macroeconomic
Fluctuations, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Vol. 2, 1986, pp. 285-322.
Monetary Policy under Financial
Innovation and Deregulation, in Y. Suzuki and H. Yomo (eds.), Financial
Innovation and Monetary Policy: Asia and the West, University of Tokyo
Press, 1986.
Near-Indeterminacy of Output under
Constant Marginal Cost, unpublished, July 1986.
Optimal Monetary Institutions and
Policy, in Colin Campbell, William Dougan (eds.), Alternative
Monetary Regimes, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986, pp.
224-239.
The Role of Consumption in
Economic Fluctuations, in Robert J. Gordon (ed.,) The American
Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press, 1986,
pp. 237-55 and 265-66.
Unit Elasticity Hypothesis and the
Indeterminacy of Output, unpublished, March 1986.
1985
Real Interest and Consumption, NBER Working Paper 1694, August 1985.
1984
The Federal Deficit in the Longer
Run, unpublished, 1984.
A Free Market Policy To Stabilize
the Purchasing Power of the Dollar, in Barry N. Siegel (ed.), Money in Crisis: The Federal Reserve, the
Economy, and Monetary Reform, Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing, 1984,
pp. 303-321.
Persistent Employment Fluctuations
and Cautious Wage Adjustment, unpublished, June 1984.
The Inefficiency of Marginal-Cost
Pricing and the Apparent Rigidity of Prices, NBER Working Paper 1347, May 1984.
Monetary Strategy with an Elastic
Price Standard, Price Stability and Public Policy: A Symposium
Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984.
The Excess Sensitivity of Layoffs and Quits to Demand (with Edward Lazear), Journal
of Labor Economics, 1984, 2(2), pp. 233-257.
1983
Optimal Fiduciary Monetary Systems, Journal of Monetary Economics, July
1983, 12(1), pp. 33-50.
Is Unemployment a Macroeconomic
Problem? AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 73, No. 2, May 1983, pp. 219-222.
Macroeconomic Policy under
Structural Change, Industrial Change and Public Policy, A
Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1983, pp.
85-111.
1982
Monetary Trends in the United
States and the United Kingdom: Review from the Perspective of New Development
in Monetary Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.
XX, December 1982, pp. 1552-1556.
The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, American Economic Review, September 1982,
72(4), pp. 716-724.
The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income:
Estimates from Panel Data on Households (with Frederic Mishkin), Econometrica,
March 1982, 50(2), pp. 461-481.
Explorations in the Gold Standard
and Related Policies for Stabilizing the Dollar, in Robert E.Hall (ed.), Inflation: Causes
and Effects, University of Chicago Press, 1982, pp. 111-22.
Macroeconomic Policy for a
Substantial Transfer of Resources during a Defense Emergency, unpublished,1982.
The Minimum Wage and Job Turnover
in Markets for Young Workers, in Richard B. Freeman and David A. Wise
(eds.) The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences,
University of Chicago Press, 1982, pp. 475-97.
1981
The Government and the Monetary
Unit, unpublished, December 1981.
A Proposal to Simplify our Tax
System (with Alvin Rabushka), Wall Street
Journal, December 10, 1981.
Comment on Davidson & Hendry’s
“Interpreting Economic Evidence,” European Economic Review, Vol.
16, 1981, pp. 193-194.
The Role of the Government in
Stabilizing Prices and Regulating Money, unpublished, January 1981.
Tax Treatment of Depreciation,
Capital Gains, and Interest in an Inflationary Economy, in Charles R. Hulten (ed.), Depreciation,
Inflation, and the Taxation of Income from Capital, Washington, DC: Urban
Institute Press, 1981, pp. 149-166.
1980
Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations, in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on
Public Policy, 1980, 12, pp. 7-33.
Employment Fluctuations and Wage
Rigidity, in George L. Perry (ed.), Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity 1, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC,
1980, pp. 91-123.
Stabilization Policy and Capital
Formation, American Economic Review, Vol. 70,
No. 2, May 1980, pp.157-63.
1979
Efficient Wage Bargains under Uncertain Supply and Demand (with David Lilien), American
Economic Review, December 1979, 69(5), pp. 868-879.
The Role of Prevailing Prices and
Wages in the Efficient Organization of Markets, NBER Working Paper 0386, August 1979.
A Theory of the Natural Unemployment Rate and the Duration
of Employment, Journal of Monetary
Economics, April 1979, 5(2), pp. 1-17.
Intertemporal Substitution and
Aggregate Fluctuations, unpublished, 1979.
The Measurement and Significance
of Labor Turnover (with David Lilien),
Concepts and Data Needs, National Commission on Employment and Unemployment
Statistics, 1979, pp. 577-600.
1978
Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income
Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Political Economy,
December 1978, 86(6), pp. 971-987.
Controlling Inflation, unpublished, November 1978.
Distribution of Permanent Income (with Dennis W. Carlton), in Zvi Griliches, Wilhelm Krelle, Hans-Jurgen Krupp, Oldrich Kyn (eds.), Income Distribution and Economic Inequality,
New York: Halsted Press, 1978.
The Macroeconomic Impact of
Changes in Income Taxes in the Short and Medium Runs, Journal of Political Economy,
Vol. 386, No. 2, 1978, pp. S71-S85.
The Nature and Measurement of
Unemployment, NBER Working Paper 0252, July 1978.
Some Evidence on the Sources of
Economic Fluctuations, unpublished, June 1978.
The Unemployment Explosion of the
1970s, unpublished, February 1978.
1977
An Aspect of the Economic Role of Unemployment, from Microeconomic
Foundations of Macroeconomics, 1977.
The Conflicting Goals of National
Energy Policy (with Robert S. Pindyck,
The Public Interest, No. 47, 1977.
The Effectiveness of Training
Programs in Raising Earnings, in Seymour L. Wolfbein
(ed.), Men in thePre-Retirement Years,
Philadelphia: Temple University, 1977, pp. 217-237.
Investment, Interest Rates, and
the Effects of Stabilization Policies, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1977, pp. 61-121.
1976
Notes on the Current State of
Empirical Macroeconomics, unpublished, June 1976.
Occupational Mobility and the
Distribution of Occupational Success among Young Men (with Richard Kasten), American Economic
Review Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 66, May 1976, pp. 309-315.
An Economic Appraisal of the Full
Employment and Balanced Growth Act, Testimony before House Subcommittee, April 1976.
An Approximate Divisia
Index of Total Factor Productivity (with Spencer Star), Econometrica,
Vol. 44, No. 2, March 1976, pp. 257-263.
The Phillips Curve in
Macroeconomics Policy, in K. Brunner, A. Meltzer (eds.), The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets,
Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1976.
1975
The Taxation of Earnings under
Public Assistance (with N. A. Barr), Economica,
November 1975.
The Effects of the Experimental
Negative Income Tax on Labor Supply, in Pechman and Timpane
(eds.), Work Incentives and Income Guarantees: The New Jersey Negative
Income Tax Experiments, The Brookings Institution, 1975.
The Rigidity of Wages and the
Persistence of Unemployment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Vol. 2, 1975, pp. 301-349.
1974
Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models (with E.
Berndt, B. Hall, and J. Hausman), Annals of
Economic and Social Measurement, 3/4, 1974, pp. 653-665.
The Process of Inflation in the
Labor Market, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Vol. 2, 1974, pp. 343-409.
The Distribution of Unobserved
Variables, unpublished, January 1974.
1973
On the Statistical Theory of
Unobserved Components, unpublished, August 1973.
The Specification of Technology with Several Kinds of
Output, Journal of Political Economy, July-August 1973, 81(4), pp.
878-892.
Wages, Income, and Hours of Work in the U.S. Labor Force, in H. Watts and G. Cain, Income Maintenance and
Labor Supply: Econometric Studies, Rand McNally, 1973, pp. 102-162.
The Relative Occupational Success
of Blacks and Whites (with Richard Kasten),
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1973, pp. 781-797.
A Contribution to the Econometric
Theory of Unobserved Components, unpublished, January 1973.
1972
Turnover in the Labor Force, Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 1972, 3, pp. 709-756.
Book Review of Microeconomic
Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, ed. Phelps, Journal of Economic
Literature, March 1972.
The Variation in Hours of Work
among Individuals, unpublished, January 1972.
1971
The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Economy with
Foresight, Review of Economic Studies, April 1971,
38(114), pp. 229-244.
The Measurement of Quality Change from Vintage Price Data, in Zvi Griliches
(ed.), Price Indexes and Quality Change, Harvard University Press, 1971,
pp. 240-271.
Application of the Theory of
Optimum Capital Accumulation (with Dale W. Jorgenson), in G. Fromm (ed.),
The Effect of Tax Incentives on Investment, Washington, DC: The
Brookings Institution, 1971, pp. 9-60.
The Market for Professional and
Technical Workers, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Vol. 1, 1971, pp. 213-218.
Prospects for Shifting the
Phillips Curve Through Manpower Policy, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 3, 1971, pp. 659-701.
1970
Why Is the Unemployment Rate So High at Full Employment? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1970,
3, pp. 369-410.
The Calculation of Ordinary Least
Squares Estimates, unpublished, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley, March 1970.
Unionism and the Inflationary Bias
of Labor Markets, unpublished, January 1970.
1960s
Tax Policy and Investment Behavior (with Dale W. Jorgenson), American Economic Review,
June 1967, 57(3), pp. 391-414. Reply and Further Results, American Economic Review, June 1969, 59(3), pp.
388-401.
Simulation Methods for
Intertemporal Economic Models, UC Berkeley Working Paper, October 1968.
Transform Methods for the Study of
Distributed Lags, UC Berkeley Working Paper in Economic
Theory and Econometrics, #132, June 1968.
Consumption Taxes versus Income Taxes: Implications for
Economic Growth, in Proceedings of the 61st
Annual Conference on Taxation, National Tax Association, 1968, pp. 125-145.
A Flexible Infinite Distributed
Lag (with Richard C. Sutch),
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Economic Research, UC Berkeley Working Paper No. 124, February 1968.
Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the
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Polynomial Distributed Lags, MIT Working Paper, July 1967.
Essays on the Theory of Wealth, MIT Ph.D. Thesis, June 1967.
The Burden of Slavery, unpublished, January 1966.
The Population of England in the
14th and 15th Centuries, unpublished, 1965.
Investment in Equipment and
Structures, 1929-1961, Berkeley, Bachelor’s Thesis, May, 1964.