This paper studies firm-level investment in the wake of the Mexican peso crisis of 1994. While exporters outperform nonexporters in terms of profits and sales after the devaluation, their investment is constrained by weak balance sheets. Specifically, we find that firms with heavy exposure to short-term foreign currency debt before the devaluation experienced relatively low levels of post-devaluation investment. The data also imply that increased sales uncertainty after the peg{\textquoteright}s collapse deterred investment, particularly in the tradable sector. The results confirm the recent theoretical literature{\textquoteright}s focus on weak balance sheets as driving the recessionary impact of devaluations in emerging markets.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/mexico_jde.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @INBOOK{12923, title = {Sovereign Debt}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {In Progress}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel}, abstract = {In this chapter, we use a benchmark limited-commitment model to explore key issues in the economics of sovereign debt. After highlighting conceptual issues that distinguish sovereign debt as well as reviewing a number of empirical facts, we use the model to discuss debt overhang, risk sharing, and capital flows in an environment of limited enforcement. We also discuss recent progress on default and renegotiation; self-fulfilling debt crises; and incomplete markets and their quantitative implications. We conclude with a brief assessment of the current state of the literature and highlight some directions for future research.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/handbook_for_NBER.pdf}, booktitle = {Handbook of International Economics Vol 4}, organization = {Elsevier}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12927, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel}, title = {Take the Short Route: How to repay and restructure sovereign debt with multiple maturities}, year = {2013}, abstract = {We address the question of whether and how a sovereign should reduce its external indebtedness when default is a significant possibility, with a particular focus on whether a sovereign should buy back or dilute existing long-term sovereign bonds. Our main finding is that when reduction of debt is optimal, the sovereign should remain passive in the long-term bond market during the deleveraging process, retiring long-term bonds as they mature but never actively issuing or buying back these bonds. The only active margin is the short-term bond market, which involves partial roll over of such debt. Any active maturity management, as will typically be required to address rollover crisis risk, will be delayed until the end of the deleveraging process. We also show that there exist a set of Pareto improving debt restructurings in which maturities are shortened; however, these cannot be implemented by trading in competitive secondary markets.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/maturities_draft_v6.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12925, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel}, title = {Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies}, year = {2012}, abstract = {We study optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy (SOE) with sovereign and private default risk and limited commitment to tax plans. The SOE{\textquoteright}s government uses linear taxation to fund exogenous expenditures and uses public debt to inter-temporally allocate tax distortions. We characterize a class of environments in which the tax on \emph{labor} goes to zero in the long run, while the tax on capital income may be non-zero, reversing the standard prediction of the Ramsey tax literature. The zero labor tax is an optimal long run outcome if the economy is subject to sovereign debt constraints and the private agents are impatient relative to the international interest rate. The front loading of tax distortions allows the economy to build a large (aggregate) debt position in the presence of limited commitment. We show that a similar result holds in a closed economy with imperfect inter-generational altruism.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/fiscal.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12912, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel}, title = {Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2011}, volume = {126}, pages = {651-697}, abstract = {We propose a tractable variant of the open economy neoclassical growth model that emphasizes political economy and contracting frictions. The political economy frictions involve a preference for immediate spending, while the contracting friction is a lack of commitment regarding foreign debt and expropriation. We show that the political economy frictions slow an economy{\textquoteright}s convergence to the steady state due to the endogenous evolution of capital taxation. The model rationalizes why openness has different implications for growth depending on the political environment, why institutions such as the treatment of capital income evolve over time, why governments in countries that grow rapidly accumulate net foreign assets rather than liabilities, and why foreign aid may not affect growth.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/The Quarterly Journal of Economics-2011-Aguiar-651-97.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/online_appendix.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12924, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel and Emmanuel Farhi and Gopinath, Gita}, title = {Crisis and Commitment: Inflation Credibility and the Vulnerability to Sovereign Debt Crises}, year = {2013}, abstract = {We propose a continuous time model of nominal debt and investigate the role of inflation credibility in the potential for self-fulfilling debt crises. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding debt without the full punishment of default. With high inflation credibility, which can be interpreted as joining a monetary union or issuing foreign currency debt, debt is effectively real. By contrast, with low inflation credibility, sovereign debt is nominal and in a debt crisis a government may opt to inflate away a fraction of the debt burden rather than explicitly default. This flexibility potentially reduces the country{\textquoteright}s exposure to self-fulfilling crises. On the other hand, the government lacks credibility not to inflate in the absence of crisis. This latter channel raises the cost of debt in tranquil periods and makes default more attractive in the event of a crisis, increasing the country{\textquoteright}s vulnerability. We characterize the interaction of these two forces. We show that there is an intermediate inflation credibility that minimizes the country{\textquoteright}s exposure to rollover risk. Low inflation credibility brings the worst of both worlds---high inflation in tranquil periods and increased vulnerability to a crisis.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/draft_submit.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @PROCEEDINGS{12905, title = {Expropriation Dynamics}, year = {2009}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/aer\%2E99\%2E2\%2E473.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/exp_dynamics_appendix.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/shocks.py_.zip}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel and Gopinath, Gita}, journal = {American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings}, owner = {Bobhall}, pages = {473-479}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12914, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Amador, Manuel and Gopinath, Gita}, title = {Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {2009}, volume = {176}, pages = {1-31}, abstract = {We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy generates long-run cycles in both sovereign debt and foreign direct investment in an environment in which the first best capital stock is a constant. The expected tax on capital endogenously varies with the state of the economy and investment is distorted by more in recessions than in booms, amplifying the effect of shocks. The government{\textquoteright}s lack of commitment induces a negative correlation between investment and the stock of government debt, a {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}debt overhang{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} effect. Debt relief is never Pareto improving and cannot affect the long-run level of investment. Furthermore, restricting the government to a balanced budget can eliminate the cyclical distortion of investment.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/overhang_r.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{Aguiar:Bils, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Bils, Mark}, title = {Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality?}, year = {2013}, abstract = {We revisit to what extent the increase in income inequality over the last 30 years has been mirrored by consumption inequality. We do so by constructing an alternative measure of consumption expenditure, using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE), that employs a demand system to correct for systematic measurement error. Specifically, we consider trends in the relative expenditure of high-income and low-income households for different goods with different expenditure elasticities. Our estimation exploits the difference in the growth rate of luxury consumption inequality versus necessity consumption inequality. This {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}double-differencing,{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} which we implement in a regression framework, corrects for mis-measurement that can systematically vary over time by good and income group. Our results show that consumption inequality has tracked income inequality much more closely than estimated by direct responses on expenditures.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/mirror.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09}, url = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/vhpqzl0yidoinj0/mirror_data.zip} } @UNPUBLISHED{AguiarBils2009, author = {Mark Aguiar and Mark Bils}, title = {Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality?}, note = {University of Rochester mimeo}, month = {December}, year = {2009}, organization = {University of Rochester}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{12916, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Broner, Fernando}, title = {Determining Underlying Macroeconomic Fundamentals during Emerging Market Crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2006}, volume = {53}, pages = {699-724}, abstract = {Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}effective{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/fund_jme.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12911, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Gopinath, Gita}, title = {Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2007}, volume = {115}, pages = {69-102}, abstract = {Emerging market business cycles exhibit strongly counter-cyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}sudden stops{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} in capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies. Nevertheless, we show that a standard model characterizes both types of markets. Motivated by the frequent policy regime switches observed in emerging markets, our premise is that these economies are subject to substantial volatility in trend growth. Our methodology exploits the information in consumption and net exports to identify the persistence of productivity. We find that shocks to trend growth--- rather than transitory fluctuations around a stable trend ---are the primary source of fluctuations in emerging markets. The key features of emerging market business cycles are then shown to be consistent with this underlying income process in an otherwise standard equilibrium model.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/511283.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09}, url = {http://www.markaguiar.com/papers/cycle_is_trend/datapage.html} } @ARTICLE{12915, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Gopinath, Gita}, title = {Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates, and the Current Account}, journal = {Journal of International Economics}, year = {2006}, volume = {69}, pages = {64-83}, abstract = {World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of occasions. In this paper we develop a quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to match four empirical regularities regarding emerging markets: defaults occur in equilibrium, interest rates are countercyclical, net exports are countercyclical, and interest rates and the current account are positively correlated. We highlight the role of the stochastic trend in emerging markets, in an otherwise standard model with endogenous default, to match these facts
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/dd_jie.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/cascode.zip}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @PROCEEDINGS{12922, title = {Emerging Market Fluctuations: The Role of Interest Rate and Productivity Shocks}, year = {2006}, abstract = {In this paper we use a quantitative model to explore the potential frictions that distinguish emerging market business cycles from developed small open economies. Following Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) we allow total factor productivity (TFP) to have a stationary and an integrated component. We also allow for shocks to the consumption and investment Euler Equations that operate through the interest rate. These {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}wedges{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} represent changes in the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation, which may be due to changes in observed interest rates, unobserved borrowing constraints, or other financial frictions. We estimate the model using data from Mexico and Canada. We show that interest rate shocks orthogonal to domestic TFP fail to explain the behavior of emerging markets. We then allow for interest rates to respond to/co-vary with productivity shocks. We find that emerging market business cycles appear to be driven by large shocks to trend income combined with relatively small transitory shocks that co-vary with the interest rate.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/cit_chile_5.pdf}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Gopinath, Gita}, journal = {Tenth Annual Conference on the Central Bank of Chile: Current Account and External Financing}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12918, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Gopinath, Gita}, title = {Fire-Sale FDI and Liquidity Crises}, journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics}, year = {2005}, volume = {87}, pages = {439-452}, abstract = {In placing capital market imperfections at the center of emerging market crises, the theoretical literature has associated a liquidity crisis with low foreign investment and the exit of investors from the crisis economy. However, a liquidity crisis is equally consistent with an inflow of foreign capital in the form of mergers and acquisitions (M\&A). To support this hypothesis, we use a firm-level data set to show that foreign acquisitions increased by 91\% in East Asia between 1996 and 1998, while intranational merger activity declined. Firm liquidity plays a significant and sizable role in explaining both the increase in foreign acquisitions and the decline in the price of acquisitions during the crisis. This contrasts with the role of liquidity in noncrisis years and in noncrisis economies in the region. This effect is also most prominent in the tradable sector. Quantitatively, the observed decline in liquidity can explain 25\% of the increase in foreign acquisition activity in the tradable sectors. The nature of M\&A activity supports liquidity-based explanations of the East Asian crisis and provides an explanation for the puzzling stability of FDI inflows during the crises.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/fdi_restat.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12909, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik}, title = {Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2013}, volume = {121}, pages = {437-492}, abstract = {In this paper we revisit two well-known facts regarding lifecycle expenditures. The first is the familiar {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}hump{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} shaped lifecycle profile of nondurable expenditures. The second is that cross-household consumption inequality increases steadily throughout the lifecycle. We document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the lifecycle profile of individual consumption sub-components. We provide evidence that the categories driving lifecycle consumption are either inputs into market work (clothing and transportation) or are amenable to home production (food). Using a quantitative model, we document that the disaggregated lifecycle consumption profiles imply a level of uninsurable permanent income risk that is similar to that implied by wage data and substantially lower than that implied by a model using only a composite consumption good.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/670740.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/aguiar_hurst_robustness_appendix_final.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09}, url = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/loynhyhfd9vvwqt/deconstructing.zip} } @BOOK{12920, title = {The Increase in Leisure Inequality: 1965-2005}, publisher = {American Enterprise Institute}, year = {2009}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik}, address = {Washington, DC}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/aei_leisure_draft_september2007_v1.pdf}, organization = {American Enterprise Institute}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09}, url = {http://www.aei.org/book/society-and-culture/citizenship/the-increase-in-leisure-inequality-1965-2005-book/} } @INBOOK{12921, title = {Permanent Income Hypothesis}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, year = {2008}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik}, booktitle = {New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09}, url = {http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_P000066\&edition=current\&q=permanent\%20income\&topicid=\&result_number=1} } @ARTICLE{Aguiar:lifecycle, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Erik Hurst}, title = {Life-Cycle Prices and Production}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {2007}, pages = {1533-1559}, month = {December}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{AguiarHurst2007, author = {Mark Aguiar and Erik Hurst}, title = {Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time over Five Decades}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2007}, volume = {122}, pages = {969-1006}, number = {3}, month = {08}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Aguiar:Hurst, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik}, title = {Consumption versus Expenditure}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2005}, volume = {113}, pages = {919-948}, abstract = {Previous authors have documented a dramatic decline in food expenditures at the time of retirement. We show that this is matched by an equally dramatic rise in time spent shopping for and preparing meals. Using a novel data set that collects detailed food diaries for a large cross-section of U.S. households, we show that neither the quality nor the quantity of food intake deteriorates with retirement status. We also show that unemployed households experience a decline in food expenditure and food consumption commensurate with the impact of job displacement on permanent income. These results highlight how direct measures of consumption distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated shocks to income while measures of expenditures obscure the distinction.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/491590.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @PROCEEDINGS{12907, title = {The Life-Cycle Profile of Time Spent on Job Search}, year = {2013}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/aer\%2E103\%2E3\%2E111.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/jobsearch_profile.pdf}, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik and Karabarbounis, Loukas}, journal = {American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings}, owner = {Bobhall}, pages = {111-116}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{Aguiar:GRtimeuse, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik and Karabarbounis, Loukas}, title = {Time Use during the Great Recession}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2013}, volume = {103}, pages = {1664-96}, abstract = {Using data from the American Time Use Survey between 2003 and 2010, we document that home production absorbs roughly 30 percent of foregone market work hours at business cycle frequencies. Leisure absorbs roughly 50 percent of foregone market work hours, with sleeping and television watching accounting for most of this increase. We document significant increases in time spent on shopping, child care, education, and health. Job search absorbs between 2 and 6 percent of foregone market work hours. We discuss the implications of our results for business cycle models with home production and non-separable preferences.
}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/TUGR.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/time_appendix.pdf , http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/time_data.zip}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @ARTICLE{12928, author = {Aguiar, Mark and Hurst, Erik and Karabarbounis, Loukas}, title = {Recent Developments in the Economics of Time Use}, journal = {Annual Review of Economics}, year = {2012}, volume = {4}, pages = {373-397}, attachments = {http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/maguiar/files/annurev-economics-111809-125129.pdf}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @UNPUBLISHED{Ahn:Hamilton, author = {Hie Joo Ahn and James D. Hamilton}, title = {Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics}, note = {Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego}, month = {August}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.08.16} } @BOOK{AitchisonBrown1957, title = {{The Lognormal Distribution with Special Reference to its Uses in Economics}}, publisher = {Cambridge University, London}, year = {1957}, author = {Aitchison, J. and Brown, J.A.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{AitShaliaParkerYogo2004, author = {Yacine Ait-Sahalia and Jonathan A. Parker and Motohiro Yogo}, title = {Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {2004}, volume = {59}, pages = {2959-3004}, number = {6}, month = {December}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.07.17} } @ARTICLE{Akerlof:Lemons, author = {Akerlof, George A.}, title = {The Market for ``Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1970}, volume = {84}, pages = {pp. 488-500}, number = {3}, abstract = {I. Introduction, 488.--II. The model with automobiles as an example, 489.--III. Examples and applications, 492.--IV. Counteracting institutions, 499.--V. Conclusion, 500.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1970 Oxford University Press}, issn = {00335533}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Aug., 1970}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1879431} } @ARTICLE{Akerlof:norm, author = {Akerlof, George A. and Dickens, William T. and Perry, George L.}, title = {The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation}, journal = bpea, year = {1996}, pages = {1-59}, number = {1} } @ARTICLE{Akerlof:Main, author = {Akerlof, George A. and Main, Brian G. M.}, title = {An Experience-Weighted Measure of Employment and Unemployment Durations}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1981}, volume = {71}, pages = {pp. 1003-1011}, number = {5}, copyright = {Copyright � 1981 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Dec., 1981}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2015.06.04}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1803481} } @UNPUBLISHED{AlcalaCiccone2002, author = {Francisco Alcala and Antonio Ciccone}, title = {Trade and Productivity}, note = {Universitat Pompeu Fabra mimeo}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Alexopoulos:efficiency, author = {Alexopoulos, Michelle}, title = {Unemployment and the Business Cycle}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2004}, volume = {51}, pages = {277-298}, number = {2}, month = {March}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.09.10} } @UNPUBLISHED{Alvarez:Boro, author = {Fernando Alvarez and Katar\'{\i}na Borovi\v{c}kov\'{a} and Robert Shimer}, title = {Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model}, note = {University of Chicago}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.06.05} } @ARTICLE{Alvarez:Jermann, author = {Alvarez, Fernando and Jermann, Urban J.}, title = {Efficiency, Equilibrium, and Asset Pricing with Risk of Default}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {2000}, volume = {68}, pages = {pp. 775-797}, number = {4}, abstract = {We introduce a new equilibrium concept and study its efficiency and asset pricing implications for the environment analyzed by Kehoe and Levine (1993) and Kocherlakota (1996). Our equilibrium concept has complete markets and endogenous solvency constraints. These solvency constraints prevent default at the cost of reducing risk sharing. We show versions of the welfare theorems. We characterize the preferences and endowments that lead to equilibria with incomplete risk sharing. We compare the resulting pricing kernel with the one for economies without participation constraints: interest rates are lower and risk premia depend on the covariance of the idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. Additionally, we show that asset prices depend only on the valuation of agents with substantial idiosyncratic risk.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2000 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 2000}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2014.10.16}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2999526} } @ARTICLE{Amato:Remolona, author = {Amato, Jeffery D. and Eli M. Remolona}, title = {The Credit Spread Puzzle}, journal = {BIS Quarterly Review}, year = {2003}, pages = {51-63}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.12.03} } @ARTICLE{Anderson99, author = {Robert N. Anderson}, title = {United States Life Tables, 1997}, journal = {National Vital Statistics Reports}, year = {1999}, volume = {47}, number = {28}, month = {December 13}, note = {National Center for Health Statistics}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Andolfatto:ge, author = {Andolfatto, David}, title = {Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search}, journal = aer, year = {1996}, volume = {86}, pages = {112-132}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.09.18} } @TECHREPORT{Angeletos:confidence, author = {George-Marios Angeletos and Fabrice Collard and Harris Dellas}, title = {Quantifying Confidence}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {20807}, month = {December}, abstract = {We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in confidence and show that it helps account for many salient features of the data; it drives a significant fraction of the volatility in estimated models that allow for multiple structural shocks; it captures a type of fluctuations in aggregate demand that does not rest on nominal rigidities; and it calls into question existing interpretations of the observed recessions. We complement these findings with evidence that most of the business cycle in the data is captured by an empirical factor which is unlike certain structural forces that are popular in the literature but similar to the one we formalize here.}, doi = {10.3386/w20807}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.03.07}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20807} } @UNPUBLISHED{Antras2001, author = {Pol Antr\`{a}s}, title = {Is the U.S. Aggregate Production Function Cobb-Douglas? New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution}, note = {MIT mimeo}, month = {February}, year = {2001}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Diegos:Gertler, author = {Diego Anzoategui and Diego Comin and Mark Gertler and Joseba Martinez}, title = {Endogenous Technology Adoption and R\&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence}, note = {Department of Economics, New York University}, month = {February}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.05.10} } @ARTICLE{ArbexPerobelli2010, author = {Arbex, Marcelo and Perobelli, Fernando S.}, title = {Solow Meets Leontief: Economic Growth and Energy Consumption}, journal = {Energy Economics}, year = {2010}, volume = {32}, pages = {43-53}, number = {1}, month = {January}, keywords = {Africa; Energy consumption; Growth; Cointegration; Causality}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{ArmenterLahiri2006, author = {Roc Armenter and Amartya Lahiri}, title = {Endogenous Productivity and Development Accounting}, note = {University of British Columbia working paper}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Arrowetal2004, author = {Kenneth Arrow and Partha Dasgupta and Lawrence Goulder and Gretchen Daily and Paul Ehrlich and Geoffrey Heal and Simon Levin and Karl-Goran Maler and Stephen Schneider and David Starrett and Brian Walker}, title = {Are We Consuming Too Much?}, journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives}, year = {2004}, volume = {18}, pages = {147-172}, number = {3}, month = {Summer}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{ArrowKurz70, title = {Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy}, publisher = {Johns Hopkins University Press}, year = {1970}, author = {Kenneth Arrow and Mordecai Kurz}, address = {Baltimore}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{arrow62b, author = {Arrow, Kenneth J.}, title = {Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention}, booktitle = { The Rate and Direction of Inventive Activity}, publisher = {Princeton University Press (NBER)}, year = {1962}, editor = {R.R. Nelson}, address = {Princeton, N.J.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Krish:Vissing, author = {Arvind Krishnamurthy, Annette Vissing-Jorgensen}, title = {The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2012}, volume = {120}, pages = {233-267}, number = {2}, abstract = {Investors value the liquidity and safety of US Treasuries. We document this by showing that changes in Treasury supply have large effects on a variety of yield spreads. As a result, Treasury yields are reduced by 73 basis points, on average, from 1926 to 2008. Both the liquidity and safety attributes of Treasuries are driving this phenomenon. We document this by analyzing the spread between assets with different liquidity (but similar safety) and those with different safety (but similar liquidity). The low yield on Treasuries due to their extreme safety and liquidity suggests that Treasuries in important respects are similar to money.}, issn = {00223808, 1537534X}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2016.03.16}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/666526} } @ARTICLE{Asness:Krail, author = {Asness, Clifford and Robert Krail and John Liew}, title = {Do Hedge Funds Hedge?}, journal = {Journal of Portfolio Management}, year = {2001}, volume = {Fall}, pages = {6-19}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2007.04.06} } @ARTICLE{Assness:Krail, author = {Asness, Clifford, Robert Krail, and John Liew}, title = {Do Hedge Funds Hedge?}, journal = {Journal of Portfolio Management}, year = {2001}, month = {Fall}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.04.10} } @TECHREPORT{Aspar:Bossaerts, author = {Elena Asparouhova and Peter Bossaerts and Nilanjan Roy and William Zame}, title = {'Lucas' In The Laboratory}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2013}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19068}, month = {May}, abstract = {This paper reports on experimental tests of an instantiation of the Lucas asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents and time-varying private income streams. Central features of the model (infinite horizon, perishability of consumption, stationarity) present difficult challenges and require a novel experimental design. The experimental evidence provides broad support for the qualitative pricing and consumption predictions of the model (prices move with fundamentals, agents smooth consumption) but sharp differences from the quantitative predictions emerge (asset prices display excess volatility, agents do not hedge price risk). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) tests of the stochastic Euler equations yield very different conclusions depending on the instruments chosen. It is suggested that the qualitative agreement with and quantitative deviation from theoretical predictions arise from agents' expectations about future prices, which are almost self-fulfilling and yet very different from what they would need to be if they were exactly self-fulfilling (as the Lucas model requires).}, owner = {Bobhall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2013.05.27}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19068} } @UNPUBLISHED{AtkesonKehoe2002, author = {Andrew A. Atkeson and Patrick J. Kehoe}, title = {The Transition To a New Economy Following the Second Industrial Revolution}, note = {NBER Working Paper 8676}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Atkeson:MP, author = {Atkeson, Andrew and Chari, Varadarajan V. and Kehoe, Patrick J.}, title = {Sophisticated Monetary Policies}, year = {2010}, volume = {125}, pages = {47-89}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.12.14} } @TECHREPORT{Attanasio:Hurst, author = {Orazio Attanasio and Erik Hurst and Luigi Pistaferri}, title = {The Evolution of Income, Consumption, and Leisure Inequality in The US, 1980-2010}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2012}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {17982}, month = {April}, abstract = {Recent research has documented that income inequality in the United States has increased dramatically over the prior three decades. There has been less of a consensus, however, on whether the increase in income inequality was matched by an equally large increase in consumption inequality. Most researchers have studied this question using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) and some studies have suggested that the increase in consumption inequality has been modest. Unfortunately ,there is now mounting evidence that the CE is plagued by serious non-classical measurement error, which hinders the extent to which definitive conclusions can be made about the extent to which consumption inequality has evolved over the last three decades. In this paper, we use a variety of different techniques to overcome the measurement error problems with the CE. First, we use data from the diary component of the CE, focusing on categories where measurement error has been found to be less of an issue. Second, we explore inequality measures within the CE using the value of vehicles owned, a consumption component that is considered to be measured well. Third, we try to account directly for the non-classical measurement error of the CE by comparing the spending on luxuries (entertainment) relative to necessities (food). This is similar to the recent approach taken by Browning and Crossley (2009) and Aguiar and Bils (2011). Finally, we use expenditure data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to explore the dynamics of alternative measures of consumption inequality. All of our different methods yield similar results. We find that consumption inequality within the U.S. between 1980 and 2010 has increased by nearly the same amount as income inequality.}, owner = {Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2012.04.09}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17982} } @ARTICLE{Attanasio:Banks, author = {Attanasio, Orazio P. and James Banks and Costas Meghir and Guglielmo Weber}, title = {Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption}, journal = {Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, year = {1999}, volume = {17}, pages = {22-35}, number = {1}, month = {January} } @ARTICLE{Attanasio:Davis, author = {Attanasio, Orazio P. and Steven J. Davis}, title = {Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption}, journal = jpe, year = {1996}, volume = {104}, pages = {1227-1262}, number = {6}, month = {December} } @ARTICLE{Attanasio:Low, author = {Attanasio, Orazio P. and Hamish Low}, title = {Estimating Euler Equations}, journal = red, year = {2004}, volume = {7}, pages = {406-435} } @ARTICLE{AttanasioWeber95, author = {Attanasio, Orazio P. and Weber, Guglielmo}, title = {{Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey}}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1995}, volume = {103}, pages = {1121-1157}, number = {6}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Attanasio:WeberRES, author = {Attanasio, Orazio P. and Guglielmo Weber}, title = {Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate, and Aggregation}, journal = restud, year = {1993}, volume = {60}, pages = {631-649}, number = {3}, month = {July} } @INCOLLECTION{auerbachpoterba87, author = {Auerbach, Alan J. and James M. Poterba}, title = {Why Have Corporate Tax Revenues Declined?}, booktitle = {Tax Policy and the Economy}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1987}, editor = {Lawrence H. Summers}, volume = {1}, pages = {1-27}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INBOOK{Ausubel:Cramton, chapter = {Bargaining with Incomplete Information}, title = {Handbook of Game Theory}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2002}, editor = {Aumann, Robert and Sergiu Hart}, author = {Ausubel, Lawrence M. and Peter Cramton and Raymond J. Deneckere}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2008.08.13} } @TECHREPORT{Autor:disab, author = {David H. Autor}, title = {The Unsustainable Rise of the Disability Rolls in the United States: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2011}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {17697}, month = {December}, abstract = {Two ailments limit the effectiveness and threaten the long-term viability of the U.S. Social Security Disability Insurance program (SSDI). First, the program is ineffective in assisting the vast majority of workers with less severe disabilities to reach their employment potential or earn their own way. Second, the program�s expenditures on cash transfers and medical benefits� exceeding $1,500 per U.S. household�are extremely high and growing unsustainably. There is no compelling evidence, however, that the incidence of disabling conditions among the U.S. working age population is rising. This paper discusses the challenges facing the SSDI program, explains how its design has led to rapid and unsustainable growth, considers why past efforts to slow program growth have met with minimal and fleeting success, and outlines three recent proposals that would modify the program to slow growth while potentially improving the employment prospects of workers with disabilities. Because these proposals depart substantially from a program design that has seen little change in half a century, their efficacy is unproven. Additionally, even well-meaning efforts to place the SSDI program on a sustainable trajectory run the risk of creating additional hurdles for claimants who are truly unable to work. Nevertheless, the imminent exhaustion of the SSDI Trust Fund provides an impetus and an opportunity to explore innovative solutions to the longstanding policy challenges posed by the SSDI program.}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.03.14}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17697} } @BOOK{Ayres:pervasive, title = {Pervasive Prejudice? Unconventional Evidence of Race and Gender Discrimination}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {2001}, author = {Ayres, Ian}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Ayres:Siegelman, author = {Ayres, Ian and Peter Siegelman}, title = {Race and Gender Discrimination in Bargaining for a New Car}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {1995}, volume = {85}, pages = {304-321}, number = {3}, month = {June}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Bachmann:Sinning, author = {Ronald Bachmann and Mathias Sinning}, title = {Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment}, journal = {Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics}, year = {2016}, note = {doi: 10.1111/obes, 12133}, institution = {IZA}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.13} } @BOOK{Bagley:Dauchy, title = {The Entrepreneur's Guide to Business Law}, publisher = {West Legal Studies in Business}, year = {2003}, author = {Bagley, Constance E. and Craig E. Dauchy}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.03.16} } @UNPUBLISHED{Bai:Rios, author = {Yan Bai and Jos\'{e} V\'{\i}ctor R\'{\i}os-Rull and Kjetil Storesletten}, title = {Demand Shocks as Productivity Shocks}, note = {University of Minneapolis}, month = {September}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.09.21} } @TECHREPORT{Baicker:Finkelstein, author = {Katherine Baicker and Amy Finkelstein and Jae Song and Sarah Taubman}, title = {The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Force Activity and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment }, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2013}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19547}, month = {October}, abstract = {In 2008, a group of uninsured low-income adults in Oregon was selected by lottery for the chance to apply for Medicaid. We use this randomized design and 2009 administrative data to evaluate the effect of Medicaid on labor market outcomes and participation in other social safety net programs. We find no significant effect of Medicaid on employment or earnings: our 95 percent confidence intervals allow us to reject that Medicaid causes a decline in employment of more than 4.4 percentage points, or an increase of more than 1.2 percentage points. We find that Medicaid increases receipt of food stamps, but has little, if any, impact on receipt of other government benefits, including SSDI.}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.03.14}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19547} } @ARTICLE{Bailyetal95, author = {Baily, Martin Neil and Gersbach, Hans and Scherer, F. M. and Lichtenberg, Frank R.}, title = {Efficiency in Manufacturing and the Need for Global Competition}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Microeconomics}, year = {1995}, pages = {307-358}, jstor_articletype = {primary_article}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2534776} } @BOOK{Balazs64, title = {Chinese Civilization and Bureaucracy, Variations on a Theme}, publisher = {Yale University Press}, year = {1964}, author = {Etienne Balazs}, address = {New Haven, CT}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BallMankiwReis:policy, author = {Ball, Laurence and N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis}, title = {Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2005}, volume = {52}, pages = {703-725}, number = {4} } @ARTICLE{Ball:Mazumder, author = {Ball, Laurence, and Sandeep Mazumder}, title = {The Evolution of Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2011}, pages = {337-405}, number = {1}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.03.21} } @INCOLLECTION{BanerjeeDuflo2005, author = {Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo}, title = {Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics}, booktitle = {Handbook of Economic Growth}, publisher = {North Holland}, year = {2005}, editor = {Philippe Aghion and Steven A. Durlauf}, pages = {473-552}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Banks:Blundell, author = {Banks, James and Richard Blundell and Sarah Tanner}, title = {Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?}, journal = aer, year = {1998}, volume = {88}, pages = {769-788}, number = {4}, month = {September} } @ARTICLE{Barlevy:mismatch, author = {Gadi Barlevy}, title = {Evaluating the Role of Labor Market Mismatch in Rising Unemployment}, journal = {Economic Perspectives}, year = {2011}, pages = {82-96}, month = {3rd Quarter}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.15} } @ARTICLE{Barnichon:Elsby, author = {Barnichon, Regis and Elsby, Michael and Hobijn, Bart and Sahin, Aysegul}, title = {Which Industries Are Shifting the Beveridge Curve?}, journal = {Monthly Labor Review}, year = {2012}, volume = {135}, pages = {25 - 37}, number = {6}, issn = {00981818}, keywords = {Macroeconomics: Production E23, Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital E24, Labor Demand J23}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.06.29}, url = {https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1317352&site=ehost-live&scope=site} } @ARTICLE{Barn:Fig, author = {Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura}, title = {Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation}, journal = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual}, year = {2015}, pages = {449-494}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.07.27} } @ARTICLE{Barnichon:FiguraME, author = {Barnichon, Regis and Figura, Andrew}, title = {Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2015}, volume = {7}, pages = {222-49}, number = {4}, month = {October}, doi = {10.1257/mac.20140116}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.11.30}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.20140116} } @UNPUBLISHED{Barnichon:Figura, author = {Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura}, title = {The Determinants of the Cycles and Trends in U.S. Unemployment}, note = {Federal Reserve Board}, month = {June}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.15} } @ARTICLE{Barro:AER, author = {Barro, Robert J.}, title = {Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2009}, volume = {99}, pages = {243--264}, number = {1}, month = {March}, doi = {10.1257/aer.99.1.243}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.29}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.99.1.243} } @ARTICLE{Barro:Voodoo, author = {Barro, Robert J.}, title = {Demand Side Voodoo Economics}, journal = {The Economists' Voice}, year = {2009}, volume = {6}, pages = {Article 5}, number = {2}, month = {February}, note = {Available at: http://www.bepress.com/ev/vol6/iss2/art5}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Barro:QJE, author = {Robert J. Barro}, title = {Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2006}, volume = {121}, pages = {823-866}, number = {3}, abstract = {The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate, and volatile stock returns. Another mystery that may be resolved is why expected real interest rates were low in the United States during major wars, such as World War II. The model, an extension of work by Rietz, maintains the tractable framework of a representative agent, time-additive and isoelastic preferences, and complete markets. The results hold with i.i.d. shocks to productivity growth in a Lucas-tree type economy and also with the inclusion of capital formation.}, issn = {00335533, 15314650}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, timestamp = {2016.11.27}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25098810} } @BOOK{Barro97, title = {Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-country Empirical Study}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1997}, author = {Robert J. Barro}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{BarroRobbins, author = {Robert J. Barro}, title = {Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 5698}, month = {August}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Barro:macro, title = {Macroeconomics}, publisher = {Wiley}, year = {1987}, author = {Barro, Robert J.}, address = {New York}, edition = {Second}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.31} } @ARTICLE{Barro:sticky, author = {Barro, Robert J.}, title = {Long-Term Contracting, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy}, journal = jme, year = {1977}, volume = {3}, pages = {305-316}, number = {3}, month = {July} } @ARTICLE{Barro:King, author = {Robert J. Barro and Robert G. King}, title = {Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1984}, volume = {99}, pages = {817-839}, number = {4}, abstract = {Time-separability of utility means that past work and consumption do not influence current and future tastes. This form of preferences does not restrict the size of intertemporal-substitution effects, but does place constraints on the relative responses of leisure and consumption to changes in relative prices and in permanent income. These constraints are important for evaluating the impact of shifts in expectations about the future, which play a key role in equilibrium models of the business cycle. Further, if consumption and effort are to be positively correlated over the cycle, then equilibrium theories with time-separable preferences predict a procyclical behavior for the real wage rate.}, issn = {00335533, 15314650}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, timestamp = {2016.08.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1883127} } @UNPUBLISHED{BarroLee96, author = {Robert J. Barro and Jongwha Lee}, title = {International Data on Education}, note = {Harvard University mimeo}, month = {January}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Barro:Mollerus, author = {Robert J. Barro and Andrew Mollerus}, title = {Safe Assets}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {20652}, month = {October}, abstract = {A safe asset's real value is insulated from shocks, including declines in GDP from rare macroeconomic disasters. However, in a Lucas-tree world, the aggregate risk is given by the process for GDP and cannot be altered by the creation of safe assets. Therefore, in the equilibrium of a representative-agent version of this economy, the quantity of safe assets will effectively be nil. With heterogeneity in coefficients of relative risk aversion, safe assets may take the form of private bond issues from low-risk-aversion to high-risk-aversion agents. The model assumes Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences and log utility (intertemporal elasticity of substitution equal to one) and achieves stationarity by having agents die off and be replaced. We derive the steady-state quantity of safe assets and the shares of each agent in equity ownership and overall assets. In a baseline case, the risk-free rate is 1.0% per year, the unlevered equity premium is 4.2%, and the quantity of safe assets ranges up to 10% of economy-wide assets (comprising the capitalized value of the full GDP). A disaster shock leads to an extended period in which the share of wealth held by the low-risk-averse agent and the risk-free rate are low but rising and the ratio of safe to total assets is high but falling. In the baseline model, Ricardian Equivalence holds in that added government bonds have no effect on the risk-free rate and the net quantity of safe assets. The implied crowding-out coefficient for private bonds with respect to public bonds is around -0.5, a value found in some existing empirical studies.}, doi = {10.3386/w20652}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.03.30}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20652} } @ARTICLE{Barro:Redlick, author = {Barro, Robert J. and Redlick, Charles J.}, title = {Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2011}, volume = {126}, pages = {51-102}, number = {1}, abstract = {For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4�0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6�0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is �permanent� (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1�0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment. The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases. Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced-budget multiplier for defense spending is negative. We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjq002}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/126/1/51.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.12.30}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/126/1/51.abstract} } @BOOK{BarroSalaBook, title = {Economic Growth}, publisher = {McGraw-Hill}, year = {1995}, author = {Barro, Robert J. and Xavier {Sala-i-Martin}}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{BarroSala90, author = {Barro, Robert J. and Xavier {Sala-i-Martin}}, title = {Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 3362}, month = {May}, year = {1990}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Barsky:Juster, author = {Barsky, Robert B. and F. Thomas Juster and Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro}, title = {Preference Paraameters and Behavioral Heterogeneity: An Experimental Approach in the Health and Retirement Study}, journal = qje, year = {1997}, volume = {112}, pages = {537-579}, number = {2}, month = {May} } @ARTICLE{Bartelsmanetal2009, author = {Bartelsman, E.J. and Haltiwanger, J. and Scarpetta, S.}, title = {{Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection}}, journal = {NBER Working Paper 15490}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Basak:hetero, author = {Suleyman Basak}, title = {Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs}, journal = {Journal of Banking and Finance}, year = {2005}, volume = {29}, pages = {2849 - 2881}, number = {11}, abstract = {This paper studies the dynamic behavior of security prices in the presence of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs. We provide a tractable continuous-time pure-exchange model and highlight the mechanism through which investors’ differences of opinion enter into security prices. In the determination of equilibrium, we employ a representative investor with stochastic weights and solve for all economic quantities in closed form, including the perceived market prices of risk and interest rate. The basic analysis is generalized to incorporate multiple sources of risk, disagreement about nonfundamentals, and multiple investors. Other applications involving multiple goods and nominal asset pricing within monetary economies are discussed. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.02.003}, issn = {0378-4266}, keywords = {Heterogeneous beliefs}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.03.30}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426605000385} } @ARTICLE{Bassetto:ftpl, author = {Bassetto, Marco}, title = {A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level}, journal = ema, year = {2002}, volume = {70}, pages = {2167-2195}, number = {6} } @ARTICLE{Bassetto:Messer, author = {Marco Bassetto and Todd Messer}, title = {{Fiscal Consequences of Paying Interest on Reserves}}, journal = {Fiscal Studies}, year = {2013}, volume = {34}, pages = {413-436}, month = {December}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.05.08} } @UNPUBLISHED{basu93, author = {Basu, Susanto}, title = {Procyclical Productivity: Overhead Inputs or Cyclical Utilization?}, note = {University of Michigan at Ann Arbor mimeo}, year = {1993}, organization = {University of Michigan at Ann Arbor}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BasuFernald2002, author = {Basu, Susanto and Fernald, John G.}, title = {Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology}, journal = {European Economic Review}, year = {2002}, volume = {46}, pages = {963-991}, number = {6}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v46y2002i6p963-991.html} } @ARTICLE{BasuFernaldKimball, author = {Basu, Susanto and Fernald, John G. and Kimball, Miles S.}, title = {Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2006}, volume = {96}, pages = {pp. 1418-1448}, number = {5}, abstract = {Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for aggregation effects, varying utilization of capital and labor, nonconstant returns, and imperfect competition. On impact, when technology improves, input use and nonresidential investment fall sharply. Output changes little. With a lag of several years, inputs and investment return to normal and output rises strongly. The standard one-sector real-business-cycle model is not consistent with this evidence. The evidence is consistent, however, with simple sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: when technology improves, inputs and investment generally fall in the short run, and output itself may also fall.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2006 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Dec., 2006}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2013.11.05}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/30034981} } @UNPUBLISHED{Basu:House, author = {Susanto Basu and Christopher L. House}, title = {Challenges for New Keynesian Models with Sticky Wages}, note = {NBER working paper 22279; forthcoming, \emph{Handbook of Macroeconomics}, v. 2,}, month = {March}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.05.03} } @UNPUBLISHED{Basu:Kimball, author = {Basu, Susanto and Miles S. Kimball}, title = {Long-Run Labor Supply and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution for Consumption}, note = {University of Michigan, Department of Economics}, month = {October}, year = {2002}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @ARTICLE{BaumolWolff96, author = {William J. Baumol and Edward N. Wolff}, title = {Catching up in the Postwar Period: Puerto Rico as the Fifth `Tiger'?}, journal = {World Development}, year = {1996}, volume = {24}, pages = {869-885}, number = {5}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Baxter:Farr, author = {Marianne Baxter and Dorsey D. Farr}, title = {Variable capital utilization and international business cycles }, journal = {Journal of International Economics }, year = {2005}, volume = {65}, pages = {335 - 347}, number = {2}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.01.004}, issn = {0022-1996}, keywords = {International business cycles}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.11.05}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199604000686} } @ARTICLE{Baxter:King, author = {Baxter, Marianne and King, Robert G.}, title = {Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series}, journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics}, year = {1999}, volume = {81}, pages = {pp. 575-593}, number = {4}, abstract = {Band-pass filters are useful in a wide range of economic contexts. This paper develops a set of approximate band-pass filters and illustrates their application to measuring the business-cycle component of macroeconomic activity. Detailed comparisons are made with several alternative filters commonly used for extracting business-cycle components.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1999 The MIT Press}, issn = {00346535}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Nov., 1999}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The MIT Press}, timestamp = {2014.03.18}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2646708} } @ARTICLE{Beaudry:rent, author = {Beaudry, Paul}, title = {Why an Informed Principal May Leave Rents to an Agent}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {1994}, volume = {35}, pages = {821-832}, number = {4}, abstract = {This paper characterizes incentive contracts for the situation where a principal is privately informed about the technology governing an agency relationship. In contrast to a standard principal-agent relationship, it is shown that a principal who values effort highly will choose to induce effort by paying a high base wage and low bonus payments. Moreover, the equilibrium contract has the principal transferring rents to the agent even though contracting possibilities are unrestricted and both principal and agent are risk neutral. Consequently, the informed-principal framework is shown to provide a rational for the payment of efficiency wages.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania}, issn = {00206598}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Nov., 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell for the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and Institute of Social and Economic Research - Osaka University}, timestamp = {2012.09.24}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2526999} } @UNPUBLISHED{DanBecker:nonwage, author = {Becker, Dan}, title = {Non-Wage Job Characteristics and the Case of the Missing Margin}, note = {http://ssrn.com/abstract=1805761}, month = {April}, year = {2011}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.08.09} } @BOOK{Becker:discrimination, title = {The Economics of Discrimination}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1957}, author = {Becker, Gary}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @BOOK{Becker76, title = {The Economic Approach to Human Behavior}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1976}, author = {Gary S. Becker}, address = {Chicago, IL}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Becker60, author = {Gary S. Becker}, title = {An Economic Analysis of Fertility}, booktitle = {Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {1960}, address = {Princeton, NJ}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BeckerPhilipsonSoares2005, author = {Gary S. Becker and Tomas J. Philipson and Rodrigo R. Soares}, title = {The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2005}, volume = {95}, pages = {277-291}, number = {1}, month = {March}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v95y2005i1p277-291.html} } @ARTICLE{Belo:Lin, author = {Belo, Frederico and Lin,, Xiaoji and Bazdresch, Santiago}, title = {Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2014}, volume = {122}, pages = {pp. 129-177}, number = {1}, abstract = {We study the impact of labor market frictions on asset prices. In the cross section of US firms, a 10 percentage point increase in the firm�s hiring rate is associated with a 1.5 percentage point decrease in the firm�s annual risk premium. We propose an investment-based model with stochastic labor adjustment costs to explain this finding. Firms with high hiring rates are expanding firms that incur high adjustment costs. If the economy experiences a shock that lowers adjustment costs, these firms benefit the most. The corresponding increase in firm value operates as a hedge against these shocks, explaining the lower risk premium of these firms in equilibrium.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2014 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {February 2014}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2015.09.20}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/674549} } @ARTICLE{Benhabib:traps, author = {Jess Benhabib and Stephanie Schmitt-Groh\'{e} and Mart�n Uribe}, title = {Avoiding Liquidity Traps}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2002}, volume = {110}, pages = {535-563}, number = {3}, abstract = {Once the zero bound on nominal interest rates is taken into account, Taylor?type interest rate feedback rules give rise to unintended self?fulfilling decelerating inflation paths and aggregate fluctuations driven by arbitrary revisions in expectations. These undesirable equilibria exhibit the essential features of liquidity traps since monetary policy is ineffective in bringing about the government�s goals regarding the stability of output and prices. This paper proposes several fiscal and monetary policies that preserve the appealing features of Taylor rules, such as local uniqueness of equilibrium near the inflation target, and at the same time rule out the deflationary expectations that can lead an economy into a liquidity trap.}, copyright = {Copyright 2002 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2012.12.07}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/339713} } @UNPUBLISHED{Benigno:Fornaro, author = {Gianluca Benigno and Luca Fornaro}, title = {Stagnation Traps}, note = {London School of Economics}, month = {January}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @UNPUBLISHED{BentolilaStPaul2003, author = {Samuel Bentolila and Gilles Saint-Paul}, title = {Explaining Movements in the Labor Share}, note = {CEMFI mimeo}, year = {2003}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Beraja:Hurst, author = {Martin Beraja and Erik Hurst and Juan Ospina}, title = {The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles}, note = {University of Chicago}, month = {March}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.06.23} } @ARTICLE{Menzio:Wright, author = {Berentsen, Aleksander and Menzio, Guido and Wright, Randall}, title = {Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2011}, volume = {101}, pages = {pp. 371-398}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 2011 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {FEBRUARY 2011}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2015.10.26}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/41038792} } @TECHREPORT{Bernanke:glut, author = {Ben S. Bernanke and Carol Bertaut and Laurie Pounder DeMarco and Steven Kamin}, title = {International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003-2007}, institution = {Federal Reserve Board,}, year = {2011}, number = {1014}, month = {February}, note = {International Finance Discussion Papers}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.03.16} } @INCOLLECTION{Bernanke:BGG, author = {Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler and Simon Gilchrist}, title = {The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework}, booktitle = {Handbook of Macroeconomics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {1999}, editor = {John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford}, chapter = {21}, pages = {1341--1393} } @ARTICLE{BernardDurlauf96, author = {Andrew B. Bernard and Steven N. Durlauf}, title = {Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis}, journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, year = {1996}, volume = {71}, pages = {161-173}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BernardDurlauf95, author = {Andrew B. Bernard and Steven N. Durlauf}, title = {Convergence in International Output}, journal = {Journal of Applied Econometrics}, year = {1995}, volume = {10}, pages = {97-108}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Berndt:Hollifield, author = {Antje Berndt and Burton Hollifield and Patrik Sand�s}, title = {The Role of Mortgage Brokers in the Subprime Crisis}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2010}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {16175}, month = {July}, abstract = {Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokers originated about 65% of all subprime mortgages. Yet little is known about their behavior during the runup to the crisis. Using data from New Century Financial Corporation, we find that brokers earned an average revenue of $5,300 per funded loan. We decompose the broker revenues into a cost and a profit component and find evidence consistent with brokers having market power. The profits earned are different for different types of loans and vary with borrower, broker, regulation and neighborhood characteristics. We relate the broker profits to the subsequent performance of the loans and show that brokers earned high profits on loans that turned out to be riskier ex post.}, owner = {Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2011.03.29}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w16175} } @UNPUBLISHED{Berndtetal2000, author = {Ernst R. Berndt and Anupa Bir and Susan H. Busch and Richard G. Frank and Shaon-Lise T. Normand}, title = {The Medical Treatment of Depression, 1991--1996: Productive Inefficiency, Expected Outcome Variations, and Price Indexes}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 7816}, year = {2000}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{berndtchristensen73, author = {Berndt, Ernst R. and Laurits R. Christensen}, title = {The Translog Function and the Substitution of Equipment, Structures and Labor in U.S. Manufacturing, 1929--68}, journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, year = {1973}, volume = {1}, pages = {81-113}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BerrielBhattaraiBE09, author = {Berriel, Tiago and Saroj Bhattarai}, title = {Monetary Policy and Central Bank Balance Sheet Concerns}, journal = {Contributions to Macroeconomics}, year = {2009}, volume = {9}, pages = {1}, number = {1}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @ARTICLE{Berry:BLP, author = {Berry, Steven and Levinsohn, James and Pakes, Ariel}, title = {Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1995}, volume = {63}, pages = {841-890}, number = {4}, abstract = {This paper develops techniques for empirically analyzing demand and supply in differentiated products markets and then applies these techniques to analyze equilibrium in the U.S. automobile industry. Our primary goal is to present a framework which enables one to obtain estimates of demand and cost parameters for a class of oligopolistic differentiated products markets. These estimates can be obtained using only widely available product-level and aggregate consumer-level data, and they are consistent with a structural model of equilibrium in an oligopolistic industry. When we apply the techniques developed here to the U.S. automobile market, we obtain cost and demand parameters for (essentially) all models marketed over a twenty year period.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1995 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 1995}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2014.10.08}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2171802} } @ARTICLE{BertrandGoldinKatz2010, author = {Marianne Bertrand and Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz}, title = {Dynamics of the Gender Gap for Young Professionals in the Financial and Corporate Sectors}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics}, year = {2010}, volume = {2}, pages = {228-55}, number = {3}, month = {July}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejapp/v2y2010i3p228-55.html} } @BOOK{Bewley:nofall, title = {Why Wages Don't Fall During a Recession}, publisher = {\hspace{0.05in}Harvard University Press}, year = {1999}, author = {Bewley, Truman}, address = {Cambridge} } @ARTICLE{BhattacharyaVogt2003, author = {J. Bhattacharya and W. Vogt}, title = {A Simple Model of Pharmaceutical Price Dynamics}, journal = {Journal of Law and Economics}, year = {2003}, volume = {46}, pages = {599-626}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Bhattarai:Eggertsson:Gafarov, author = {Bhattarai, Saroj and Gauti Eggertsson and Bulat Gafarov}, title = {Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing}, note = {UT Austin and Brown University}, year = {2014}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.05.08} } @TECHREPORT{Bhutta:delever, author = {Neil Bhutta}, title = {Mortgage Debt and Household Deleveraging: Accounting for the Decline in Mortgage Debt Using Consumer Credit Record Data}, institution = {Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Divisions of Research \& Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.}, year = {2012}, number = {2012-14}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.04.01} } @UNPUBLISHED{Bianchi:Ilut, author = {Francesco Bianchi and Cosmin Ilut and Martin Schneider}, title = {Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle}, note = {Duke University, Department of Economics}, month = {December}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2013.04.21} } @ARTICLE{Bilbiie:Non-separable, author = {Bilbiie, Florin O.}, title = {Non-Separable Preferences and Frisch Labor Supply: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {2009}, volume = {Forthcoming}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @BOOK{Billingsley86, title = {Probability and Measure}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons}, year = {1986}, author = {Patrick Billingsley}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Pricing, author = {Bils, Mark}, title = {Pricing in a Customer Market}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1989}, volume = {104}, pages = {699-718}, number = {4}, month = {November}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Cyclical, author = {Bils, Mark}, title = {The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1987}, volume = {77}, pages = {838-855}, number = {5}, month = {December}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Kim, author = {Bils, Mark and Chang, Yongsung and Kim, Sun-Bin}, title = {Worker Heterogeneity and Endogenous Separations in a Matching Model of Unemployment Fluctuations}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2011}, volume = {3}, pages = {128-54}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1257/mac.3.1.128}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.06.01}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.3.1.128} } @TECHREPORT{Bils:wedge, author = {Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow and Benjamin A. Malin}, title = {Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {20555}, month = {October}, abstract = {Employment and hours appear far more cyclical than dictated by the behavior of productivity and consumption. This puzzle has been labeled "the labor wedge" -- a cyclical wedge between the marginal product of labor and the marginal rate of substitution of consumption for leisure. The wedge can be broken into a product market wedge (price markup) and a labor market wedge (wage markup). Based on the wages of employees, the literature has attributed the wedge almost entirely to labor market distortions. Because employee wages may be smoothed versions of the true cyclical price of labor, we instead examine the self-employed, intermediate inputs, and work-in-process inventories. Looking at the past quarter century in the U.S., we find that price markup movements are at least as important as wage markup movements -- including in the Great Recession and its aftermath. Thus sticky prices and other forms of countercyclical markups deserve a central place in business cycle research, alongside sticky wages and matching frictions.}, doi = {10.3386/w20555}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.02.25}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20555} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Chang, author = {Bils, Mark, and Chang, Yongsung}, title = {Understanding How Price Responds to Costs and Production}, journal = {Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy}, year = {2000}, volume = {52}, pages = {33-78}, month = {June}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Kahn, author = {Bils, Mark, and Kahn, James}, title = {What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2000}, volume = {90}, pages = {458-481}, number = {3}, month = {June}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Bils:Klenow, author = {Bils, Mark, and Klenow, Peter}, title = {Using Consumer Theory to Test Competing Business Cycle Models}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1998}, volume = {106}, pages = {233-261}, number = {2}, month = {April}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Binmore:BRW, author = {Binmore, Ken and Ariel Rubinstein and Asher Wolinsky}, title = {The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modeling}, journal = rand, year = {1986}, volume = {17}, pages = {176-188}, number = {2}, month = {Summer} } @ARTICLE{BirchenallSoares2009, author = {Javier A. Birchenall and Rodrigo R. Soares}, title = {Altruism, fertility, and the value of children: Health policy evaluation and intergenerational welfare}, journal = {Journal of Public Economics}, year = {2009}, volume = {93}, pages = {280-295}, number = {1-2}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.06.005}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-4SWN0KS-1/2/195385cc7ff2a6d1b7aff7b90598ead9} } @UNPUBLISHED{Bitler:Hoynes, author = {Marianne Bitler and Hilary Hoynes}, title = {The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same: The Safety Net, Living Arrangements, and Poverty in the Great Recession}, note = {Department of Economics, UC Berkeley}, month = {September}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.03.14} } @ARTICLE{bizerjudd89, author = {Bizer, David S. and Kenneth L. Judd}, title = {Taxation and Uncertainty}, journal = {American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings}, year = {1989}, volume = {79}, pages = {331-336}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BlackScholes72, author = {Fischer Black and Myron S. Scholes}, title = {The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {1972}, volume = {27}, pages = {399-417}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Black:etal, author = {Black, Harold A. and Boehm, Thomas P. and DeGennaro, Ramon P.}, title = {Is There Discrimination in Mortgage Pricing? The Case of Overages}, journal = {Journal of Banking \& Finance}, year = {2003}, volume = {27}, pages = {1139-1165}, number = {6}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.03.29}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v27y2003i6p1139-1165.html} } @ARTICLE{Blair:Lewis, author = {Blair, Benjamin F. and Lewis, Tracy R.}, title = {Optimal Retail Contracts with Asymmetric Information and Moral Hazard}, journal = {The RAND Journal of Economics}, year = {1994}, volume = {25}, pages = {284-296}, number = {2}, abstract = {Constrained joint-profit-maximizing retail contracts are derived when the dealer is privately informed about demand conditions before contracting with the manufacturer. Demand is increased by dealer promotion, which is unobservable by the manufacturer. Consequently, the manufacturer does not know whether to attribute a low level of sales to a decline in demand or to a lack of promotion. We show that, in general, the optimal contract exhibits some form of resale price maintenance and quantity fixing. The type of resale price maintenance and quantity fixing depends on how price and quantity affect the link between sales and promotion.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 The RAND Corporation}, issn = {07416261}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Summer, 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of The RAND Corporation}, timestamp = {2012.09.22}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2555831} } @ARTICLE{Blanchard:Gali, author = {Blanchard, Olivier and Jordi Gal\'{\i}}, title = {Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {2007}, volume = {39}, pages = {35-66}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.09.18} } @ARTICLE{BlanchardKremer97, author = {Blanchard, Olivier and Kremer, Michael}, title = {Disorganization}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1997}, volume = {112}, pages = {1091-1126}, number = {4}, month = {November}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Blanchard:CPS, author = {Blanchard, Olivier J. and Peter A. Diamond}, title = {The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers}, journal = bpea, year = {1990}, pages = {85-143}, number = {2} } @ARTICLE{Blanchard:Perotti, author = {Blanchard, Olivier, and Perotti, Roberto}, title = {An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2002}, volume = {117}, pages = {1329-1369}, number = {4}, month = {November}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.08.13} } @TECHREPORT{Blanch:Levin, author = {David G. Blanchflower and Andrew T. Levin}, title = {Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2015}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {21094}, month = {April}, abstract = {In the wake of a severe recession and a sluggish recovery, labor market slack cannot be gauged solely in terms of the conventional measure of the unemployment rate (that is, the number of individuals who are not working at all and actively searching for a job). Rather, assessments of the employment gap should reflect the incidence of underemployment (that is, people working part time who want a full-time job) and the extent of hidden unemployment (that is, people who are not actively searching but who would rejoin the workforce if the job market were stronger). In this paper, we examine the evolution of U.S. labor market slack and show that underemployment and hidden unemployment currently account for the bulk of the U.S. employment gap. Next, using state-level data, we find strong statistical evidence that each of these forms of labor market slack exerts significant downward pressure on nominal wages. Finally, we consider the monetary policy implications of the employment gap in light of prescriptions from Taylor-style benchmark rules.}, doi = {10.3386/w21094}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.20}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21094} } @ARTICLE{Blank:1962, author = {Blank, David M.}, title = {Cyclical Behavior of National Advertising}, journal = {The Journal of Business}, year = {1962}, volume = {35}, pages = {14-27}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 1962 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00219398}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jan., 1962}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2012.08.30}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2351078} } @ARTICLE{Blau:nonwage, author = {David M. Blau}, title = {Search for Nonwage Job Characteristics: A Test of the Reservation Wage Hypothesis}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, year = {1991}, volume = {9}, pages = {186-205}, number = {2}, abstract = {Previous structural models of job search behavior have been based upon the reservation wage property. This article provides estimates of a more general search model that nests models with the reservation wage property. The estimates lead to rejection of the reservation wage property. The model includes hours of work in the utility function, but other nonwage job characteristics can be included as well. An experiment based on the estimated parameters indicates that a significant proportion of job offers would be mistakenly predicted to be accepted or rejected under the restrictions implied by the reservation wage property.}, issn = {0734306X, 15375307}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {[University of Chicago Press, Society of Labor Economists, NORC at the University of Chicago]}, timestamp = {2016.08.04}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2535240} } @ARTICLE{Blau:Robins, author = {David M. Blau and Philip K. Robins}, title = {Job Search Outcomes for the Employed and Unemployed}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1990}, volume = {98}, pages = {637-655}, number = {3}, abstract = {This paper examines how four components of the job search process--the choice of search methods, the choice of how many firms to contact, the rate at which offers are received, and the acceptance or rejection of an offer--influence the job-finding rate. A reduced-form model of job search is estimated that takes account of the fact that users of a particular method of job search are not a random subset of all searchers. The empirical analysis focuses on differences in search behavior between the employed and unemployed. A key finding of the analysis is that the offer rate per contact is greater for employed searchers than for unemployed searchers. This may be due to differences in the effectiveness of search while employed versus unemployed or to unobserved differences in search effort. Further research on this issue is needed because many models of job search behavior are based on the assumption that job search is more effective when one is unemployed.}, issn = {00223808, 1537534X}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2016.07.05}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937703} } @BOOK{Blaxter86, title = {People, Food, and Resources}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1986}, author = {Kenneth Blaxter}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Blundell:Shephard, author = {Blundell, Richard and Shephard, Andrew}, title = {Employment, Hours of Work and the Optimal Taxation of Low-Income Families.}, year = {2012}, volume = {79}, pages = {481 - 510}, number = {2}, issn = {00346527}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2014.10.08}, url = {https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=EP74582650&site=ehost-live&scope=site} } @ARTICLE{Blundell:Pistaferri, author = {Blundell, Richard, and Luigi Pistaferri and Ian Preston}, title = {Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2008}, volume = {98}, pages = {1887-1921}, number = {5}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.16} } @ARTICLE{Bohn:JMCB, author = {Bohn, Henning}, title = {The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {1995}, volume = {27}, pages = {257-271}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 1995 Ohio State University Press}, issn = {00222879}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Feb., 1995}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Ohio State University Press}, timestamp = {2012.11.20}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2077862} } @ARTICLE{Boldrin:Christiano, author = {Boldrin, Michele and Christiano, Lawrence J. and Fisher, Jonas D. M.}, title = {Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2001}, volume = {91}, pages = {149--166}, number = {1}, month = {March}, doi = {10.1257/aer.91.1.149}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.17}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.91.1.149} } @ARTICLE{BoldrinLevine2008, author = {Boldrin, Michele and Levine, David K.}, title = {Perfectly Competitive Innovation}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2008}, volume = {55}, pages = {435-453}, number = {3}, month = {April}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{BoldrinLevine2004, author = {Michele Boldrin and David K. Levine}, title = {Intellectual Property and the Scale of the Market}, note = {UCLA mimeo}, year = {2004}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{BoldrinLevine2002, author = {Michele Boldrin and David K. Levine}, title = {Perfectly Competitive Innovation}, note = {FRB of Minneapolis Staff Report 303}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Bonhomme:Gregory, author = {Bonhomme, St\'{e}phane and Jolivet, Gr\'{e}gory}, title = {The pervasive absence of compensating differentials}, journal = {Journal of Applied Econometrics}, year = {2009}, volume = {24}, pages = {763-795}, number = {5}, doi = {10.1002/jae.1074}, issn = {1099-1255}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}, timestamp = {2012.06.01}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.1074} } @ARTICLE{Bontemps:Robin, author = {Bontemps, Christian and Robin, Jean-Marc and Berg, Gerard J. van den}, title = {Equilibrium Search with Continuous Productivity Dispersion: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {2000}, volume = {41}, pages = {305-358}, number = {2}, abstract = {In this article we develop an equilibrium search model with a continuous distribution of firm productivity types within a given labor market. We characterize equilibrium, derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions, and characterize the set of wage distributions that can be generated by the model. We develop a structural nonparametric estimation method for the productivity distribution. We estimate the model using French longitudinal survey data on labor supply, and we compare the results with those from a French panel data set of firms. The results are informative on the degree to which firms exploit search frictions.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2000 Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania}, issn = {00206598}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {May, 2000}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell for the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and Institute of Social and Economic Research -- Osaka University}, timestamp = {2012.09.01}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2648885} } @ARTICLE{Boone:competition, author = {Boone, Jan}, title = {A New Way to Measure Competition.}, journal = {Economic Journal}, year = {2008}, volume = {118}, pages = {1245 - 1261}, number = {531}, issn = {00130133}, keywords = {Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms L11, Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets L13, Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope L25}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.18}, url = {https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0995150&site=ehost-live&scope=site} } @BOOK{Borden:ads, title = {The Economic Effects of Advertising}, publisher = {Irwin}, year = {1942}, author = {Neil Hopper Borden}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.10.17} } @TECHREPORT{Borovicka:Hansen, author = {Jaroslav Borovicka and Lars P. Hansen and Jose A. Scheinkman}, title = {Misspecified Recovery}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {20209}, month = {June}, abstract = {Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of these states. Without additional assumptions, probabilities and stochastic discounting cannot be separately identified. Ross (2013) introduced a set of assumptions that restrict the dynamics of the stochastic discount factor in a way that allows for the recovery of the underlying probabilities. We use decomposition results for stochastic discount factors from Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) to explain when this procedure leads to misspecified recovery. We also argue that the empirical evidence on asset prices indicates that the recovered measure would differ substantially from the actual probability distribution and that interpreting this measure as the true probability distribution may severely bias our inference about risk premia, investors' aversion to risk, and the welfare cost of economic fluctuations.}, doi = {10.3386/w20209}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.09.21}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20209} } @ARTICLE{Boro:Martins, author = {Daniel Borowczyk-Martins and Gr\'{e}gory Jolivet and Fabien Postel-Vinay}, title = {Accounting for endogeneity in matching function estimation }, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics }, year = {2013}, volume = {16}, pages = {440 - 451}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1016/j.red.2012.07.001}, issn = {1094-2025}, keywords = {Matching function estimation}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2013.05.30}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S109420251200035X} } @BOOK{Boserup65, title = {The Conditions of Agricultural Progress}, publisher = {Aldine Publishing Company}, year = {1965}, author = {Ester Boserup}, address = {Chicago, IL}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Bound:Krueger, author = {John Bound and Alan B. Krueger}, title = {The Extent of Measurement Error in Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make a Right?}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, year = {1991}, volume = {9}, pages = {1-24}, number = {1}, month = {January}, timestamp = {2013.12.03} } @INCOLLECTION{boundcummingsetal84, author = {Bound, John, Clint Cummings, Zvi Griliches, Bronwyn H. Hall and Adam Jaffe}, title = {Who Does R\&D and Who Patents?}, booktitle = {R\&D, Patents and Productivity}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1984}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, pages = {21-54}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{BoyceDiPrima97, title = {Elementary Differential Equations and Boundary Value Problems}, publisher = {John Wiley and Sons}, year = {1997}, author = {William E. Boyce and Richard C. DiPrima}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Brugemann:Moscarini, author = {Br\"{u}gemann, Bj\"{o}rn and Giuseppe Moscarini}, title = {Rent Rigidity, Asymmetric Information, and Volatility Bounds in Labor Market}, note = {Department of Economics, Yale University}, month = {December}, year = {2008}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.19} } @ARTICLE{BresnahanTrajtenberg95, author = {Bresnahan, Timothy F. and Trajtenberg, M.}, title = {General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?}, journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, year = {1995}, volume = {65}, pages = {83-108}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{brockmirman72, author = {Brock, William A. and Mirman, Leonard J.}, title = {Optimal Economic Growth and Uncertainty: The Discounted Case}, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, year = {1972}, volume = {4}, pages = {479-513}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BrockTaylor2005, author = {Brock, William and Taylor, M. Scott}, title = {{Economic Growth Theory and the Environment: A Review of Theory and Empirics}}, journal = {Handbook of Economic Growth}, year = {2005}, pages = {1749-1821}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{BrodaWeinstein2006, author = {Christian Broda and David E. Weinstein}, title = {Globalization and the Gains from Variety}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2006}, volume = {121}, pages = {541-585}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Browning:Crossley, author = {Browning, Martin and Thomas F. Crossley}, title = {Unemployment Insurance Benefit Levels and Consumption Changes}, journal = jpube, year = {2001}, volume = {80}, pages = {1-23} } @ARTICLE{Browning:Deaton, author = {Browning, Martin and Angus Deaton and Margaret Irish}, title = {A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle}, journal = ema, year = {1985}, volume = {53}, pages = {503-544}, number = {3} } @TECHREPORT{Brunner:Eisen, author = {Markus K. Brunnermeier and Thomas M. Eisenbach and Yuliy Sannikov}, title = {Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2012}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {18102}, month = {May}, abstract = {This article surveys the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. Financial frictions lead to persistence and when combined with illiquidity to non-linear amplification effects. Risk is endogenous and liquidity spirals cause financial instability. Increasing margins further restrict leverage and exacerbate downturns. A demand for liquid assets and a role for money emerges. The market outcome is generically not even constrained efficient and the issuance of government debt can lead to a Pareto improvement. While financial institutions can mitigate frictions, they introduce additional fragility and through their erratic money creation harm price stability.}, doi = {10.3386/w18102}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.03.25}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18102} } @ARTICLE{BrunnermeierGollierParker2007, author = {Brunnermeier, Markus K. and Christian Gollier and Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2007}, volume = {97}, pages = {159-65}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @TECHREPORT{BrunnermeierParkerPapakonstantinou2008, author = {Brunnermeier, Markus K. and Filippos Papakonstantinou and Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {An Economic Model of the Planning Fallacy}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc}, year = {2008}, type = {NBER Working Papers}, number = {14228}, month = {August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{BrunnermeierParker2005, author = {Markus K. Brunnermeier and Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Optimal Expectations}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2005}, volume = {95}, pages = {1092-1118}, number = {4}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Brunnermeier:Sannikov, author = {Brunnermeier, Markus K. and Sannikov, Yuliy}, title = {A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2014}, volume = {104}, pages = {379-421}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1257/aer.104.2.379}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2014.10.16}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.2.379} } @ARTICLE{Brynjolfsson96, author = {Erik Brynjolfsson}, title = {The Contribution of Information Technology to Consumer Welfare}, journal = {Information Systems Research}, year = {1996}, volume = {7}, pages = {281-300}, number = {3}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{2002, author = {Brynjolfsson, Erik and Hitt, Lorin M. and Yang, Shinkyu}, title = {Intangible Assets: Computers and Organizational Capital}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2002}, volume = {2002}, pages = {137-181}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 2002 The Brookings Institution}, issn = {00072303}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {2002}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {The Brookings Institution}, timestamp = {2011.06.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1209176} } @ARTICLE{BrynjolfssonHuSmith2003, author = {Erik Brynjolfsson and Yu Hu and Michael D. Smith}, title = {Consumer Surplus in the Digital Economy: Estimating the Value of Increased Product Variety at Online Booksellers}, journal = {Management Science}, year = {2003}, volume = {49}, pages = {1580-1596}, number = {11}, month = {November}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Buchinsky:Fougere, author = {Buchinsky, Moshe and Foug\`{e}re, Denis and Kramarz, Francis and Tchernis, Rusty}, title = {Interfirm Mobility, Wages and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the United States.}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {2010}, volume = {77}, pages = {972 - 1001}, number = {3}, issn = {00346527}, keywords = {Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials J31, Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion J62, Personnel Economics: Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions M51}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2014.10.13}, url = {https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=1113217&site=ehost-live&scope=site} } @ARTICLE{BueraShin2008, author = {Buera, Francisco J. and Shin, Yongseok}, title = {{Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration}}, journal = {Manuscript, Washington University in St. Louis}, year = {2008}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Buiter:NegRate, author = {Willem H. Buiter}, title = {Negative Nominal Interest Rates: Three Ways to Overcome the Zero Lower Bound}, journal = {The North American Journal of Economics and Finance}, year = {2009}, volume = {20}, pages = {213-238}, number = {3}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2009.10.001}, issn = {1062-9408}, keywords = {Monetary policy}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.05.29}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5T-4XH0MV5-1/2/76edb3abef800299edf1336892bd0a48} } @ARTICLE{Buraschi:Trojani, author = {Buraschi, Andrea and Fabio Trojani and Andrea Vedolin}, title = {Economic Uncertainty, Disagreement, and Credit Markets}, journal = {Management Science}, year = {2014}, volume = {60.5}, pages = {1281--1296}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.03.30} } @ARTICLE{Burdett:OJS, author = {Burdett, Kenneth}, title = {A Theory of Employee Job Search and Quit Rates}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1978}, volume = {68}, pages = {212-220}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 1978 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Mar., 1978}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2012.06.01}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1809701} } @ARTICLE{Burdett:Judd, author = {Burdett, Kenneth and Judd, Kenneth L.}, title = {Equilibrium Price Dispersion}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1983}, volume = {51}, pages = {955-969}, number = {4}, abstract = {It is shown that wquilibria with dispersed prices exist in environments with identical and rational agents on both sides of the market. In particular, the original Stigler model of nonsequential search often has many equilibria, some with price dispersion. Also, price dispersion holds in equilibrium in general if search is "noisy," i.e., there is some chance of learning two or more prices when an agent is looking for one price.}, copyright = {Copyright © 1983 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {primary_article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 1983}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2010.02.10}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1912045} } @ARTICLE{Burdett:Mortensen, author = {Burdett, Kenneth and Dale T. Mortensen}, title = {Wage Differentials, Employer Size,and Unemployment}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {1998}, volume = {39}, pages = {257-273}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.03.30} } @BOOK{bea93, title = {National Income and Product Accounts of the United States: Volume 1, 1929--58}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1993}, author = {{Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce}}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{bea86, title = {National Income and Product Accounts of the United States: 1929--82}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1986}, author = {{Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce}}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{bls2000, author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor}}, title = {Comparative Civilian Labor Force Statistics, 10 Countries, 1959--1999}, note = {April 17}, year = {2000}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{bls99, author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor}}, title = {Multifactor Productivity Trends, 1997}, note = {Bulletin}, month = {February}, year = {1999}, address = {Washington D.C.}, day = {11}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{bls96, author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor}}, title = {Multifactor Productivity Trends, 1994}, note = {USDL 95-518}, month = {January}, year = {1996}, address = {Washington D.C.}, day = {17}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{bls91, author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor}}, title = {Multifactor Productivity Measures, 1990}, note = {News}, month = {August}, year = {1991}, address = {Washington D.C.}, day = {29}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{bls89, author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor}}, title = {The Impact of Research and Development on Productivity Growth}, note = {Bulletin 2331}, month = {September}, year = {1989}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{CensusEd96, author = {{Bureau of the Census}}, title = {Current Population Reports: Educational Attainment in the United States: March 1995}, note = {P20-489}, month = {August}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{census75, title = {Historical Statistics of the United States}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1975}, author = {{Bureau of the Census}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Burnside:Eichenbaum, author = {Burnside, Craig and Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo}, title = {Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets}, note = {Department of Economics, Northwestern University}, month = {November}, year = {2010}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.07.05} } @ARTICLE{Busse:Silva, author = {Busse, Meghan and Jorge Silva-Risso and Florian Zettelmeyer}, title = {\$1,000 Cash Back: The Pass-Through of Auto Manufacturer Promotions}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {2006}, volume = {96}, pages = {1253-1270}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Butters:JMP, author = {Butters, Gerard R.}, title = {Equilibrium Distributions of Sales and Advertising Prices}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {1977}, volume = {44}, pages = {465-491}, number = {3}, month = {October}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @TECHREPORT{Curdia:Wood, author = {Vasco C\'{u}rdia and Michael Woodford}, title = {Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2015}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {21820}, month = {December}, abstract = {We extend the basic (representative-household) New Keynesian [NK] model of the monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers and borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous or endogenous reasons. We find that the mere existence of a positive average spread makes little quantitative difference for the predicted effects of particular policies. Variation in spreads over time is of greater significance, with consequences both for the equilibrium relation between the policy rate and aggregate expenditure and for the relation between real activity and inflation. Nonetheless, we find that the target criterion—a linear relation that should be maintained between the inflation rate and changes in the output gap—that characterizes optimal policy in the basic NK model continues to provide a good approximation to optimal policy, even in the presence of variations in credit spreads. Such a "flexible inflation target" can be implemented by a central-bank reaction function that is similar to a forward-looking Taylor rule, but adjusted for changes in current and expected future credit spreads.}, doi = {10.3386/w21820}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.01.05}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21820} } @ARTICLE{Curdia:balance, author = {Vasco C\'{u}rdia and Michael Woodford}, title = {The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2011}, volume = {58}, pages = {54-79}, number = {1}, note = {We propose a novel theory of self-fulfilling fluctuations in the labor market. A firm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other firms, because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers. We quantify these shopping externalities and show that they are sufficiently strong to create strategic complementarities in the employment decisions of different firms and to generate multiple rational expectations equilibria. Equilibria differ with respect to agents{\textquoteright} (rational) expectations about future unemployment. We show that negative shocks to agents{\textquoteright} expectations lead to fluctuations in vacancies, unemployment, labor productivity and the stock market that closely resemble those observed in the US during the Great Recession.
}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {r\&r at Journal or Political Economy}, timestamp = {2014.09.21} } @ARTICLE{Kaplan:Violante, author = {Kaplan, Greg and Violante, Giovanni L.}, title = {A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {2014}, volume = {82}, pages = {1199--1239}, number = {4}, doi = {10.3982/ECTA10528}, issn = {1468-0262}, keywords = {Consumption, fiscal stimulus payments, hand-to-mouth, liquidity}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ECTA10528} } @ARTICLE{Kaplan:Schoar, author = {Kaplan, Steven N. and Schoar, Antoinette}, title = {Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {2005}, volume = {60}, pages = {1791-1823}, number = {4}, month = {August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.12.06} } @ARTICLE{Kaplan:Stromberg, author = {Kaplan, Steven N. and Stromberg, Per}, title = {Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {2003}, volume = {70}, pages = {281-315}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.11.29} } @ARTICLE{Kara:Nei, author = {Karabarbounis, Loukas and Neiman, Brent}, title = {The Global Decline of the Labor Share}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2014}, volume = {129}, pages = {61-103}, number = {1}, abstract = {The stability of the labor share of income is a key foundation in macroeconomic models. We document, however, that the global labor share has significantly declined since the early 1980s, with the decline occurring within the large majority of countries and industries. We show that the decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of investment goods explains roughly half of the observed decline in the labor share, even when we allow for other mechanisms influencing factor shares, such as increasing profits, capital-augmenting technology growth, and the changing skill composition of the labor force. We highlight the implications of this explanation for welfare and macroeconomic dynamics. JEL Codes: E21, E22, E25.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjt032}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/129/1/61.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.03.25}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/129/1/61.abstract} } @TECHREPORT{Katz:layoffs, author = {Katz, Lawrence F.}, title = {Layoffs, Recall, and the Duration of Unemployment}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {1986}, note = {Working Paper 1825,}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.07.06} } @ARTICLE{Kaufmann:LaFontaine, author = {Kaufmann, Patrick J. and Lafontaine, Francine}, title = {Costs of Control: The Source of Economic Rents for McDonald's Franchisees}, journal = {Journal of Law and Economics}, year = {1994}, volume = {37}, pages = {417-453}, number = {2}, abstract = {The main purpose of this article is to establish empirically, using financial data, that there are both ex ante and ex post rents left downstream at McDonald's. We find that the present value of the ex ante rents is around $300K-$455K 1982 dollars. Ex post rents are, of course, even larger. We argue that the ex post rents represent an incentive mechanism that complements the use of profit-sharing rights at McDonald's. We also argue that ex ante rents arise here because franchisees' wealth constraints prevent the up-front extraction of the full present value of the ex post rents. Finally, we note that McDonald's desire for a particular type of individual to operate its franchises--namely, owner-operators whose livelihoods are tied to the success of their outlets--increases the likelihood that downstream operators face liquidity constraints. This in turn contributes to the need for McDonald's to leave ex ante rents downstream.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 The University of Chicago}, issn = {00222186}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Oct., 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press for The Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago and The University of Chicago Law School}, timestamp = {2012.09.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/725738} } @UNPUBLISHED{Keogh:Midrigan, author = {Patrick Kehoe and Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino}, title = {Debt Constraints and Employment}, note = {University of Minnesota}, month = {August}, year = {2014}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.09.21} } @ARTICLE{kehoelevineetal92, author = {Kehoe, Timothy J., David K. Levine and Paul M. Romer}, title = {On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies with Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems}, journal = {Economic Theory}, year = {1992}, volume = {2}, pages = {43-68}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Kennan:Wilson, author = {Kennan, John and Wilson, Robert}, title = {Bargaining with Private Information}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {1993}, volume = {31}, pages = {pp. 45-104}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 1993 American Economic Association}, issn = {00220515}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Mar., 1993}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2728150} } @ARTICLE{Kerins:Smith, author = {Kerins, Frank and Smith, Janet Kiholm and Smith, Richard}, title = {Opportunity Cost of Capital for Venture Capital Investors and Entrepreneurs.}, journal = {Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis}, year = {2004}, volume = {39}, pages = {385-405}, number = {2}, issn = {00221090}, keywords = {Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage; Ratings and Ratings Agencies G240, Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies G310, New Firms; Startups M130}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.04.10}, url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eoh&AN=0738153&site=ehost-live&scope=site} } @UNPUBLISHED{khanna94, author = {Khanna, Tarun}, title = {Racing Behavior: Technological Evolution in the High-End Computer Industry}, note = {Harvard Business School mimeo}, year = {1994}, organization = {Harvard Business School}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{khazammowery94, author = {Khazam, Jonathan and Mowery, David}, title = {The Commercialization of RISC: Strategies for the Creation of Dominant Designs}, journal = {Research Policy}, year = {1994}, volume = {23}, pages = {89-102}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Kilic:Wachter, author = {Mete Kilic and Jessica Wachter}, title = {Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market:A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility}, note = {University of Philadelphia}, month = {June}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.09.20} } @ARTICLE{Kimball:analytics, author = {Kimball, Miles}, title = {The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model}, journal = {Journal of Money Credit and Banking}, year = {1995}, volume = {27}, pages = {1241-1277.}, month = {November, Part 2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.24} } @UNPUBLISHED{Kimball:Shapiro, author = {Kimball, Miles S and Matthew D. Shapiro}, title = {Labor Supply: Are the Income and Substitution Effects Both Large or Both Small?}, note = {Department of Economics, University of Michigan}, month = {May}, year = {2003} } @TECHREPORT{King:Low, author = {Mervyn King and David Low}, title = {Measuring the 'World' Real Interest Rate}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19887}, month = {February}, abstract = {Over the past couple of decades, and especially since the financial crisis in 2008-09, real interest rates have collapsed. For much of the past two years they have been negative, but they have been trending down for some while. But how far have real rates fallen? This note computes a measure of the "world" real interest rate and, where possible, a measure of the implied future real rate. It also makes public our estimates of the "world" real interest rate so they can be used by other researchers.}, doi = {10.3386/w19887}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.03.30}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19887} } @ARTICLE{King:Plosser, author = {King, Robert G. and Charles I. Plosser and Sergio T. Rebelo}, title = {Production, Growth, and Business Cycles: I. The Basic Neoclassical Model}, journal = jme, year = {1988}, volume = {21}, pages = {195-232}, number = {0}, month = {March} } @TECHREPORT{Kiyotaki:Moore, author = {Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John Moore}, title = {Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2012}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {17934}, month = {March}, abstract = {The paper presents a model of a monetary economy where there are differences in liquidity across assets. Money circulates because it is more liquid than other assets, not because it has any special function. There is a spectrum of returns on assets, reflecting their differences in liquidity. The model is used, first, to investigate how aggregate activity and asset prices fluctuate with shocks to productivity and liquidity; second, to examine what role government policy might have through open market operations that change the mix of assets held by the private sector. With its emphasis on liquidity rather than sticky prices, the model harks back to an earlier interpretation of Keynes (1936), following Tobin (1969).}, doi = {10.3386/w17934}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17934} } @TECHREPORT{Kluh:Stella, author = {Ulrich Kl\"{u}h and Peter Stella}, title = {Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance: An Econometric Evaluation}, institution = {International Monetary Fund}, year = {2002}, note = {Working Paper 08--176}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.12.07} } @BOOKLET{Kluh2002, title = {Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance: An Econometric Evaluation}, author = {Ulrich Kl\"{u}h and Peter Stella}, howpublished = {International Monetary Fund Working Paper 08-176}, year = {2002}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.05.08} } @ARTICLE{Klein:Murphy, author = {Klein, Benjamin and Murphy, Kevin M.}, title = {Vertical Restraints as Contract Enforcement Mechanisms}, journal = {Journal of Law and Economics}, year = {1988}, volume = {31}, pages = {265-297}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright � 1988 The University of Chicago}, issn = {00222186}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Oct., 1988}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press for The Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago and The University of Chicago Law School}, timestamp = {2012.09.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/725332} } @INCOLLECTION{KlenowRodriguez2005, author = {Peter J. Klenow and Andres Rodriguez-Clare}, title = {Extenalities and Growth}, booktitle = {Handbook of Economic Growth}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2005}, editor = {Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf}, address = {Amsterdam}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Klenow:Willis, author = {Klenow, Peter, and Willis, Jonathan L.}, title = {Sticky Information and Sticky Prices}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2007}, volume = {54}, pages = {79-99}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{KnackKeefer95, author = {Stephen Knack and Philip Keefer}, title = {Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures}, journal = {Economics and Politics}, year = {1995}, volume = {7}, pages = {207-227}, month = {November}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{NK:lowr, author = {Narayana Kocherlakota}, title = {Low Real Interest Rates}, note = {22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference; Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, New York}, month = {April}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Kocherlakota:land, author = {Kocherlakota, Narayana}, title = {Two Models of Land Overvaluation and Their Implications}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis}, month = {October}, year = {2010}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.01.10} } @UNPUBLISHED{N:incomplete, author = {Narayana R. Kocherlakota}, title = {Impact of a Land Price Fall When Labor Markets are Incomplete}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis}, month = {April}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.03.24} } @ARTICLE{Koenker:Hallock, author = {Koenker, Roger and Kevin F. Hallock}, title = {Quantile Regression}, journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives}, year = {2001}, volume = {15}, pages = {143-156}, number = {4}, month = {Autumn}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2010.01.30} } @ARTICLE{Kolenikov:2010, author = {Kolenikov, Stanislav}, title = {Resampling variance estimation for complex survey data}, journal = {Stata Journal}, year = {2010}, volume = {10}, pages = {165--199}, number = {2}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.11.29} } @INCOLLECTION{koopmans65, author = {Koopmans, T. C.}, title = {On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth}, booktitle = {The Econometric Approach to Development Planning}, publisher = {North Holland}, year = {1965}, address = {Amsterdam}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Korinek:Simsek, author = {Anton Korinek and Alp Simsek}, title = {Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19970}, month = {March}, abstract = {We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to fall to induce unconstrained agents to pick up the decline in aggregate demand. However, if the fall in the interest rate is limited by the zero lower bound, aggregate demand is insufficient and the economy enters a liquidity trap. In such an environment, agents' ex-ante leverage and insurance decisions are associated with aggregate demand externalities. The competitive equilibrium allocation is constrained inefficient. Welfare can be improved by ex-ante macroprudential policies such as debt limits and mandatory insurance requirements. The size of the required intervention depends on the differences in marginal propensity to consume between borrowers and lenders during the deleveraging episode. In our model, contractionary monetary policy is inferior to macroprudential policy in addressing excessive leverage, and it can even have the unintended consequence of increasing leverage.}, doi = {10.3386/w19970}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19970} } @BOOK{Kornai92, title = {The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {1992}, author = {Janos Kornai}, address = {Princeton}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{kortum94, author = {Kortum, Samuel}, title = {A Model of Research, Patenting and Productivity Growth}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 4646}, year = {1994}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{kortum93, author = {Kortum, Samuel}, title = {Equilibrium R\&D and the Patent-R\&D Ratio: U.S. Evidence}, journal = {American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings}, year = {1993}, volume = {83}, pages = {450-457}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{kortum92, author = {Kortum, Samuel}, title = {Inventions, R\&D and Industry Growth}, note = {Boston University mimeo}, month = {June}, year = {1992}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Boston University}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{KortumLerner97, author = {Samuel Kortum and Joshua Lerner}, title = {Stronger Protection or Technological Revolution: What is Behind the Recent Surge in Patenting?}, note = {Carnegie-Rochester conference mimeo}, year = {1997}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Kothari:Eksten, author = {Siddharth Kothari and Itay Saporta Eksten and Edison Yu}, title = {The (Un)importance of Mobility in the Great Recession}, note = {Department of Economics, Stanford University}, month = {May}, year = {2011}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.07.26} } @TECHREPORT{Koz:Veld, author = {Julian Kozlowski and Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran}, title = {The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2015}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {21719}, month = {November}, abstract = {The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. Since changes in beliefs endure long after the event itself has passed and through its effects on prices and choices, it produces long-lasting effects on borrowing, investment, employment and output. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. When they observe a new shock, they re-estimate the distribution from which it was drawn. Even transitory shocks have persistent effects because, once observed, they stay forever in the agents’ data set. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.}, doi = {10.3386/w21719}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.01.05}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21719} } @UNPUBLISHED{KremerLeinoMiguelZwane2009, author = {Michael Kremer and Jessica Leino and Edward Miguel and Alix Peterson Zwane}, title = {Spring Cleaning: Rural Water Impacts, Valuation and Property Rights Institutions}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 15280}, month = {August}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Krish:Jorg, author = {Krishnamurthy, Arvind and Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette}, title = {The Impact of Treasury Supply on Financial Sector Lending and Stability}, journal = {Journal of Financial Economics}, year = {2015}, volume = {118}, pages = {571--600}, number = {3}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Elsevier}, timestamp = {2016.11.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{KrishVJ:gooddebt, author = {Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen}, title = {Short-term Debt and Financial Crises: What We Can Learn from U.S. Treasury Supply}, note = {Kellogg School, Northwestern University}, month = {May}, year = {2013}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.11.20} } @ARTICLE{KrishVJ:JPE, author = {Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen}, title = {The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2013}, note = {Forthcoming}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.11.20} } @ARTICLE{Krish:Viss, author = {Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen}, title = {The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2011}, number = {2}, note = {Forthcoming}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.01.30} } @ARTICLE{Kroft:Lange, author = {Kory Kroft and Fabian Lange and Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Lawrence F. Katz}, title = {Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation}, journal = {Journal of Labor}, year = {2016}, note = {Forthcoming}, abstract = {We explore the extent to which composition, duration dependence, and labor force non-participation can account for the sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the observed increase in LTU. Next, using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2002-2007, we calibrate a matching model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E), unemployment (U), and non-participation (N). We model the job-finding rates for the unemployed and non-participants, and we use observed vacancy rates and the transition rates from E-to-U, E-to-N, N-to-U, and U-to-N as the exogenous "forcing variables'' of the model. The calibrated model can account for almost all of the increase in the incidence of LTU and much of the observed outward shift in the Beveridge curve between 2008 and 2013. Both negative duration dependence in the job-finding rate for the unemployed and transitions to and from non-participation contribute significantly to the ability of the model to match the data after 2008.}, doi = {10.3386/w20273}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.08.16}, type = {Working Paper}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20273} } @TECHREPORT{Kroft:Lange, author = {Kory Kroft and Fabian Lange and Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Lawrence F. Katz}, title = {Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Non-Participation}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {20273}, month = {July}, abstract = {We explore the extent to which composition, duration dependence, and labor force non-participation can account for the sharp increase in the incidence of long-term unemployment (LTU) during the Great Recession. We first show that compositional shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the observed increase in LTU. Next, using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2002-2007, we calibrate a matching model that allows for duration dependence in the exit rate from unemployment and for transitions between employment (E), unemployment (U), and non-participation (N). We model the job-finding rates for the unemployed and non-participants, and we use observed vacancy rates and the transition rates from E-to-U, E-to-N, N-to-U, and U-to-N as the exogenous "forcing variables'' of the model. The calibrated model can account for almost all of the increase in the incidence of LTU and much of the observed outward shift in the Beveridge curve between 2008 and 2013. Both negative duration dependence in the job-finding rate for the unemployed and transitions to and from non-participation contribute significantly to the ability of the model to match the data after 2008.}, doi = {10.3386/w20273}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.12.12}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w20273} } @ARTICLE{Krueger:1991, author = {Krueger, Alan B.}, title = {Ownership, Agency, and Wages: An Examination of Franchising in the Fast Food Industry}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1991}, volume = {106}, pages = {75-101}, number = {1}, abstract = {This paper estimates the difference in compensation between company-owned and franchisee-owned fast food restaurants. The contrast is of interest because contractual arrangements give managers of company-owned outlets less of an incentive to monitor and supervise employees. Estimates based on two data sets suggest that employee compensation is slightly greater at company-owned outlets than at franchisee-owned outlets. The earnings gap is 9 percent for assistant and shift managers and 2 percent for full-time crew workers. Furthermore, the tenure-earnings profile is steeper at company-owned restaurants. These findings suggest that monitoring difficulties influence the timing and generosity of compensation.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1991 Oxford University Press}, issn = {00335533}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Feb., 1991}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, timestamp = {2012.09.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937907} } @ARTICLE{Krueger:Cramer, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Judd Cramer and David Cho}, title = {Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2014}, month = {Spring}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.05.21} } @ARTICLE{Krueger:Mueller2016, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {A Contribution to the Empirics of Reservation Wages}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy}, year = {2016}, volume = {8}, pages = {142-179}, number = {1}, month = {February} } @TECHREPORT{Krueger:Mueller2014, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {A Contribution to the Empirics of Reservation Wages}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19870}, month = {January}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.05.19}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19870} } @ARTICLE{Krueger:Mueller2012, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {{Time Use, Emotional Well-Being, and Unemployment: Evidence from Longitudinal Data}}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2012}, volume = {102}, pages = {594-99}, number = {3}, month = {May} } @UNPUBLISHED{Krueger:Mueller2011, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data}, note = {Princeton University}, month = {January}, year = {2011}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.05.16} } @ARTICLE{Krueger:MuellerBPEA, author = {Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2011}, pages = {1-70}, number = {1}, month = {Spring}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.05.16} } @ARTICLE{KPPV2010, author = {Dirk Krueger and Fabrizio Perri and Luigi Pistaferri and Giovanni L. Violante}, title = {Cross Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists}, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics}, year = {2010}, volume = {13}, pages = {1-14}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/10-0.html} } @ARTICLE{Krugman:ZLB, author = {Krugman, Paul R.}, title = {It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {1998}, pages = {137-205}, number = {2}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.10.28} } @BOOK{KrugmanPP, title = {Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in the Age of Diminished Expectations}, publisher = {W.W. Norton \& Company}, year = {1994}, author = {Paul R. Krugman}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{krugman87, author = {Krugman, Paul R.}, title = {The Narrow Moving Band, the Dutch Disease and the Competitive Consequences of Mrs. Thatcher: Notes on Trade in the Presence of Dynamic Scale Economies}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {1987}, volume = {27}, pages = {41-55}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Krugman79irs, author = {Krugman, Paul R.}, title = {Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade}, journal = {Journal of International Economics}, year = {1979}, volume = {9}, pages = {469-479}, number = {4}, month = {November}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v9y1979i4p469-479.html} } @UNPUBLISHED{Krusell:Mukoyama, author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l {\c{S}}ahin}, title = {Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle}, month = {November}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.03.14} } @ARTICLE{Krusell:Muko, author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin}, title = {A three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium }, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory }, year = {2011}, volume = {146}, pages = {1107 - 1133}, number = {3}, note = {Incompleteness and Uncertainty in Economics }, abstract = {We develop a simple model featuring search frictions and a nondegenerate labor supply decision along the extensive margin. The model is a standard version of the neoclassical growth model with indivisible labor and idiosyncratic productivity shocks and frictions characterized by employment loss and employment opportunity arrival shocks. We argue that it is able to account for the key features of observed labor market flows for reasonable parameter values. Persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks play a key role in allowing the model to match the persistence of the employment and out of the labor force states found in individual labor market histories. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2010.09.003}, issn = {0022-0531}, keywords = {Labor supply}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.06.18}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053110001420} } @ARTICLE{Krusell:Smith, author = {Krusell, Per and Smith, Anthony A., Jr.}, title = {Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1998}, volume = {106}, pages = {867-896}, number = {5}, abstract = {How do movements in the distribution of income and wealth affect the macroeconomy? We analyze this question using a calibrated version of the stochastic growth model with partially uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and movements in aggregate productivity. Our main finding is that, in the stationary stochastic equilibrium, the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates can be almost perfectly described using only the mean of the wealth distribution. This result is robust to substantial changes in both parameter values and model specification. Our benchmark model, whose only difference from the representative-agent framework is the existence of uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, displays far less cross-sectional dispersion and skewness in wealth than U.S. data. However, an extension that relies on a small amount of heterogeneity in thrift does succeed in replicating the key features of the wealth data. Furthermore, this extension features aggregate time series that depart significantly from permanent income behavior.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1998 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Oct., 1998}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2010.11.26}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2991488} } @ARTICLE{Kudlyak:usercost, author = {Marianna Kudlyak}, title = {The Cyclicality of the User Cost of Labor }, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics }, year = {2014}, volume = {68}, pages = {53 - 67}, abstract = {Abstract The user cost of labor is the expected difference between the present discounted value of wages paid to a worker hired in the current period and that paid to a worker hired in the next period. Analogous to the price of any long-term asset, the user cost, not wage, is the relevant price for a firm that is considering adding a worker. I construct its counterpart in the data and estimate that it is substantially more procyclical than average wages or wages of newly hired workers. I demonstrate an application of the finding using the textbook search and matching model. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.007}, issn = {0304-3932}, keywords = {User cost of labor}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.08.17}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393214001135} } @UNPUBLISHED{Kuehn:Pet, author = {Lars-Alexander Kuehn and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang}, title = {An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search}, note = {Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business}, month = {January}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.04.16} } @ARTICLE{kydland84, author = {Kydland, Finn E.}, title = {Labor Force Heterogeneity and the Business Cycle}, journal = {Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy}, year = {1984}, volume = {21}, pages = {173-208}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{kydlandprescott91, author = {Kydland, Finn E. and Edward C. Prescott}, title = {Hours and Employment Variation in Business Cycle Theory}, journal = {Economic Theory}, year = {1991}, volume = {1}, pages = {63-81}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Kydland:Prescott, author = {Kydland, Finn E. and Edward C. Prescott}, title = {Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations}, journal = ema, year = {1982}, volume = {50}, pages = {1345-1370}, number = {6}, month = {November} } @UNPUBLISHED{Lopez:Rabanal, author = {L\'{o}pez-Salido, J. David and Pau Rabanal}, title = {Government Spending and Consumption-Hours Preferences}, note = {Working Paper 02/2006, la Caixa, Barcelona}, month = {November}, year = {2006}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @UNPUBLISHED{Lacko:Pappalardo, author = {Lacko, James and Janis Pappalardo}, title = {Improving Consumer Mortgage Disclosures}, note = {Federal Trade Commission. ftc.gov/os/2007/06/ P025505Mortgage DisclosureReport.pdf}, year = {2007}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.05.08} } @ARTICLE{LaCour:Little, author = {LaCour-Little, Michael}, title = {Discrimination in Mortgage Lending: A Critical Review of the lIterature}, journal = {Journal of Real Estate Literature}, year = {1999}, volume = {7}, pages = {15-49}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @BOOK{Laffont:Martimort, title = {The Theory of Incentives: The Principal-Agent Model}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {2002}, author = {Jean-Jacques Laffont and David Martimort}, address = {Princeton, NJ}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.09.22} } @UNPUBLISHED{Landvoigt:intermediation, author = {Tim Landvoigt}, title = {Financial Intermediation, Credit Risk, and Credit Supply during the Housing Boom}, note = {University of Texas, Austin, McCombs School of Business}, month = {July}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.04.13} } @ARTICLE{Lane:Milesi, author = {Lane, Philip R and Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria}, title = {The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970--2004}, journal = {Journal of international Economics}, year = {2007}, volume = {73}, pages = {223--250}, number = {2}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Elsevier}, timestamp = {2016.10.20} } @ARTICLE{Lang:Majumdar, author = {Kevin Lang and Sumon Majumdar}, title = {The Pricing of Job Characteristics When Markets Do Not Clear: Theory and Implications}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {2004}, volume = {45}, pages = {1111-1128}, number = {4} } @ARTICLE{LaPortaSchleifer2008, author = {La Porta, Rafael and Shleifer, Andrei}, title = {{The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development}}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2008}, volume = {2}, pages = {275-363}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Laubach:Williams, author = {Laubach, Thomas and Williams, John C}, title = {Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest}, journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics}, year = {2003}, volume = {85}, pages = {1063--1070}, number = {4}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {MIT Press}, timestamp = {2016.11.22} } @UNPUBLISHED{Lawver2011, author = {Daniel Lawver}, title = {Measuring Quality Increases in the Medical Sector}, note = {A.S.U. manuscript}, year = {2011}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lazear2000, author = {Lazear, Edward P.}, title = {{Performance Pay and Productivity}}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2000}, volume = {90}, pages = {1346-1361}, number = {5}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {JSTOR}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{lebergott64, title = {Manpower in Economic Growth: The American Record Since 1800: Economics Handbook Series}, publisher = {McGraw-Hill}, year = {1964}, author = {Lebergott, Stanley}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{LeeMiller2001, author = {Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller}, title = {An Approach to Forecasting Health Expenditures, with Application to the U.S. Medicare System}, note = {U.C. Berkeley mimeo}, month = {January}, year = {2001}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Lee80, author = {Ronald D. Lee}, title = {A Historical Perspective on Economic Aspects of the Population Explosion: The Case of Preindustrial England}, booktitle = {Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1980}, editor = {Richard A. Easterlin}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lee88, author = {Ronald D. Lee}, title = {Induced Population Growth and Induced Technological Progress: Their Interaction in the Accelerating Stage}, journal = {Mathematical Population Studies}, year = {1988}, volume = {1}, pages = {265-288}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Leone:CBlosses, author = {Alfredo Leone}, title = {Institutional and Operational Aspects of Central Bank Losses}, booktitle = {Frameworks for Monetary Stability: Policy Issues and Country Experiences}, publisher = {International Monetary Fund}, year = {1994}, editor = {Carlo Cottarelli and Tom�s J. T. Bali�o}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.05.08} } @BOOK{Leontief53, title = {Studies in the Structure of the American Economy}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {1953}, author = {Wassily {Leontief et al.}}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{lerner91, author = {Lerner, Joshua}, title = {The Empirical Exploration of a Technology Race: The Winchester Disk Drive Industry, 1972-1988}, note = {Harvard Business School mimeo}, year = {1991}, organization = {Harvard Business School}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lettau:Ludvigson, author = {Lettau, Martin and Ludvigson, Sydney}, title = {Consumption, aggregate wealth, and expected stock returns}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {2001}, volume = {56}, pages = {815--849}, number = {3}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, timestamp = {2014.09.20} } @ARTICLE{levinklevoricketal87, author = {Levin, Richard, A. Klevorick, Richard Nelson and Sidney Winter}, title = {Appropriating the Returns from Industrial Research and Development}, year = {1987}, pages = {783-820}, address = {Washington D.C.}, booktitle = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Microeconomics 1987}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The Brookings Institution}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lichtenberg2005, author = {Frank Lichtenberg}, title = {The Impact of New Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data from 52 Countries, 1982--2001}, journal = {International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics}, year = {2005}, volume = {5}, pages = {47-73}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ijhcfe/v5y2005i1p47-73.html} } @INCOLLECTION{Lichtenberg2001, author = {Frank R. Lichtenberg}, title = {The effects of Medicare on health care utilization and outcomes}, booktitle = {Frontiers in Health Policy Research, Volume 5}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {forthcoming}, editor = {Alan Garber}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lilien:shifts, author = {David M. Lilien}, title = {Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1982}, volume = {90}, pages = {777-793}, number = {4}, abstract = {A substantial fraction of cyclical unemployment is better characterized as fluctuations of the "frictional" or "natural" rate than as deviations from some relatively stable natural rate. Shifts of employment demand between sectors of the economy necessitate continuous labor reallocation. Since it takes time for workers to find new jobs, some unemployment is unavoidable. This paper presents evidence that most of the unemployment fluctuations of the seventies (unlike those in the sixties) were induced by unusual structural shifts within the U.S. economy. Simple time-series models of layoffs and unemployment are constructed that include a measure of structural shifts within the labor market. These models are estimated and a derived natural rate series is constructed.}, issn = {00223808, 1537534X}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831352} } @ARTICLE{lindbeck83, author = {Lindbeck, Assar}, title = {The Recent Slowdown of Productivity Growth}, journal = {Economic Journal}, year = {1983}, volume = {93}, pages = {13-34}, month = {March}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{LipscombBergh1905, title = {The Writings of Thomas Jefferson}, publisher = {Thomas Jefferson Memorial Association}, year = {1905}, author = {Andrew A. Lipscomb and Albert Ellery Bergh}, address = {Washington}, note = {Volume 13, 333-35, Online at http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/a1\_8\_8s12.html}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Einav:Levin, author = {Liran Einav, Jonathan Levin}, title = {Empirical Industrial Organization: A Progress Report}, journal = {The Journal of Economic Perspectives}, year = {2010}, volume = {24}, pages = {145-162}, number = {2}, issn = {08953309}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2016.11.18}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25703505} } @ARTICLE{Litvak:Venture, author = {Litvak, Kate}, title = {Venture Capital Limited Partnership Agreements: Understanding Compensation Arrangements}, journal = {The University of Chicago Law Review}, year = {2009}, volume = {76}, pages = {161-218}, number = {1}, abstract = {This Article uses a hand-collected dataset of venture capital partnership agreements to study venture capitalist (VC) compensation. Several new findings emerge. First, VC compensation consists of three elements, not two (management fee and carried interest), as commonly believed. The third element is the value-of-distribution rules that specify when during the fund's life VCs receive distributions. These rules often generate an interest-free loan to VCs from limited partners. A shift from the most popular distribution rule to the second-most popular rule can affect VC compensation as much as or more than common variations in management fee (from 2 percent to 2.5 percent of committed capital) or carried interest (from 20 percent to 25 percent of fund profit). Second, VC compensation is often more complex and manipulable than it could have been. However, more complex management-fee provisions predict lower total compensation; thus, complexity is not used to camouflage high pay. Third, common proxies for VC quality predict higher levels of the more transparent forms of VC compensation (carried interest and management fee) but do not predict the levels of opaque compensation (interest-free loan, as determined by distribution rules). Fourth, long-term VC performance predicts fund size (which in turn predicts VC pay, controlling for fund size), but recent performance does not predict changes in fund size. Finally, VC compensation is less performance-based than commonly believed: for vintage years between 1986 and 1997 (most recent years for fully liquidated funds), about half of total VC compensation comes from the nonrisky management fee. On average, a 1 percent increase in fund returns predicts a 0.47 percent increase in total VC compensation; this pay-performance elasticity is similar to that of public company CEOs during the same years.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2009 The University of Chicago Law Review}, issn = {00419494}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Winter, 2009}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Law Review}, timestamp = {2012.04.10}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27654700} } @UNPUBLISHED{Litvak:comp, author = {Litvak, Kate}, title = {Venture Capital Limited Partnership Agreements: Understanding Compensation Arrangements}, note = {University of Texas Law School}, month = {May}, year = {2004}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.11.30} } @BOOK{LiviBacci97, title = {A Concise History of World Population}, publisher = {Blackwell Publishers}, year = {1997}, author = {Massimo Livi-Bacci}, address = {Malden, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Ljundqvist:Richardson, author = {Alexander Ljungqvist and Matthew Richardson}, title = {The cash flow, return and risk characteristics of private equity}, note = {NBER working paper 9454}, month = {January}, year = {2003}, abstract = {Using a unique dataset of private equity funds over the last two decades, this paper analyzes the cash flow, return, and risk characteristics of private equity. We document the draw down and capital return schedules for the typical private equity fund, and show that it takes several years for capital to be invested, and over ten years for capital to be returned to generate excess returns. We provide several determining factors for these schedules, including existing investment opportunities and competition amongst private equity funds. In terms of performance, we document that private equity generates excess returns on the order of five plus percent per annum relative to the aggregate public equity market. One interpretation of this magnitude is that it represents compensation for holding a 10-year illiquid investment.}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, number = {9454}, owner = {Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2012.04.10}, type = {Working Paper}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w9454} } @UNPUBLISHED{Ljung:Sargent, author = {Lars Ljungqvist and Thomas J. Sargent}, title = {The Fundamental Surplus in Matching Models}, note = {Department of Economics, New York University}, month = {May}, year = {2014}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.06.29} } @ARTICLE{Lo:MacKinlay, author = {Lo, Andrew W. and MacKinlay, A. Craig}, title = {An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading}, journal = {Journal of Econometrics}, year = {1990}, volume = {45}, pages = {181-211}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.12.07} } @ARTICLE{Loisel:policy, author = {Loisel, Olivier}, title = {Bubble-free policy feedback rules}, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, year = {2009}, volume = {144}, pages = {1521-1559}, number = {4}, abstract = {We consider a broad class of linear dynamic stochastic rational-expectations models made of a finite number N of structural equations for N+1 endogenous variables and to be closed by one policy feedback rule. We design, for any model of this class and any stationary VARMA solution of that model, a "bubble-free" policy feedback rule ensuring that this solution is not only the unique stationary solution of the closed model, but also its unique solution. We apply these results to locally linearisable models of the monetary transmission mechanism and obtain interest-rate rules that not only ensure the local determinacy of the targeted equilibrium in the neighbourhood of the steady state considered, but also prevent the economy from gradually leaving this neighbourhood.}, keywords = { Linear dynamic rational-expectations models Policy feedback rules Rational bubbles Saddle-path property Interest-rate rules Local determinacy Global determinacy}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.12.14}, url = {http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:144:y:2009:i:4:p:1521-1559} } @UNPUBLISHED{Long:Nickels, author = {Long, {Austin M, III} and Craig J. Nickels}, title = {A Private Investment Benchmark}, note = {The University of Texas System}, month = {February}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.04.10}, url = {\verb+alignmentcapital.com/pdfs/research/icm_aimr_benchmark_1996.pdf+} } @ARTICLE{LongPlosser83, author = {John B. Long and Charles I. Plosser}, title = {Real Business Cycles}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1983}, volume = {91}, pages = {39-69}, number = {1}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lotka1926, author = {A.J. Lotka}, title = {The Frequency Distribution of Scientific Productivity}, journal = {Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences}, year = {1926}, volume = {16}, pages = {317-323}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Low:Meghir:2010, author = {Hamish Low and Costas Meghir and Luigi Pistaferri}, title = {Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2010}, volume = {100}, pages = {1432-67}, number = {4} } @UNPUBLISHED{Low:Meghir, author = {Low, Hamish and Costas Meghir and Luigi Pistaferri}, title = {Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle}, note = {Institute for Fiscal Studies, London}, month = {September}, year = {2008}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.19} } @ARTICLE{Lucas:risk, author = {Lucas, Deborah}, title = {Asset Pricing with Undiversifiable Risk and Short Sales Constraints: Deepening the Equity Premium Puzzle}, journal = jme, year = {1994}, volume = {34}, pages = {325-342}, number = {3} } @ARTICLE{Lucas2009, author = {Robert E. Lucas}, title = {Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2009}, volume = {1}, pages = {1-25}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Lucas98, author = {Robert E. Lucas}, title = {The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future}, note = {University of Chicago mimeo}, year = {1998}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{lucas88, author = {Lucas, Robert E.}, title = {On the Mechanics of Economic Development}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {1988}, volume = {22}, pages = {3-42}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{lucas87, title = {Models of Business Cycles}, publisher = {Basil Blackwell}, year = {1987}, author = {Lucas, Robert E.}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Lucas:trees, author = {Lucas, Robert E.}, title = {Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1978}, volume = {46}, pages = {1429-1445}, number = {6}, abstract = {This paper is a theoretical examination of the stochastic behavior of equilibrium asset prices in a one-good, pure exchange economy with identical consumers. A general method of constructing equilibrium prices is developed and applied to a series of examples.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1978 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Nov., 1978}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2011.03.26}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1913837} } @ARTICLE{Lucas:Rapping, author = {Lucas, Robert E. and Leonard A. Rapping}, title = {Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation}, journal = jpe, year = {1969}, volume = {77}, pages = {721-754}, number = {5}, month = {September-October} } @TECHREPORT{Ludvigson:Ma, author = {Sydney C. Ludvigson and Sai Ma and Serena Ng}, title = {Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2015}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {21803}, month = {December}, abstract = {Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycle fluctuations or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? Answer: sharply higher uncertainty about real economic activity in recessions is fully an endogenous response to other shocks that cause business cycle fluctuations, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of the fluctuations. Financial market uncertainty has quantitatively large negative consequences for several measures of real activity including employment, production, and orders. Such are the main conclusions drawn from estimation of three-variable structural vector autoregressions. To establish causal effects, we use information contained in external instruments that we construct in a novel way to be valid under credible interpretations of the structural shocks.}, doi = {10.3386/w21803}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.01.05}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21803} } @ARTICLE{Stijn:Hanno, author = {Lustig, Hanno and Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn and Verdelhan, Adrien}, title = {The Wealth-Consumption Ratio}, journal = {Review of Asset Pricing Studies}, year = {2013}, volume = {3}, pages = {38-94}, number = {1}, abstract = {We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to aggregate consumption. We find that U.S. households have a surprising amount of total wealth, most of it human wealth. This wealth is much less risky than stock market wealth. Events in long-term bond markets, not stock markets, drive most total wealth fluctuations. The wealth effect on consumption is small and varies over time with real interest rates. (JEL E21, G10, G12)}, doi = {10.1093/rapstu/rat002}, eprint = {http://raps.oxfordjournals.org/content/3/1/38.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://raps.oxfordjournals.org/content/3/1/38.abstract} } @ARTICLE{Lustig:Verdelhan, author = {Hanno Lustig and Adrien Verdelhan}, title = {Business Cycle Variation in the Risk-Return Trade-off}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2012}, volume = {59}, pages = {S35--S49}, month = {October}, abstract = {In the United States and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the expected returns on stocks, adjusted for volatility, are much higher in recessions than in expansions. We consider feasible trading strategies that buy or sell shortly after business cycle turning points that are identifiable in real time and involve holding periods of up to 1 year. The observed business cycle changes in expected returns are not spuriously driven by changes in expected near-term dividend growth. Our findings imply that value-maximizing managers face much higher risk-adjusted costs of capital in their investment decisions during recessions than expansions. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.11.003}, issn = {0304-3932}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.09.20}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393212001511} } @ARTICLE{Mace:insurance, author = {Mace, Barbara J.}, title = {Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty}, journal = jpe, year = {1991}, volume = {99}, pages = {928-956}, number = {5}, month = {October} } @ARTICLE{MacLeod:Malcomson, author = {MacLeod, W. Bentley and James M. Malcomson}, title = {Investments, Holdup, and the Form of Market Contracts}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1993}, volume = {83}, pages = {811-837}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.03.31} } @UNPUBLISHED{Maddison2008, author = {Angus Maddison}, title = {Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1--2006 AD}, note = {Downloaded on December 4, 2008 from http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/}, year = {2008}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/} } @BOOK{Maddison2001, title = {The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective}, publisher = {Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development}, year = {2001}, author = {Maddison, Angus}, address = {Paris}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{maddison95, title = {Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992}, publisher = {Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development}, year = {1995}, author = {Maddison, Angus}, address = {Paris}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{maddison91, title = {Dynamic Forces in Capitalist Development}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {1991}, author = {Maddison, Angus}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{maddison87, author = {Maddison, Angus}, title = {Growth and the Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of a Quantitative Assessment}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {1987}, volume = {50}, pages = {649-698}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{maddison82, title = {Phases of Capitalist Development}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {1982}, author = {Maddison, Angus}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{maddison79, author = {Maddison, Angus}, title = {Per Capita Output in the Long Run}, journal = {Kyklos}, year = {1979}, volume = {32}, pages = {412-419}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{MadLef, author = {Madrian, Brigitte C. and Lefgren, Lars John}, title = {An approach to longitudinally matching Current Population Survey (CPS) respondents}, journal = {Journal of Economic and Social Measurement}, year = {2000}, volume = {26}, pages = {31--62}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.29} } @ARTICLE{Maestas:Mullen, author = {Maestas, Nicole and Mullen, Kathleen J. and Strand, Alexander}, title = {Does Disability Insurance Receipt Discourage Work? Using Examiner Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of SSDI Receipt}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2013}, volume = {103}, pages = {1797-1829}, number = {5}, doi = {10.1257/aer.103.5.1797}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.02.18}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.5.1797} } @TECHREPORT{MalaniPhilipson2011, author = {Anup Malani and Tomas J. Philipson}, title = {Can Medical Progress be Sustained? Implications of the Link Between Development and Output Markets}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2011}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {17011}, month = {May}, abstract = {Improvements in health have been a major contributor to gains in overall economic welfare. In this paper, we argue that previous economic research on R&D has overlooked an important difference between medical R&D and R&D in other sectors. The health care sector exhibits a unique linkage between product development and output markets. Participants in clinical trials for new medical products are also potential consumers of existing approved medical products. This overlap between input supply and output demand has non-standard effects on innovative returns over time and across geography. First, medical R&D has a self-limiting effect. Contemporary innovation discourages trial participation and slows down development necessary for future innovation. Thus, medical R&D suffers increasing costs over time, driven by improvements in the standard of care. Second, policies that affect output markets, such as universal coverage and price controls, affect the returns to innovation, not only by altering the firm’s variable profits, but also by increasing the length and cost of development. Third, the amount of medical R&D in a location is driven, not only by the local relative R&D talent, but also by consumer demographics and output market policies in that location. We provide evidence of the input-output linkage for the break-through HIV therapies introduced in 1996. We document the substantial drop in trial recruitment induced by these new innovations and argue that this has slowed down development and lowered returns to subsequent HIV-related innovations.}, owner = {Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17011} } @STANDARD{Maliar:Maliar, title = {Numerical Methods for Large-Scale Dynamic Economic Models}, author = {Lilia Maliar and Serguei Maliar}, year = {2015}, note = {in Schmedders and Judd, eds., \emph{Handbook of Computational Economics}, vol. 3, Elsevier}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.04.13} } @UNPUBLISHED{Malin:JMP, author = {Malin, Benjamin}, title = {Lower-Frequency Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Living Standards and Leisure}, note = {Department of Economics, Stanford University}, month = {February}, year = {2006} } @ARTICLE{Malkiel:efficient, author = {Burton G. Malkiel}, title = {The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics}, journal = {The Journal of Economic Perspectives}, year = {2003}, volume = {17}, pages = {59-82}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright © 2003 American Economic Association}, issn = {08953309}, jstor_articletype = {primary_article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Winter, 2003}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2010.07.05}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3216840} } @ARTICLE{Malmendier:Nagel, author = {Malmendier, Ulrike and Nagel, Stefan}, title = {Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?*}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2011}, volume = {126}, pages = {373-416}, number = {1}, abstract = {We investigate whether individual experiences of macroeconomic shocks affect financial risk taking, as often suggested for the generation that experienced the Great Depression. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances from 1960 to 2007, we find that individuals who have experienced low stock market returns throughout their lives so far report lower willingness to take financial risk, are less likely to participate in the stock market, invest a lower fraction of their liquid assets in stocks if they participate, and are more pessimistic about future stock returns. Those who have experienced low bond returns are less likely to own bonds. Results are estimated controlling for age, year effects, and household characteristics. More recent return experiences have stronger effects, particularly on younger people.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjq004}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/126/1/373.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2014.09.29}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/126/1/373.abstract} } @BOOK{Malthus1798, title = {An Essay on the Principle of Population}, publisher = {J. Johnson}, year = {1798}, author = {Thomas R. Malthus}, address = {London}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{mansfield85b, author = {Mansfield, Edwin}, title = {Public Policy toward Industrial Innovation: An International Study of Direct Incentives for Research and Development}, booktitle = {The Uneasy Alliance: Managing the Productivity-Technology Dilemma}, publisher = {Harvard Business School}, year = {1985}, editor = {R. Hayes et al.}, address = {Boston}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{mansfield86, author = {Mansfield, Edwin}, title = {The R\&D Tax Credit and Other Technology Policy Issues}, journal = {American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings}, year = {1986}, volume = {76}, pages = {190-194}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{mansfield85a, author = {Mansfield, Edwin}, title = {How Rapidly Does New Industrial Technology Leak Out?}, journal = {Journal of Industrial Economics}, year = {1985}, volume = {34}, pages = {217-23}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{mansfieldschwartzetal81, author = {Mansfield, Edwin and Mark Schwartz and Samuel Wagner}, title = {Imitation Costs and Patents: An Empirical Study}, journal = {Economic Journal}, year = {1981}, volume = {91}, pages = {907-918}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{ManuelliSeshadri2005, author = {Rodolfo Manuelli and Ananth Seshadri}, title = {Human Capital and the Wealth of Nations}, note = {University of Wisconsin working paper}, month = {March}, year = {2005}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{MarimonQuadrini2006, author = {Ramon Marimon and Vincenzo Quadrini}, title = {Competition, Innovation and Growth with Limited Commitment}, note = {U.S.C. working paper}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Martin:Ventura, author = {Martin, Alberto and Jaume Ventura}, title = {Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis}, note = {NBER Working Paper 16399}, month = {September}, year = {2010}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, number = {Working Paper 16399}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.01.10} } @ARTICLE{McAfee:mechanisms, author = {R. Preston McAfee and John McMillan}, title = {Search Mechanisms}, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, year = {1988}, volume = {44}, pages = {99-123}, number = {1}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/0022-0531(88)90098-1}, issn = {0022-0531}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.02.12}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJ3-4CYGG3H-1PY/2/4b3d69698a35cc019004ae18a4cbd08d} } @ARTICLE{McAfee:McMillan, author = {R. Preston McAfee and McMillan, John}, title = {Auctions and Bidding}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {1987}, volume = {25}, pages = {699-738}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright © 1987 American Economic Association}, issn = {00220515}, jstor_articletype = {primary_article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 1987}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2010.02.12}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2726107} } @ARTICLE{McAfee:Schwartz, author = {R. Preston McAfee and Schwartz, Marius}, title = {Opportunism in Multilateral Vertical Contracting: Nondiscrimination, Exclusivity, and Uniformity}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1994}, volume = {84}, pages = {210-230}, number = {1}, abstract = {An input supplier selling to competing downstream firms would benefit from publicly committing at the outset to all contracts. Efficient commitment, however, would require complete contracts. We study instead bilateral contracting, without commitment regarding others' terms. Each firm then fears that the supplier might opportunistically renegotiate another's contract to increase bilateral profit at the firm's expense. We show that nondiscrimination clauses generally cannot curb such third-party opportunism, even with symmetric firms. To reassure firms, crude forms of commitment may be adopted. This could explain the pervasiveness of exclusivity arrangements and the striking uniformity and intertemporal rigidity of franchise contracts.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Mar., 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2012.09.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2117979} } @ARTICLE{McCall:search, author = {McCall, John J.}, title = {Economics of Information and Job Search}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1970}, volume = {84}, pages = {113-126}, number = {1}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @ARTICLE{McCallum96, author = {Bennett T. McCallum}, title = {Neoclassical vs. Endogenous Growth Analysis: An Overview}, journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly}, year = {1996}, volume = {82}, pages = {41-71}, number = {4}, month = {Fall}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{McEvedyJones78, title = {Atlas of World Population History}, publisher = {Penguin}, year = {1978}, author = {Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Mcfadden73, author = {Daniel McFadden}, title = {conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior}, booktitle = {Frontiers in Econometrics}, publisher = {Academic Press}, year = {1973}, editor = {P. Zarembka}, volume = {3}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{McGrattan-Prescott, author = {McGrattan, Ellen R. and Prescott, Edward C.}, title = {Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2010}, volume = {2}, pages = {88-123}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1257/mac.2.4.88}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.06.11}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.2.4.88} } @BOOK{McKeown76, title = {The Modern Rise of Population}, publisher = {Academic Press}, year = {1976}, author = {Thomas McKeown}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Meadowsetal72, title = {The Limits to Growth}, publisher = {Universe Books}, year = {1972}, author = {Donella H. Meadows and others}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{MearaWhiteCutler2004, author = {Ellen Meara and Chapin White and David M. Cutler}, title = {Trends in Medical Spending by Age, 1963--2000}, journal = {Health Affairs}, year = {2004}, volume = {23}, pages = {176-183}, number = {4}, month = {July/August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Mehra:Prescott, author = {Mehra, Rajnish and Edward C. Prescott}, title = {The Equity Premium: A Puzzle}, journal = jme, year = {1985}, volume = {15}, pages = {145-161}, number = {2}, month = {March} } @ARTICLE{Menzio:JPE, author = {Menzio, Guido}, title = {A Theory of Partially Directed Search}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2007}, volume = {115}, pages = {748-769}, number = {5}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2008.08.13} } @UNPUBLISHED{Menzio:Hidden, author = {Menzio, Guido}, title = {A Cheap-Talk Theory of Random and Directed Search}, note = {Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania}, month = {September}, year = {2005} } @BOOK{Merton65, title = {On the Shoulders of Giants: A Shandean Postscript}, publisher = {Free Press}, year = {1965}, author = {Robert K. Merton}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Merz:JMP, author = {Merz, Monika}, title = {Search in the Labor Market and the Real Business Cycle}, journal = jme, year = {1995}, volume = {36}, pages = {269-300}, number = {2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.08.15} } @ARTICLE{Merz:Yashiv, author = {Merz, Monika and Yashiv, Eran}, title = {Labor and the Market Value of the Firm}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2007}, volume = {97}, pages = {1419-1431}, number = {4}, copyright = {Copyright � 2007 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Sep., 2007}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2013.04.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/30034099} } @ARTICLE{Mian:Rao, author = {Mian, Atif and Rao, Kamalesh and Sufi, Amir}, title = {Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2013}, volume = {128}, pages = {1687-1726}, number = {4}, abstract = {We investigate the consumption consequences of the 2006�9 housing collapse using the highly unequal geographic distribution of wealth losses across the United States. We estimate a large elasticity of consumption with respect to housing net worth of 0.6 to 0.8, which soundly rejects the hypothesis of full consumption risk-sharing. The average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of housing wealth is 5�7 cents with substantial heterogeneity across ZIP codes. ZIP codes with poorer and more levered households have a significantly higher MPC out of housing wealth. In line with the MPC result, ZIP codes experiencing larger wealth losses, particularly those with poorer and more levered households, experience a larger reduction in credit limits, refinancing likelihood, and credit scores. Our findings highlight the role of debt and the geographic distribution of wealth shocks in explaining the large and unequal decline in consumption from 2006 to 2009. JEL Codes: E21, E32, E44, E60.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjt020}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/128/4/1687.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.03.25}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/128/4/1687.abstract} } @ARTICLE{MianSufi:PP, author = {Mian, Atif and Sufi, Amir}, title = {The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2010}, volume = {100}, pages = {pp. 51-56}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright � 2010 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {May 2010}, jstor_issuetitle = {PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS OF THE One Hundred Twenty Second Annual Meeting OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2015.03.11}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27804962} } @TECHREPORT{MianSufi:AggDemand, author = {Atif R. Mian and Amir Sufi}, title = {What Explains High Unemployment? The Aggregate Demand Channel}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2012}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {17830}, month = {February}, abstract = {A drop in aggregate demand driven by shocks to household balance sheets is responsible for a large fraction of the decline in U.S. employment from 2007 to 2009. The aggregate demand channel for unemployment predicts that employment losses in the non-tradable sector are higher in high leverage U.S. counties that were most severely impacted by the balance sheet shock, while losses in the tradable sector are distributed uniformly across all counties. We find exactly this pattern from 2007 to 2009. Alternative hypotheses for job losses based on uncertainty shocks or structural unemployment related to construction do not explain our results. Using the relation between non-tradable sector job losses and demand shocks and assuming Cobb-Douglas preferences over tradable and non-tradable goods, we quantify the effect of aggregate demand channel on total employment. Our estimates suggest that the decline in aggregate demand driven by household balance sheet shocks accounts for almost 4 million of the lost jobs from 2007 to 2009, or 65% of the lost jobs in our data.}, doi = {10.3386/w17830}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w17830} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mian:clunkers, author = {Mian, Atif R. and Sufi, Amir}, title = {The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 `Cash for Clunkers' Program}, year = {2010}, keywords = {cash for clunkers, fiscal stimulus, durable goods, auto sales, rebates}, language = {English} } @ARTICLE{Mian:Sufi, author = {Mian, Atif R. and Amir Sufi}, title = {Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007$-$09}, journal = {IMF Economic Review}, year = {2010}, volume = {58}, pages = {74-117}, number = {2}, month = {July}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.10.31} } @ARTICLE{Michaillat:Saez, author = {Michaillat, Pascal and Saez, Emmanuel}, title = {Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2015}, volume = {130}, pages = {507-569}, number = {2}, abstract = {This article develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the general-disequilibrium model of Barro and Grossman (1971) but takes a matching approach to the labor and product markets instead of a disequilibrium approach. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. Since there are two equilibrium variables but only one equilibrium condition on each market, a price mechanism is needed to select an equilibrium. We focus on two polar mechanisms: fixed prices and competitive prices. When prices are fixed, aggregate demand affects unemployment as follows. An increase in aggregate demand leads firms to find more customers. This reduces the idle time of their employees and thus increases their labor demand. This in turn reduces unemployment. We combine the predictions of the model and empirical measures of product market tightness, labor market tightness, output, and employment to assess the sources of labor market fluctuations in the United States. First, we find that product market tightness and labor market tightness fluctuate a lot, which implies that the fixed-price equilibrium describes the data better than the competitive-price equilibrium. Next, we find that labor market tightness and employment are positively correlated, which suggests that the labor market fluctuations are mostly due to labor demand shocks and not to labor supply or mismatch shocks. Last, we find that product market tightness and output are positively correlated, which suggests that the labor demand shocks mostly reflect aggregate demand shocks and not technology shocks. JEL Codes: E10, E24, E30, J2, J64.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjv006}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/130/2/507.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.05.30}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/130/2/507.abstract} } @TECHREPORT{Mich:Saez, author = {Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez}, title = {An Economical Business-Cycle Model}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2014}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19777}, month = {January}, abstract = {In recent decades, advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation and long periods of liquidity trap. We construct an alternative business-cycle model capturing these two features by adding two assumptions to a money-in-the-utility-function model: the labor market is subject to matching frictions, and real wealth enters the utility function. These assumptions modify the two core equations of the standard New Keynesian model. With matching frictions, we can analyze equilibria in which inflation is fixed and not determined by a forward-looking Phillips curve. With wealth in the utility, the Euler equation is modified and we can obtain steady-state equilibria with a liquidity trap, positive inflation, and labor market slack. The model is simple enough to inspect the mechanisms behind cyclical fluctuations and to study the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies. As a byproduct, the model provides microfoundations for the classical IS-LM model. Finally, we show how directed search can be combined with costly price adjustments to generate a forward-looking Phillips curve and recover some insights from the New Keynesian model.}, doi = {10.3386/w19777}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.03.28}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19777} } @ARTICLE{Michelacci:Suarez, author = {Michelacci, Claudio and Javier Suarez}, title = {Incomplete Wage Posting}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2006}, volume = {114}, pages = {1098-1123}, number = {6}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.12.24} } @ARTICLE{MilgromRoberts90, author = {Milgrom, Paul and Roberts, John}, title = {The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1990}, volume = {80}, pages = {511-528}, number = {3}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Milton:Sinclair, title = {The Capital Needs of Central Banks}, publisher = {Routledge}, year = {2010}, author = {Sue Milton and Peter Sinclair}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @BOOK{Mincer74, title = {Schooling, Experience, and Earnings}, publisher = {Columbia University Press}, year = {1974}, author = {Jacob Mincer}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Miniaci:Monfardini, author = {Miniaci, Raffaele and Chiara Monfardini and Guglielmo Weber}, title = {Is There a Retirement Consumption Puzzle in Italy?}, note = {Institute for Fiscal Studies, Working Paper 03/14}, month = {July}, year = {2003} } @UNPUBLISHED{N:LandLabor, author = {Narayana R. Kocherlakota Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis April 2013}, title = {Impact of a Land Price Fall When Labor Markets are Incomplete}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis}, month = {April}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.07.08} } @BOOK{Mishan93, title = {The Costs of Economic Growth}, publisher = {Greenwood Press, Revised Edition}, year = {1993}, author = {E.J. Mishan}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Mitzenmacher2003, author = {Michael Mitzenmacher}, title = {A Brief History of Generative Models for Power Law and Lognormal Distributions}, journal = {Internet Mathematics}, year = {2003}, volume = {1}, number = {2}, month = {forthcoming}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Mokyr90, title = {The Lever of Riches}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {1990}, author = {Joel Mokyr}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Molinari:Turino, author = {Benedetto Molinari and Francesco Turino}, title = {Advertising and Business Cycle Fluctuations}, note = {Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Economicas, working paper WP-AD 2009-09}, month = {March}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.08.30} } @UNPUBLISHED{Moll2010, author = {Benjamin Moll}, title = {Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-financing Undo Capital Misallocation?}, note = {Princeton University manuscript}, year = {2010}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Moraga:Gonzalez, author = {Moraga-Gonz\'{a}lez, Jos\'{e} Luis}, title = {Estimation of Search Costs}, note = {University of Groningen}, month = {March}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.02.16} } @ARTICLE{Moraga:Wildenbeest, author = {Jos� Luis Moraga-Gonz�lez and Matthijs R. Wildenbeest}, title = {Maximum likelihood estimation of search costs}, journal = {European Economic Review}, year = {2008}, volume = {52}, pages = {820-848}, number = {5}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2007.06.025}, issn = {0014-2921}, keywords = {Consumer search}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.03.29}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V64-4P59XD2-1/2/6ed7b31d2d60aa590032a613a8ea0928} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mortensen:CTU, author = {Mortensen, Dale T.}, title = {Comments on Hall's Clashing Theories of Unemployment}, note = {Department of Economics, Northwestern University}, month = {July}, year = {2011}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.08.24} } @BOOK{Mortensen:book, title = {Wage Dispersion: Why Are Similar Workers Paid Differently?}, publisher = {MIT Press: Zeuthen Lecture Book Series}, year = {2003}, author = {Mortensen, Dale T.}, address = {Cambridge, Massachusetts}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @ARTICLE{Mortensen:effwage, author = {Mortensen, Dale T.}, title = {The Persistence and Indeterminacy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium}, journal = {The Scandinavian Journal of Economics}, year = {1989}, volume = {91}, pages = {347-370}, number = {2}, abstract = {Existing theories that explain persistent and indeterminant unemployment are brought together within the unifying framework of search equilibrium. External economies that exhibit increasing returns to production and exchange are identified as potential causes for both the indeterminacy and the persistence of unemployment for a wide range of assumptions about wage determination. Those considered include a "market-clearing" wage, an "efficiency" wage, and an "insider-outsider" wage model. Although either of the non-market-clearing specifications can induce greater persistence, multiple equilibria require increasing returns in the technologies of either production or exchange.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1989 The Scandinavian Journal of Economics}, issn = {03470520}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 1989}, jstor_issuetitle = {90th Anniversary Symposium: Whither Macroeconomics?}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley on behalf of The Scandinavian Journal of Economics}, timestamp = {2013.06.09}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3440116} } @ARTICLE{Mortensen82, author = {Mortensen, Dale T}, title = {Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1982}, volume = {72}, pages = {968-79}, number = {5}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Mortensen:specific, author = {Mortensen, Dale T.}, title = {Specific Capital and Labor Turnover}, journal = {Bell Journal of Economics}, year = {1978}, volume = {9}, pages = {572-586}, number = {2}, month = {Autumn}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @ARTICLE{Mortensen:Pissarides, author = {Mortensen, Dale T. and Christopher Pissarides}, title = {Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment}, journal = restud, year = {1994}, volume = {61}, pages = {397-415} } @UNPUBLISHED{Moscarini:skill, author = {Moscarini, Giuseppe}, title = {Skill and Luck in the Theory of Turnover}, note = {Department of Economics, Yale University}, month = {February}, year = {2003} } @ARTICLE{Moscarini:smallcap, author = {Moscarini, Giuseppe and Postel-Vinay, Fabien}, title = {Unemployment and Small Cap Returns: The Nexus}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2010}, volume = {100}, pages = {pp. 333-337}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright � 2010 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {May 2010}, jstor_issuetitle = {PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS OF THE One Hundred Twenty Second Annual Meeting OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2013.12.23}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27805014} } @ARTICLE{Moscarini:Postel-Vinay, author = {Moscarini, Giuseppe and Fabien Postel-Vinay}, title = {The Timing of Labor Market Expansions: New Facts and a New Hypothesis}, journal = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual}, year = {2008}, pages = {1-51}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2008.08.13} } @ARTICLE{Moskowitz:Vissing-Jorgensen, author = {Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette}, title = {The Return to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium?}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2002}, volume = {92}, pages = {745-778}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.12.04} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mountford:Uhlig, author = {Mountford, Andrew, and Uhlig, Harald}, title = {What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?}, note = {NBER Working Paper 14551}, month = {December}, year = {2008}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.08.13} } @UNPUBLISHED{Moylan:software, author = {Carol Moylan}, title = {Estimation of Software in the U.S. National Accounts: New Developments}, note = {Bureau of Economic Analysis, U. S. Department of Commerce, www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/USSoftware.pdf}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.15} } @UNPUBLISHED{Hall:Mueller, author = {Andreas Mueller and Robert E. Hall}, title = {Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior}, note = {In preparation}, year = {2014}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.03.09} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mueller2015, author = {Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {Separations, Sorting and Cyclical Unemployment}, note = {Columbia University}, month = {September}, year = {2015}, timestamp = {2016.08.12} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mueller2013, author = {Andreas I. Mueller}, title = {Reservation Wages over the Spell of Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data}, note = {Columbia University}, month = {February}, year = {2013}, timestamp = {2013.02.18} } @TECHREPORT{Mueller:Rothstein, author = {Andreas I. Mueller and Jesse Rothstein and Till M. von Wachter}, title = {Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2013}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19672}, month = {November}, abstract = {Disability insurance (DI) applications and awards are countercyclical. One potential explanation is that unemployed individuals who exhaust their Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits use DI as a form of extended benefits. We exploit the haphazard pattern of UI benefit extensions in the Great Recession to identify the effect of UI exhaustion on DI application, using both aggregate data at the state-month and state-week levels and microdata on unemployed individuals in the Current Population Survey. We find no indication that expiration of UI benefits causes DI applications. Our estimates are sufficiently precise to rule out effects of meaningful magnitude.}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.03.14}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19672} } @UNPUBLISHED{Mukoyama:discounts, author = {Toshihiko Mukoyama}, title = {A Note on Cyclical Discount Factors and Labor Market Volatility}, note = {University of Virginia}, month = {September}, year = {2009}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.12.23} } @TECHREPORT{Mulligan:incentives, author = {Casey B. Mulligan}, title = {Do Welfare Policies Matter for Labor Market Aggregates? Quantifying Safety Net Work Incentives since 2007}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2012}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {18088}, month = {May}, abstract = {Inflation-adjusted spending on means-tested subsidies has increased sharply since 2007, and most of the growth was due to changes in eligibility rules, and increases in subsidies per eligible person, rather than increases in the number of people who would have been eligible under pre-recession subsidy rules. In 2007, the non-elderly parts of the safety net paid about $10,000 in benefits per person-year that non-elderly heads of household or spouses were unemployed. By the end of 2009, the annual subsidy rate per person-year unemployed was up to $16,000. As a result, the average private returns to employment are substantially less than they were in 2007. One result of the paper is a monthly time series for the overall safety net�s marginal income tax rate from the point of view of the average marginal worker.}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.03.14}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18088} } @BOOK{Mulligan:RedistRecess, title = {The Redistribution Recession: How Labor Market Distortions Contracted the Economy}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {2012}, author = {Casey B. Mulligan}, address = {New York}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.03.11} } @ARTICLE{Mulligan:Substitution, author = {Mulligan, Casey B.}, title = {Substitution over Time: Another Look at Life-Cycle Labor Supply}, journal = nberma, year = {1998}, pages = {75-134} } @UNPUBLISHED{MulliganSala94, author = {Casey B. Mulligan and Xavier {Sala-i-Martin}}, title = {Measures of the Aggregate Value of Human Capital}, note = {University of Chicago mimeo}, year = {1994}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Mundell:inflation, author = {Mundell, Robert}, title = {Inflation and Real Interest}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1963}, volume = {71}, pages = {pp. 280-283}, number = {3}, copyright = {Copyright � 1963 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 1963}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2015.04.22}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1828985} } @ARTICLE{MundyWSJ2008, author = {Alicia Mundy}, title = {FDA Withholds List of Chinese Heparin Suppliers From Probe}, journal = {The Wall Street Journal}, year = {2008}, pages = {A4}, month = {May 10}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{MurphyShleiferVishny89, author = {Murphy, Kevin M. and Shleifer, Andrei and Vishny, Robert W.}, title = {Industrialization and the Big Push}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1989}, volume = {97}, pages = {1003-26}, number = {5}, month = {October}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{MurphyTopel2006, author = {Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel}, title = {The Value of Health and Longevity}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2006}, volume = {114}, pages = {871-904}, number = {5}, month = {October}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{MurrayGBD96, title = {The global burden of disease : a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020}, publisher = {Harvard School of Public Health}, year = {1996}, author = {Christopher J.L. Murray and Alan D. Lopez}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Muthoo:bargaining, title = {Bargaining Theory with Applications}, publisher = {\hspace{0.05in}Cambridge University Press}, year = {1999}, author = {Muthoo, Abhinay}, address = {Cambridge} } @ARTICLE{Myerson:Satterthwaite, author = {Roger B. Myerson and Mark A. Satterthwaite}, title = {Efficient mechanisms for bilateral trading }, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory }, year = {1983}, volume = {29}, pages = {265 - 281}, number = {2}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(83)90048-0}, issn = {0022-0531}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0022053183900480} } @UNPUBLISHED{nadiri93, author = {Nadiri, M. Ishaq}, title = {Innovations and Technological Spillovers}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 4423}, year = {1993}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Nagypal:extent, author = {Nagyp\'al , \'Eva}, title = {On the Extent of Job-to-Job Transitions}, note = {Northwestern University Department of Economics}, month = {September}, year = {2005}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.05.26} } @ARTICLE{Nakajima:UIextension, author = {Makoto Nakajima}, title = {A Quantitative Analysis of Unemployment Benefit Extensions}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics }, year = {2012}, volume = {59}, pages = {686 - 702}, number = {7}, doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.09.005}, issn = {0304-3932}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.05.15}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393212000943} } @UNPUBLISHED{Nakamura:intangibles, author = {Leonard Nakamura}, title = {What is the U.S. Gross Investment in Intangibles? (At Least) One Trillion Dollars a Year!}, note = {Working Paper 01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia}, month = {October}, year = {2001}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.06.11} } @ARTICLE{Nash:demand, author = {Nash, John}, title = {Two-Person Cooperative Games}, journal = ema, year = {1953}, volume = {21}, pages = {128-140}, number = {1}, month = {January} } @BOOK{nchs2000, title = {Health, United States 2000}, year = {2000}, author = {{National Center for Health Statistics}}, address = {Hyattsville, MD}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb2000, title = {Science \& Engineering Indicators -- 2000}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {2000}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, note = {http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind00/}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb98, title = {Science \& Engineering Indicators -- 1998}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1998}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb96, title = {Science \& Engineering Indicators -- 1996}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1996}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb93, title = {Science \& Engineering Indicators -- 1993}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1993}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb91, title = {Science \& Engineering Indicators -- 1991}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1991}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{nsb77, title = {National Patterns of R\&D Resources 1953--1977}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {1977}, author = {{National Science Board}}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{nsf98, author = {{National Science Foundation}}, title = {R\&D as a Percent of GDP is Highest in Six Years}, note = {Data Brief}, month = {October}, year = {1998}, address = {Washington D.C.}, day = {16}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{nsf95, author = {{National Science Foundation}}, title = {National Patterns of R\&D Resources: 1994}, journal = {NSF 95-304}, year = {1994}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Nekarda:2009, author = {Nekarda, Christopher J.}, title = {A Longitudinal Analysis of the Current Population Survey: Assessing the Cyclical Bias of Geographic Mobility}, note = {Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System}, month = {May}, year = {2009}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.11.29} } @TECHREPORT{Nekarda:Ramey, author = {Christopher J. Nekarda and Valerie A. Ramey}, title = {The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2013}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19099}, month = {June}, abstract = {A countercyclical markup of price over marginal cost is the key transmission mechanism for demand shocks in textbook New Keynesian (NK) models. This paper re-examines the foundation of those models. We study the cyclicality of markups in the private economy as well as in detailed manufacturing industries. First, we show that frameworks for measuring markups that have produced the strongest evidence for countercyclicality produce the opposite result when we substitute new methods and data. Second, because the NK model's predictions differ by the nature of the shock, we present evidence on the cyclicality of the markup conditional on various types of shocks. Consistent with the NK model, we find that markups are procyclical conditional on a technology shock. However, we find that they are either procyclical or acyclical conditional on demand shocks. Thus, the textbook NK explanation for the effects of government spending or monetary policy is not supported by the behavior of the markup.}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2014.04.21}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19099} } @ARTICLE{Nekarda:AEJMacro, author = {Nekarda, Christopher J. and Ramey, Valerie A.}, title = {Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2011}, volume = {3}, pages = {36-59}, number = {1}, month = {January}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.08.08} } @ARTICLE{Nerlove:Arrow, author = {Nerlove, Marc and Arrow, Kenneth J.}, title = {Optimal Advertising Policy under Dynamic Conditions}, journal = {Economica}, year = {1962}, volume = {29}, pages = {129-142}, number = {114}, copyright = {Copyright � 1962 The London School of Economics and Political Science}, issn = {00130427}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {May, 1962}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The London School of Economics and Political Science and The Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines}, series = {New Series}, timestamp = {2012.08.10}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2551549} } @ARTICLE{Nevo:cereal, author = {Aviv Nevo}, title = {Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {2001}, volume = {69}, pages = {307-342}, number = {2}, abstract = {The ready-to-eat cereal industry is characterized by high concentration, high price-cost margins, large advertising-to-sales ratios, and numerous introductions of new products. Previous researchers have concluded that the ready-to-eat cereal industry is a classic example of an industry with nearly collusive pricing behavior and intense nonprice competition. This paper empirically examines this conclusion. In particular, I estimate price-cost margins, but more importantly I am able empirically to separate these margins into three sources: (i) that which is due to product differentiation; (ii) that which is due to multi-product firm pricing; and (iii) that due to potential price collusion. The results suggest that given the demand for different brands of cereal, the first two effects explain most of the observed price-cost margins. I conclude that prices in the industry are consistent with noncollusive pricing behavior, despite the high price-cost margins. Leading firms are able to maintain a portfolio of differentiated products and influence the perceived product quality. It is these two factors that lead to high price-cost margins.}, issn = {00129682, 14680262}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {[Wiley, Econometric Society]}, timestamp = {2016.11.18}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2692234} } @ARTICLE{NeweyWest:lags, author = {Newey, Whitney K. and West, Kenneth D.}, title = {Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {1994}, volume = {61}, pages = {631-53}, number = {4}, month = {October}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.29} } @ARTICLE{NeweyWest:estimator, author = {Newey, Whitney K. and West, Kenneth D.}, title = {A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1987}, volume = {55}, pages = {703-8}, number = {3}, month = {May}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.29} } @BOOK{Newhouse93, title = {Free for All? Lessons from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1993}, author = {Joseph P. Newhouse}, address = {Cambridge, M.A.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Newhouse77, author = {Joseph P. Newhouse}, title = {Medical-Care Expenditure: A Cross-National Survey}, journal = {Journal of Human Resources}, year = {1977}, volume = {12}, pages = {115-125}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Nordhaus94b, author = {William D. Nordhaus}, title = {Climate and Economic Development}, journal = {Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics 1993}, year = {1994}, pages = {355-376}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{NordhausTobin72, author = {William D. Nordhaus and James Tobin}, title = {Is Growth Obsolete?}, booktitle = {Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect Vol 5: Economic Growth}, publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc}, year = {1972}, pages = {1-80}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/7620.html} } @BOOK{North90, title = {Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1990}, author = {Douglass C. North}, address = {Cambridge}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{North81, title = {Structure and Change in Economic History}, publisher = {W.W. Norton \& Co.}, year = {1981}, author = {Douglass C. North}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{NorthThomas73, title = {The Rise of the Western World}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1973}, author = {Douglass C. North and Robert P. Thomas}, address = {Cambridge}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Northetal2009, title = {Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework For Interpreting Recorded Human History}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2009}, author = {Douglass C. North and John Joseph Wallis and Barry R. Weingast}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{o2004patents, author = {Ted {O'Donoghue} and Josef Zweim{\\"u}ller}, title = {Patents in a model of endogenous growth}, journal = {Journal of Economic Growth}, year = {2004}, volume = {9}, pages = {81-123}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Obstfeld:speculation, author = {Obstfeld, Maurice and Rogoff, Kenneth}, title = {Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1983}, volume = {91}, pages = {675-687}, number = {4}, abstract = {This paper uses an infinite-horizon model based on individual maximizing behavior to study whether explosive price-level paths unrelated to monetary growth--speculative hyperinflations--can be equilibrium paths under rational expectations. In a pure fiat money regime, speculative hyperinflations can be excluded only through severe restrictions on individual preferences; but when the government fractionally backs the currency by guaranteeing a minimal real redemption value for money, speculative hyperinflations are impossible, even if agents are not completely certain that they can redeem their money in any given period. The analysis also confirms that implosive price-level paths and divergent paths for capital asset prices are not equilibria under either monetary regime.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1983 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Aug., 1983}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2012.12.07}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1831073} } @MISC{OECD2000, author = {OECD}, title = {OECD Health Data 2000 - A Comparative Analysis of 29 Countries}, howpublished = {http://www.oecd.org/els/health/software/fad.htm}, year = {2000}, note = {ISBN 92-64-06876-7}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{erp94, title = {Economic Report of the President}, publisher = {United States Government Printing Office}, year = {1994}, author = {{Office of the President of the United States}}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{erp93, title = {Economic Report of the President}, publisher = {United States Government Printing Office}, year = {1993}, author = {{Office of the President of the United States}}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Okun:law, author = {Okun, Arthur M.}, title = {Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance}, journal = {Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, Americant Statiscial Association}, year = {1962}, pages = {98--104}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.06.06} } @ARTICLE{2007, author = {Oliner, Stephen D. and Sichel, Daniel E. and Stiroh, Kevin J.}, title = {Explaining a Productive Decade}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2007}, volume = {2007}, pages = {81-137}, number = {1}, copyright = {Copyright � 2007 The Brookings Institution}, issn = {00072303}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {2007}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {The Brookings Institution}, timestamp = {2011.06.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27561575} } @BOOK{Olson82, title = {The Rise and Decline of Nations}, publisher = {Yale University Press}, year = {1982}, author = {Mancur Olson}, address = {New Haven}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Olson65, title = {The Logic of Collective Action}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1965}, author = {Olson, Mancur}, address = {Cambridge}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{oecd2002, title = {National Accounts of OECD Countries, Volume 1}, publisher = {OECD}, year = {2002}, author = {{Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development}}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{pakesgriliches84, author = {Pakes, Ariel and Zvi Griliches}, title = {Patents and R\&D at the Firm Level: A First Look}, booktitle = {R\&D, Patents and Productivity}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1984}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, pages = {55-72}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{pakesschankerman84, author = {Pakes, Ariel and Mark Schankerman}, title = {The Rate of Obsolescence of Patents, Research Gestation Lags and the Private Rate of Return to Research Resources}, booktitle = {R\&D, Patents and Productivity}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1984}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, pages = {73-88}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{PalumboParker2009, author = {Michael G. Palumbo and Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does it Presage the Financial Crisis?}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2009}, volume = {99}, pages = {80-86}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Papke:Wooldridge, author = {Papke, Leslie E. and Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.}, title = {Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) plan participation rates}, journal = {Journal of Applied Econometrics}, year = {1996}, volume = {11}, pages = {619--632}, number = {6}, doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<619::AID-JAE418>3.0.CO;2-1}, issn = {1099-1255}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company}, timestamp = {2015.11.28}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<619::AID-JAE418>3.0.CO;2-1} } @ARTICLE{Papp, author = {Tamas Papp}, title = {Frictional Wage Dispersion with Bertrand Competition: an Assessment}, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics}, year = {2013}, volume = {16}, pages = {540-552}, number = {3}, month = {July}, timestamp = {2014.07.07} } @ARTICLE{ParentePrescott93, author = {Stephen L. Parente and Edward C. Prescott}, title = {Changes in the Wealth of Nations}, journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review}, year = {1993}, pages = {3-16}, month = {Spring}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{ParenteRogersonWright2000, author = {Stephen L. Parente and Richard Rogerson and Randall Wright}, title = {Homework in Development Economics: Household Production and the Wealth of Nations}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2000}, volume = {108}, pages = {680-687}, number = {4}, month = {August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INPROCEEDINGS{Parker1999b, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Spendthrift in America? On two decades of decline in the U.S. saving rate}, booktitle = {N.B.E.R. Macroeconomics Annual 1999}, year = {2000}, editor = {Ben Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg}, volume = {14}, pages = {317-370}, publisher = {Cambridge: MIT Press}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @INBOOK{Parker2008, pages = {1851-54}, title = {Euler Equations}, publisher = {Palgrave MacMillan}, year = {2008}, editor = {Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume}, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, edition = {second}, booktitle = {The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @INPROCEEDINGS{Parker2005, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Comment}, booktitle = {N.B.E.R. Macroeconomics Annual 2004}, year = {2005}, editor = {Mark Gertler and Ken Rogoff}, pages = {139-147}, publisher = {Cambridge: MIT Press}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Parker2003, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Consumption Risk and Expected Stock Returns}, journal = {American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings)}, year = {2003}, volume = {93}, pages = {376-382}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Parker2002, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Comment}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2002}, volume = {2}, pages = {119-26}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Parker2001, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2001}, volume = {2}, pages = {279-348}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Parker2000, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {Comment}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2000}, volume = {2}, pages = {150-58}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Parker1999, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1999}, volume = {89}, pages = {959-973}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @TECHREPORT{Parker1999c, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {The Consumption Function Re-Estimated}, year = {1999}, note = {manuscript, Princeton University}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @TECHREPORT{Parker1997, author = {Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {The Timing of Purchases, Market Power, and Economic Fluctuations}, year = {1997}, month = {November}, note = {Social Science Research Insitute Working paper 9724}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{ParkerJulliard2005, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Christian Julliard}, title = {Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2005}, volume = {113}, pages = {185-222}, number = {1}, month = {February}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.07.17} } @ARTICLE{ParkerPreston2005, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Bruce Preston}, title = {Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2005}, volume = {95}, pages = {1119-1143}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.07.17} } @TECHREPORT{ParkerSoulelesJohnsonMcClelland2009, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Nicholas S. Souleles and David S. Johnson and Robert McCelland}, title = {Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008}, institution = {Kellogg School of Management}, year = {2009}, type = {Manuscript}, month = {December}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.07.17} } @UNPUBLISHED{Parker:2008rebates, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Nicholas S. Souleles and David S. Johnson and Robert McClelland}, title = {Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008}, note = {Northwestern University}, month = {January}, year = {2011}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.11.28} } @TECHREPORT{Parker:Souleles, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Nicholas S. Souleles and David S. Johnson and Robert McClelland}, title = {Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2011}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {16684}, month = {January}, abstract = {We measure the response of household spending to the economic stimulus payments (ESPs) disbursed in mid-2008, using special questions added to the Consumer Expenditure Survey and variation arising from the randomized timing of when the payments were disbursed. We find that, on average, households spent about 12-30% (depending on the specification) of their stimulus payments on nondurable expenditures during the three-month period in which the payments were received. Further, there was also a substantial and significant increase in spending on durable goods, in particular vehicles, bringing the average total spending response to about 50-90% of the payments. Relative to research on the 2001 tax rebates, these spending responses are estimated with greater precision using the randomized timing variation. The estimated responses are substantial and significant for older, lower-income, and home-owning households. We find little evidence that the propensity to spend varies with the method of disbursement (paper check versus electronic transfer).}, doi = {10.3386/w16684}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.01}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w16684} } @ARTICLE{ParkerVissing2009, author = {Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen}, title = {Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How?}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2009}, volume = {99}, pages = {399-405}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.07.17} } @BOOK{Patinkin:Money, title = {Money, Interest, and Prices}, publisher = {Harper and Row}, year = {1965}, author = {Don Patinkin}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.24} } @ARTICLE{PedenFreeland98, author = {Edgar A. Peden and Mark S. Freeland}, title = {Insurance effects on US medical spending (1960-1993)}, journal = {Health Economics}, year = {1998}, volume = {7}, pages = {671-687}, number = {8}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{PedenFreeland95, author = {Edgar A. Peden and Mark S. Freeland}, title = {A Historical Analysis of Medical Spending Growth, 1960--1993}, journal = {Health Affairs}, year = {1995}, volume = {14}, pages = {235-247}, number = {2}, month = {Summer}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Perotti:Fiscal, author = {Perotti, Roberto}, title = {In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy}, note = {NBER Working Paper 13143}, month = {June}, year = {2007}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.08.13} } @ARTICLE{Perry:pothole, author = {George L. Perry}, title = {Unemployment Flows in the U.S. Labor Market}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {1972}, volume = {1972}, pages = {245-292}, number = {2}, issn = {00072303, 15334465}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Brookings Institution Press}, timestamp = {2016.12.12}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2534179} } @UNPUBLISHED{Peters2009, author = {Michael Peters}, title = {Heterogeneous Mark-Ups and Endogenous Misallocation}, note = {MIT unpublished manuscript}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Petev:Pistaferri, author = {Ivaylo Petev and Luigi Pistaferri and Itay Saporta Eksten}, title = {Consumption and the Great Recession: An Analysis of Trends, Perceptions, and Distributional Effects}, booktitle = {The Great Recession}, publisher = {Russell Sage Foundation}, year = {2012}, editor = {David B. Grusky and Bruce Western and Christopher Wimer}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2011.12.26} } @ARTICLE{Petrongolo:Pissarides, author = {Petrongolo, Barbara and Pissarides, Christopher A.}, title = {Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {2001}, volume = {39}, pages = {390-431}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright � 2001 American Economic Association}, issn = {00220515}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 2001}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2010.11.08}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2698244} } @ARTICLE{Petrosky:Nadeau, author = {Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau}, title = {Credit, Vacancies and Unemployment Fluctuations}, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics }, year = {2014}, volume = {17}, pages = {191 - 205}, abstract = {Abstract Propagation in equilibrium models of search unemployment is altered when vacancy costs require some external financing on frictional credit markets. The easing of financing constraints during an expansion as firms accumulate net worth reduces the opportunity cost for resources allocated to job creation. The dynamics of market tightness are affected by (i) a cost channel, increasing the incentive to recruit for a given benefit from a new hire, and (ii) a wage channel, whereby firms' improved bargaining position limits the upward pressure of market tightness on wages. Agency related credit frictions endogenously generate persistence in the dynamics of labor-market tightness, and have a moderate endogenous effect on amplification. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2013.10.001}, issn = {1094-2025}, keywords = {Vacancies and unemployment dynamics}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.09.21}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202513000628} } @ARTICLE{NPN:Wasmer, author = {Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Etienne Wasmer}, title = {Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Model of Goods, Labor, and Credit Market Frictions}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics }, year = {forthcoming, 2015}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.01.006}, issn = {0304-3932}, keywords = {Goods market search}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.02.25}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393215000161} } @ARTICLE{PN:Wasmer, author = {Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas and Wasmer, Etienne}, title = {The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2013}, volume = {5}, pages = {193-221}, number = {1}, abstract = {We provide a dynamic extension of an economy with search on credit and labor markets (Wasmer and Weil 2004). Financial frictions create volatility. They add an additional, almost acyclical, entry cost to procyclical job creation costs, thus increasing the elasticity of labor market tightness to productivity shocks by a factor of five to eight, compared to a matching economy with perfect financial markets. We characterize a dynamic financial multiplier that is increasing in total financial costs and minimized under a credit market HosiosPissarides rule. Financial frictions are an element of the solution to the volatility puzzle.}, doi = {doi:10.1257/mac.5.1.193}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2014.09.21}, url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/aejma/2013/00000005/00000001/art00007} } @TECHREPORT{PetNad:Zhang, author = {Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang}, title = {Unemployment Crises}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2013}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {19207}, month = {July}, abstract = {A search and matching model, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of unemployment in the postwar sample, can potentially explain the large unemployment dynamics in the Great Depression. The limited response of wages to labor market conditions from credible bargaining and the congestion externality from matching frictions cause the unemployment rate to rise sharply in recessions but decline gradually in booms. The frequency, severity, and persistence of unemployment crises in the model are quantitatively consistent with U.S. historical time series.}, doi = {10.3386/w19207}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2015.04.02}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19207} } @ARTICLE{Phelps:expect, author = {Phelps, Edmund}, title = {Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation, and Optimal Unemployment over Time}, journal = {Economica}, year = {1967}, volume = {34}, pages = {254-281}, number = {135}, month = {August} } @BOOK{Phelps:Slumps, title = {Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1994}, author = {Edmund S. Phelps}, address = {Cambridge, Massachusetts}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.12.20} } @ARTICLE{Philippon:q, author = {Philippon, Thomas}, title = {The Bond Market's q}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2009}, volume = {124}, pages = {1011-1056}, number = {3}, month = {August}, abstract = { I propose an implementation of the q-theory of investment using bond prices instead of equity prices. Credit risk makes corporate bond prices sensitive to future asset values, and q can be inferred from bond prices. With aggregate U.S. data, the bond market's q fits the investment equation six times better than the usual measure of q, it drives out cash flows, and it reduces the implied adjustment costs by more than an order of magnitude. Theoretical interpretations for these results are discussed. (c) 2009 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.12.03}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/qjecon/v124y2009i3p1011-1056.html} } @UNPUBLISHED{PhilipsonMechoulan2006, author = {Tomas Philipson and Stephane Mechoulan and Anupam B. Jena}, title = {I.P. and External Consumption Effects: Generalizations from Health Care Markets}, note = {NBER Working Paper 11930}, month = {January}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Pissarides:equilib, title = {Equilibrium Unemployment Theory}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {2000}, author = {Pissarides, Christopher}, address = {Cambridge}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.03.30} } @ARTICLE{Pissarides:unemp, author = {Pissarides, Christopher}, title = {Short-Run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies, and Real Wages}, journal = aer, year = {1985}, volume = {75}, pages = {676-690}, number = {4} } @ARTICLE{Pissarides:stickiness, author = {Pissarides, Christopher A.}, title = {The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {2009}, volume = {77}, pages = {1339--1369}, number = {5}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, timestamp = {2013.04.20} } @ARTICLE{Pissarides:search, author = {Pissarides, Christoper A.}, title = {Search, Wage Bargains and Cycles}, journal = restud, year = {1987}, volume = {54}, pages = {473-483}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.08.11} } @ARTICLE{Pissarides85, author = {Pissarides, Christopher A}, title = {Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1985}, volume = {75}, pages = {676-90}, number = {4}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Pistaferri2003, author = {Luigi Pistaferri}, title = {Anticipated and Unanticipated Wage Changes, Wage Risk, and Intertemporal Labor Supply}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, year = {2003}, volume = {21}, pages = {729-754}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Polivka:Miller, author = {Anne E. Polivka and Stephen M. Miller}, title = {The CPS After the Redesign: Refocusing the Economic Lens}, note = {Bureau of Labor Statistics}, month = {March}, year = {1995}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.06.09} } @BOOK{Posner2004, title = {Catastrophe: Risk and Response}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {2004}, author = {Richard A. Posner}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Postel:Vinay, author = {Postel-Vinay, Fabien and Robin, Jean-Marc}, title = {The Distribution of Earnings in an Equilibrium Search Model with State-Dependent Offers and Counteroffers}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {2002}, volume = {43}, pages = {989-1016}, number = {4}, abstract = {We construct an equilibrium job search model with on-the-job search in which firms implement optimal-wage strategies under full information in the sense that they leave no rent to their employees and counter the offers received by their employees from competing firms. Productivity dispersion across firms results in wage mobility both within and across firms. Workers may accept wage cuts to move to firms offering higher future wage prospects. Equilibrium productivity dispersion across ex ante homogeneous firms can be endogenously generated. Productivity dispersion then generates a nontrivial wage distribution which is generically thin-tailed, as typically observed in the data.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2002 Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania}, issn = {00206598}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Nov., 2002}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell for the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and Institute of Social and Economic Research -- Osaka University}, timestamp = {2012.09.01}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/826957} } @ARTICLE{Postel-Vinay:equil, author = {Postel-Vinay, Fabien and Jean-Marc Robin}, title = {Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity}, journal = ema, year = {2002}, volume = {70}, pages = {2295-2350}, number = {6} } @INPROCEEDINGS{Poterba:return, author = {Poterba, James M}, title = {The Rate Of Return to Corporate Capital and Factor Shares: New Estimates Using Revised National Income Accounts and Capital Stock Data}, booktitle = {Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy}, year = {1998}, volume = {48}, pages = {211--246}, organization = {Elsevier}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.17} } @ARTICLE{poterba92, author = {Poterba, James M.}, title = {Why Didn't the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Raise Corporate Taxes?}, year = {1992}, volume = {6}, pages = {43-58}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, booktitle = {Tax Policy and the Economy}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {MIT Press}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Pot:SummECMA, author = {Poterba, James M. and Summers, Lawrence H.}, title = {Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1986}, volume = {54}, pages = {pp. 1319-1338}, number = {6}, abstract = {This paper estimates the incidence of response errors in the Current Population Survey. It proposes a procedure for adjusting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' gross flows data on labor market transitions to account for these errors. Although the findings are not definitive because the procedure makes particular assumptions regarding the stochastic process generating response errors, they illustrate the potentially substantial effect of response errors on studies of labor market behavior. The adjustment procedure suggests that because measurement errors give rise to spurious transitions between labor market states, the labor market may be less dynamic than previously thought. The results imply that conventional measures may understate the duration of unemployment by as much as eighty per cent, and overstate the frequency of labor force entry and exit by even more.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1986 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Nov., 1986}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2014.04.25}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1914301} } @ARTICLE{Prescott98, author = {Edward C. Prescott}, title = {Needed: A Theory of Total Factor Productivity}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {1998}, volume = {39}, pages = {525-51}, number = {3}, month = {August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{prescott86, author = {Prescott, Edward C.}, title = {Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement}, journal = {Quarterly Review}, year = {1986}, pages = {9-22}, month = {Fall}, organization = {Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{prescottboyd87, author = {Prescott, Edward C. and Boyd, John H.}, title = {Dynamic Coalitions: Engines of Growth}, journal = {American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings}, year = {1987}, volume = {77}, pages = {63-67}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Preston96, author = {Samuel H. Preston}, title = {American Longevity: Past, Present, and Future}, note = {Syracuse University, Center for Policy Research, Policy Brief No. 7}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Pries:Rogerson, author = {Michael Pries and Richard Rogerson}, title = {Hiring Policies, Labor Market Institutions, and Labor Market Flows}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2005}, volume = {113}, pages = {pp. 811--839}, number = {4}, copyright = {Copyright � 2005 The University of Chicago Press}, issn = {00223808}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {August 2005}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, timestamp = {2015.04.09} } @ARTICLE{Pries:persistence, author = {Pries, Michael J.}, title = {Persistence of Employment Fluctuations: A Model of Recurring Job Loss}, journal = {The Review of Economic Studies}, year = {2004}, volume = {71}, pages = {193-215}, number = {1}, abstract = {Standard models of employment fluctuations cannot reconcile the unemployment rate's remarkable persistence with the high job-finding rates found in worker flows data. A matching model emphasizing high hazard rates among newly formed firm-worker matches can resolve this shortcoming. In the model, matches are experience goods; consequently, newly employed workers face higher hazard rates. Following a job loss, workers may experience several short-lived jobs before finding stable employment. At an aggregate level, an initial burst of job loss precipitates a steady flow of recurring job loss. A simulation shows that this recurring job loss can account for the fact that the unemployment rate remains elevated for as much as 4 or 5 years following an initial jump.}, doi = {10.1111/0034-6527.00281}, eprint = {http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/71/1/193.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.04.09}, url = {http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/71/1/193.abstract} } @ARTICLE{Primiceri:Rens, author = {Primiceri, Giorgio and Thijs van Rens}, title = {Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {2009}, volume = {56}, pages = {20�39}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @UNPUBLISHED{Pritchett96, author = {Lant Pritchett}, title = {Where Has All the Eduation Gone?}, note = {The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1581}, month = {March}, year = {1996}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{PritchettSummers96, author = {Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers}, title = {Wealthier is Healthier}, journal = {Journal of Human Resources}, year = {1996}, volume = {31}, pages = {841-868}, number = {4}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Psacharopoulos94, author = {George Psacharopoulos}, title = {Returns to Investment in Education: A Global Update}, journal = {World Development}, year = {1994}, volume = {22}, pages = {1325-1343}, number = {9}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Quah94, author = {Danny Quah}, title = {Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence}, note = {LSE Economics Department mimeo}, month = {September}, year = {1994}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Quah93, author = {Danny Quah}, title = {Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis}, journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Economics}, year = {1993}, volume = {95}, pages = {427-443}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Quah1996, author = {Quah, Danny T.}, title = {{Empirics for economic growth and convergence}}, journal = {European Economic Review}, year = {1996}, volume = {40}, pages = {1353-1375}, number = {6}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Elsevier}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Rachel:Smith, author = {Rachel, Lukasz and Smith, Thomas}, title = {Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate}, institution = {Bank of England}, year = {2015}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {571}, month = {December}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.03.30} } @ARTICLE{Ramey:mult, author = {Ramey, Valerie A.}, title = {Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {2011}, volume = {49}, pages = {673-85}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1257/jel.49.3.673}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.03.25}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.49.3.673} } @ARTICLE{Ramey:timing, author = {Ramey, Valerie A.}, title = {Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Standard vector autoregression (VAR) identification methods find that government spending raises consumption and real wages; the Ramey–Shapiro narrative approach finds the opposite. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that these shocks are missing the timing of the news. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I use a narrative method to construct richer government spending news variables from 1939 to 2008. The implied government spending multipliers range from 0.6 to 1.2.}, doi = {10.1093/qje/qjq008}, eprint = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/03/21/qje.qjq008.full.pdf+html}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.11.21}, url = {http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/03/21/qje.qjq008.abstract} } @UNPUBLISHED{RamondoRodriguez2009, author = {Natalia Ramondo and Andres Rodriguez-Clare}, title = {{Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness}}, note = {Penn State University working paper}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{RaoWuYue:1992, author = {Rao, J.N.K. and Wu, C.F.J. and Yue, K.}, title = {Some recent work on resampling methods for complex surveys}, journal = {Survey Methodology}, year = {1992}, volume = {18}, pages = {209--217}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.08.16} } @BOOK{Rapaczynski87, title = {Nature and Politics: Liberalism in the Philosophies of Hobbes, Locke, and Rousseau}, publisher = {Cornell University Press}, year = {1987}, author = {Andrzej Rapaczynski}, address = {Ithaca}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{rapoport71, author = {Rapoport, John}, title = {The Anatomy of the Product-Innovation Process: Cost and Time}, booktitle = {Research and Innovation in the Modern Corporation}, publisher = {W. W. Norton}, year = {1971}, editor = {Edwin Mansfield}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{RautSrinivasan94, author = {L.K. Raut and T.N. Srinivasan}, title = {Dynamics of Endogenous Growth}, journal = {Economic Theory}, year = {1994}, volume = {4}, pages = {777-790}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Ravn:Sterk, author = {Morten O. Ravn and Vincent Sterk}, title = {Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions}, note = {University College London}, month = {December}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.03.14} } @BOOK{Rawls1971, title = {A Theory of Justice}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1971}, author = {John Rawls}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Redner98, author = {Sidney Redner}, title = {How Popular is Your Paper? An Empirical Study of the Citation Distribution}, journal = {European Physical Journal B}, year = {1998}, volume = {4}, pages = {131-134}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Rees2003, title = {Our Final Century}, publisher = {William Heinemann}, year = {2003}, author = {Martin Rees}, address = {London}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Reichling:JMP, author = {Reichling, Felix}, title = {Optimal Unemployment Insurance in Labor Market Equilibrium when Workers can Self-Insure}, note = {Department of Economics, Stanford University}, month = {November}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.09.12} } @TECHREPORT{Reif:Wasch, author = {Dave Reifschneider and William Wascher and David Wilcox}, title = {Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy}, institution = {Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research \& Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.,}, year = {2013}, month = {November}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.03.24} } @INCOLLECTION{reinganum89, author = {Reinganum, Jennifer}, title = {The Timing of Innovation: Research, Development and Diffusion}, booktitle = {Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume I}, publisher = {North-Holland}, year = {1989}, editor = {Schmalensee, Richard and Robert D. Willig}, chapter = {14}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Reis:design, author = {Ricardo Reis}, title = {Central Bank Design}, journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives}, year = {2013}, volume = {27}, pages = {17-44}, number = {4}, month = {Fall}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.27} } @ARTICLE{Reis:mystique, author = {Ricardo Reis}, title = {The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis}, journal = {American Economics Review Papers and Proceedings}, year = {2013}, volume = {103}, pages = {135-140}, number = {3}, month = {May}, __markedentry = {[rreis:]}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @ARTICLE{Reis:Brookings, author = {Reis, Ricardo}, title = {Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-2009}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2009}, volume = {2}, pages = {forthcoming}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.11.22} } @UNPUBLISHED{Herz:Rens, author = {Benedikt Herz Thijs van Rens}, title = {Structural Unemployment}, note = {Universitat Pompeu Fabra}, month = {July}, year = {2011}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.15} } @ARTICLE{Repullo:Suarez, author = {Repullo, Rafael and Javier Suarez}, title = {Venture Capital Finance: A Security Design Approach}, journal = {Review of Finance}, year = {2004}, volume = {8}, pages = {75-108}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.03.16} } @UNPUBLISHED{Restrepo:JMP, author = {Pascual Restrepo}, title = {Skill Mismatch and Structural Unemployment}, note = {Massachusetts Institute of Technology}, month = {November}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.01.05} } @ARTICLE{Robin_Roux, author = {Robin, Jean-Marc and Roux, S�bastien}, title = {An Equilibrium Model of the Labour Market with Endogenous Capital and Two-Sided Search}, journal = {Annals of Economics and Statistics / Annales d'�conomie et de Statistique}, year = {2002}, pages = {257-307}, number = {67/68}, abstract = {In this paper we extend the equilibrium search models of Burdett and Mortensen [1998], Burdett and Vishwanath [1988] and Mortensen and Vishwanath [1994] to allow for endogenous matching and endogenous capital determination. In our model, in order to attract a positive measure of workers, firms must produce a specific hiring effort which is by itself costly (cost of advertising posts, training new employees). Workers then draw firms in proportion to their hiring effort. Moreover, as in the model of Acemoglu and Shimer [1997], upon entering the market firms must choose a determined amount of capital which is then fixed for ever and indexes labour productivity. We characterize the equilibrium and derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions. In particular, we show that with convex or concave hiring costs, the Nash equilibrium of the equilibrium search game is such that all operating firms must choose a different amount of capital from a continuous distribution, and a one-to-one mapping exists between capital and wages. We calibrate the model on French firm data and proceed to various simulations of tax reforms. We thus show that a reform which transfers labour taxes from low wages to high wages, by reducing the monopsony power of large firms, is welfare improving: unemployment is reduced, total output is increased as well as government revenue. /// Dans cet article les mod�les de recherche d'emploi d'�quilibre de Burdett et Mortensen [1998], Burdett et Vishwanath [1988] et Mortensen et Vishwanath [1994] sont �tendus de fa�on � rendre endog�nes le processus d'appariement et la d�termination du capital des entreprises. Dans ce mod�le, pour attirer une mesure non nulle de travailleurs, les entreprises doivent fournir un effort de recherche sp�cifique qui a un certain co�t (de publicit� des postes disponibles, de formation des nouveaux salari�s,...). Les entreprises sont alors contact�es par les travailleurs en recherche d'emploi avec une probabilit� proportionnelle � leur effort de recherche. Par ailleurs, comme dans le mod�le de Acemoglu et Shimer [1997], le niveau de capital mobilis� pour la production est d�termin� de fa�on endog�ne � un niveau stationnaire et influe sur la productivit� du travail. Nous caract�risons alors l'�quilibre et d�rivons l'expression de la distribution de salaires d'�quilibre. En particulier, nous montrons que, � l'�quilibre, lorsque les co�ts de recherche sont strictement concaves ou convexes, toutes les firmes actives choisissent un niveau diff�rent de capital, tir� dans une distribution d'�quilibre non d�g�n�r�e, et que la relation entre salaire et capital au niveau des firmes est bijective. Le mod�le est ensuite estim� sur donn�es fran�aises d'entreprises et nous proc�dons � la simulation de diverses r�formes fiscales. Nous montrons ainsi qu'une r�forme consistant � all�ger le co�t des salari�s les plus faiblement r�mun�r�s am�liore le bien �tre global car elle r�duit le pouvoir de monopsone des grandes firmes: le ch�mage est r�duit, la production totale augmente, de m�me que les recettes de l'�tat.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2002 L'INSEE / GENES}, issn = {0769489X}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul. - Dec., 2002}, jstor_issuetitle = {�conom�trie de l'�valuation des politiques / The Econometrics of Policy Evalution}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {L'INSEE / GENES on behalf of ADRES}, timestamp = {2012.09.01}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/20076350} } @ARTICLE{Rochet:Chone, author = {Rochet, Jean-Charles and Chon\'e, Philippe}, title = {Ironing, Sweeping, and Multidimensional Screening}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1998}, volume = {66}, pages = {783--826}, number = {4}, abstract = {We provide existence proofs and characterization results for the multidimensional version of the multiproduct monopolist problem of Mussa and Rosen (1978). These results are also directly applicable to the multidimensional nonlinear pricing problems studied by Wilson (1993) and Armstrong (1996). We establish that bunching is robust in these multidimensional screening problems, even with very regular distributions of types. This comes from a strong conflict between participation constraints and second order incentive compatibility conditions. We consequently design a new technique, the sweeping procedure, for dealing with bunching in multidimensional contexts. This technique extends the ironing procedure of Mussa and Rosen (1978) to several dimensions. We illustrate it on two examples: we first solve a linear quadratic version of the bidimensional nonlinear pricing problem, where consumers' types are exponentially distributed. The solution involves pure bundling for consumers with low demands. The second example is the bidimensional version of the Mussa and Rosen problem when consumers' types are uniformly distributed on a square. The solution is such that the seller offers a full differentiation of products in the upper part of the qualities spectrum, but only limited choice for lower qualities. This seems to be a quite general pattern for multidimensional screening problems. The sweeping procedure is potentially applicable to other multidimensional screening problems.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1998 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 1998}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2999574} } @ARTICLE{Rodriguez96, author = {Rodriguez-Clare, Andres}, title = {Multinationals, Linkages, and Economic Development}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1996}, volume = {86}, pages = {852-73}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rodrik96, author = {Rodrik, Dani}, title = {Coordination Failures and Government Policy: A Model with Applications to East Asia and Eastern Europe}, journal = {Journal of International Economics}, year = {1996}, volume = {40}, pages = {1-22}, number = {1-2}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rogerson:indivisible, author = {Rogerson, Richard}, title = {Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, year = {1988}, volume = {21}, pages = {3-16} } @ARTICLE{Rogerson:survey, author = {Rogerson, Richard and Robert Shimer and Randall Wright}, title = {Search-Theoretic Models of the Labor Market: A Survey}, journal = jel, year = {2005}, volume = {43}, pages = {959-988}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.08.31} } @ARTICLE{Rogerson:Wallenius, author = {Rogerson, Richard and Johanna Wallenius}, title = {Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model with Taxes}, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, year = {2009}, note = {Forthcoming}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.19} } @ARTICLE{Rognlie:share, author = {Matthew Rognlie}, title = {Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share}, journal = {Broookings Papers on Economic Acdtivity}, year = {2015}, number = {2}, note = {Forthcoming}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.03.23} } @ARTICLE{Romano:RPM, author = {Romano, Richard E.}, title = {Double Moral Hazard and Resale Price Maintenance}, journal = {The RAND Journal of Economics}, year = {1994}, volume = {25}, pages = {455-466}, number = {3}, abstract = {Incentives for resale price maintenance (RPM) are studied in a wholesaler-retailer relationship in which both firms make a nonprice choice subject to moral hazard. The best attainable contract has vertical externalities in both nonprice choices and the choice of consumers' price if delegated to the retailer. RPM controls the latter externality but interacts with the other externalities as well. As a consequence, either minimum or maximum vertical price fixing can be optimal in spite of a successive-monopoly specification. Similar incentives exist for writing other variables into contract, such as the capital input of the retailer.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 The RAND Corporation}, issn = {07416261}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Autumn, 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of The RAND Corporation}, timestamp = {2012.09.22}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2555772} } @UNPUBLISHED{Romer:Bernstein, author = {Romer, Christina and Jared Bernstein}, title = {The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan}, note = {Available from otrans.3cdn.net}, month = {January}, year = {2009}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.23} } @ARTICLE{CRomer:depression, author = {Romer,Christina D.}, title = {What Ended the Great Depression?}, journal = {The Journal of Economic History}, year = {1992}, volume = {52}, pages = {757--784}, month = {12}, doi = {10.1017/S002205070001189X}, issn = {1471-6372}, issue = {04}, numpages = {28}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.04.22}, url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S002205070001189X} } @BOOK{Romer:text, title = {Advanced Macroeconomics}, publisher = {McGraw-Hill}, year = {2006}, author = {Romer, David}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.16} } @INCOLLECTION{romer90bpea, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Capital, Labor and Productivity}, booktitle = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Microeconomics 1990}, publisher = {The Brookings Institution}, year = {1990}, editor = {Martin N. Baily and Clifford Winston}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{romer89barro, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Capital Accumulation in the Theory of Long Run Growth}, booktitle = {Modern Business Cycle Theory}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1989}, editor = {Robert J. Barro}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{romer87nber, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown}, booktitle = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1987}, editor = {Stanley Fischer}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Romer93wb, author = {Paul M. Romer}, title = {Two Strategies for Economic Development: Using Ideas and Producing Ideas}, journal = {Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, 1992}, year = {1993}, pages = {63-115}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{romer89b, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 3173}, year = {1989}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{romer89c, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Measurement Error in Cross-Country Data}, note = {University of California at Berkeley working paper}, year = {1989}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{romer87aer, author = {Romer, Paul M.}, title = {Growth Based on Increasing Returns to Specialization}, journal = {American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings}, year = {1987}, volume = {77}, pages = {56-62}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rosen:discrimination, author = {Rosen, Asa}, title = {An Equilibrium Search-Matching Model of Discrimination}, journal = {European Economic Review}, year = {1997}, volume = {41}, pages = {1589-1613} } @ARTICLE{Rosenetal2005, author = {A.B. Rosen and M.B. Hamel and M.C. Weinstein and D.M. Cutler and A.M. Fendrick and S. Vijan}, title = {Cost effectiveness of full Medicare coverage of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors for beneficiaries with diabetes}, journal = {Annals of Internal Medicine}, year = {2005}, volume = {143}, pages = {89-99}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rosen88, author = {Sherwin Rosen}, title = {The Value of Changes in Life Expectancy}, journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty}, year = {1988}, volume = {1}, pages = {285-304}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rosen81, author = {Rosen, Sherwin}, title = {The Economics of Superstars}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1981}, volume = {71}, pages = {845-58}, number = {5}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{rosenberg94, title = {Exploring the Black Box: Technology, Economics, and History}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1994}, author = {Rosenberg, Nathan}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{rosenberg90, author = {Rosenberg, Nathan}, title = {Why do Firms do Basic Research (with their own money)?}, journal = {Research Policy}, year = {1990}, volume = {19}, pages = {165-174}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{rosenberg82, title = {Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1982}, author = {Rosenberg, Nathan}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{RosenbergBirdzell86, title = {How the West Grew Rich: The Economic Transformation of the Industrial World}, publisher = {Basic Books}, year = {1986}, author = {Nathan Rosenberg and L. E. Birdzell}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Ross:recovery, author = {Ross, Steve}, title = {The Recovery Theorem}, journal = {The Journal of Finance}, year = {2015}, volume = {70}, pages = {615--648}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1111/jofi.12092}, issn = {1540-6261}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12092} } @ARTICLE{Ross2013, author = {Steve Ross}, title = {The Recovery Theorem}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {2013}, note = {forthcoming}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2013.05.30} } @UNPUBLISHED{RossiWright2004, author = {Esteban Rossi-Hansberg and Mark L. J. Wright}, title = {Urban Structure and Growth}, note = {Stanford University mimeo}, year = {2004}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Rotemberg:Saloner, author = {Rotemberg, Julio J. and Garth Saloner}, title = {A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1986}, volume = {76}, pages = {390-407}, number = {3}, month = {June}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.14} } @ARTICLE{Rotemberg:Woodford, author = {Rotemberg, Julio J., and Woodford, Michael}, title = {Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity}, journal = {The Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1992}, volume = {100}, pages = {1153-1207}, number = {6}, month = {December}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @ARTICLE{Rothstein:BPEA, author = {Rothstein, Jesse}, title = {Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2011}, pages = {143--2010}, month = {Fall}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.29} } @ARTICLE{Rozeff:Yields, author = {Michael S. Rozeff}, title = {Dividend Yields Are Equity Risk Premiums}, journal = {Journal of Portfolio Management}, year = {1984}, pages = {68--75}, month = {Fall}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.09.20} } @ARTICLE{Rubinstein:alternation, author = {Rubinstein, Ariel}, title = {Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model}, journal = ema, year = {1982}, volume = {50}, pages = {97-110}, number = {1} } @ARTICLE{Rubinstein:Wolinsky, author = {Rubinstein, Ariel and Wolinsky, Asher}, title = {Equilibrium in a Market with Sequential Bargaining}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1985}, volume = {53}, pages = {pp. 1133-1150}, number = {5}, abstract = {This paper considers a market where pairs of agents who are interested in carrying out a transaction are brought together by a stochastic process and, upon meeting, initiate a bargaining process over the terms of the transaction. The basic bargaining problem is treated with the strategic approach. The paper derives the steady state equilibrium agreements; analyzes their dependence on market conditions such as the relative numbers of agents of different types; and discusses their relations with the competitive equilibrium outcome and other results in the search equilibrium literature.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1985 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Sep., 1985}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2014.08.20}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1911015} } @ARTICLE{Rudebusch:risk, author = {Glenn D. Rudebusch}, title = {The Fed's Interest Rate Risk}, journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter}, year = {2011}, month = {April} } @UNPUBLISHED{Russell2004, author = {Thomas Russell}, title = {On Harrod Neutral Technical Change: Uzawa Revisited}, note = {Santa Clara University working paper, December}, year = {2004}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Ruttan2001, title = {Technology, Growth, and Development}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {2001}, author = {Vernon W. Ruttan}, addres = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Saad:sparse, title = {Iterative Methods for Sparse Linear Systems}, publisher = {Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics}, year = {2003}, author = {Yousef Saad}, edition = {second}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.04.14} } @UNPUBLISHED{Sahin2011, author = {Sahin, Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l and Joseph Song and Giorgio Topa and Giovanni L. Violante}, title = {Measuring Mismatch in the U.S. Labor Market}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of New York http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/violante/Workingpapers/USmismatch\_v11.pdf}, month = {March}, year = {2011}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.04.21} } @UNPUBLISHED{Saks:Wozniak, author = {Raven E. Saks and Abigail Wozniak}, title = {Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration}, note = {Federal Reserve Board}, month = {January}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.07.26} } @UNPUBLISHED{SalaiMartin97b, author = {Xavier {Sala-i-Martin}}, title = {I Just Ran Four Million Regressions}, note = {NBER Working Paper 6252}, year = {1997}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Sala90, author = {Xavier {Sala-i-Martin}}, title = {Lecture Notes on Economic Growth}, note = {NBER Working Paper No. 3563}, year = {1990}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{saloner90, author = {Saloner, Garth}, title = {Economic Issues in Computer Interface Standardization}, journal = {Econ. Innov. New Techn.}, year = {1990}, volume = {1}, pages = {135-156}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Samuelson:bargaining, author = {Samuelson, William}, title = {Bargaining under Asymmetric Information}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1984}, volume = {52}, pages = {pp. 995-1005}, number = {4}, abstract = {This paper investigates two-person bargaining under incomplete information where one player has strictly better information about the potential value of the transaction than the other. The implications of informational barriers to trade are explored, and optimal bargaining mechanisms are characterized.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1984 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 1984}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1911195} } @ARTICLE{Santos:Veronesi, author = {Santos, Tano and Veronesi, Pietro}, title = {Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns}, journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, year = {2006}, volume = {19}, pages = {1-44}, number = {1}, abstract = {We propose a novel economic mechanism that generates stock return predictability in both the time series and the cross-section. Investors' income has two sources, wages and dividends that grow stochastically over time. As a consequence the fraction of total income produced by wages fluctuates depending on economic conditions. We show that the risk premium that investors require to hold stocks varies with these fluctuations. A regression of stock returns on lagged values of the labor income to consumption ratio produces statistically significant coefficients and large adjusted R2s. Tests of the model's cross-sectional predictions on the set of 25 Fama-French portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market are also met with considerable support.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2006 Oxford University Press}, issn = {08939454}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Spring, 2006}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press. Sponsor: The Society for Financial Studies. }, timestamp = {2013.04.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3598030} } @STANDARD{Sargent:BigInflations, title = {The Ends of Four Big Inflations}, author = {Thomas J. Sargent}, address = {Chicago}, year = {1982}, note = {in Hall, Robert E., Editor,\emph{ Inflation: Causes and Effects}, University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research}, timestamp = {2016.03.29} } @ARTICLE{10.2307/1991403, author = {Thomas J. Sargent}, title = {Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {1972}, volume = {4}, pages = {74-97}, number = {1}, issn = {00222879, 15384616}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {[Wiley, Ohio State University Press]}, timestamp = {2016.03.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1991403} } @ARTICLE{Sargent:1971, author = {Thomas J. Sargent}, title = {A Note on the ``Accelerationist" Controversy}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {1971}, volume = {3}, pages = {721-725}, number = {3}, issn = {00222879, 15384616}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {[Wiley, Ohio State University Press]}, timestamp = {2016.03.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1991369} } @ARTICLE{NYT:Limbo, author = {Susan Saulny}, title = {When Living in Limbo Avoids Living on the Street}, journal = {New York Times}, year = {2012}, volume = {CLCI}, pages = {11}, number = {55,700}, month = {March 4}, howpublished = {New York Times}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.03.04} } @UNPUBLISHED{Schaal:uncertainty, author = {Schaal, Edouard}, title = {Uncertainty and Unemployment}, note = {New York University}, month = {August}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.10.09} } @INCOLLECTION{Schelling68, author = {Thomas C. Schelling}, title = {The Life You Save May Be Your Own}, booktitle = {Problems in Public Expenditure Analysis}, publisher = {Brookings Institution}, year = {1968}, editor = {Samuel B. Chase, Jr.}, pages = {127-161}, address = {Washington D.C.}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Scherer99, title = {New Perspectives on Economic Growth and Technological Innovation}, publisher = {Brookings Institution Press}, year = {1999}, author = {F.M. Scherer}, address = {Washington, DC}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{scherer84, author = {Scherer, Frederic M.}, title = {Using Linked Patent and R\&D Data to Measure Interindustry Technology Flows}, booktitle = {R\&D, Patents and Productivity}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1984}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, pages = {417-464}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Schmidt:Convertible, author = {Schmidt, Klaus M.}, title = {Convertible Securities and Venture Capital Finance}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, year = {2003}, volume = {58}, pages = {1139}, number = {3}, month = {June}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.03.16} } @ARTICLE{Schmitz2005, author = {Schmitz, James A.}, title = {{What Determines Productivity? Lessons from the Dramatic Recovery of the US and Canadian Iron Ore Industries following their Early 1980s Crisis}}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2005}, volume = {113}, pages = {582-625}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {UChicago Press}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Schmookler66, title = {Invention and Economic Growth}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1966}, author = {Jacob Schmookler}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Schoefer:finchannel, author = {Benjamin Schoefer}, title = {The Financial Channel of Wage Rigidity}, note = {Department of Economics, UC Berkeley}, month = {August}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.09.20} } @ARTICLE{Scholes:Williams, author = {Myron Scholes and Joseph Williams}, title = {Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data}, journal = {Journal of Financial Economics}, year = {1977}, volume = {5}, pages = {309-327}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1016/0304-405X(77)90041-1}, issn = {0304-405X}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.04.10}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304405X77900411} } @UNPUBLISHED{SchragScotchmer93, author = {Joel Schrag and Suzanne Scotchmer}, title = {The Self-Reinforcing Nature of Crime}, note = {Working Paper 93-11, Center for the Study of Law and Society, School of Law, University of California, Berkeley}, year = {1993}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Schulhofer:Wohl, author = {Sam Schulhofer-Wohl}, title = {Negative Equity Does Not Reduce Homeowners' Mobility}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {2011}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {16701}, month = {January}, abstract = {Some commentators have argued that the housing crisis may harm labor markets because homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth are less likely to move to places that have productive job opportunities. I show that, in the available data, negative equity does not make homeowners less mobile. In fact, homeowners who have negative equity are slightly more likely to move than homeowners who have positive equity. Ferreira, Gyourko and Tracy's (2010) contrasting result that negative equity reduces mobility arises because they systematically drop some negative-equity homeowners' moves from the data.}, owner = {Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2011.07.26}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w16701} } @ARTICLE{Schusteretal98, author = {Mark A. Schuster and Elizabeth A. McGlynn and Robert H. Brook}, title = {How Good is the Quality of Health Care in the United States}, journal = {The Milbank Quarterly}, year = {1998}, volume = {76}, pages = {517-563}, number = {4}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{ScottMorton97, author = {Fiona {Scott Morton}}, title = {The Strategic Response of Pharmaceutical Firms to the Medicaid Most-Favored-Customer Rules}, journal = {RAND Journal of Economics}, year = {1997}, volume = {28}, pages = {269-290}, number = {2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Scott-Morton:Zettelmeyer, author = {Scott-Morton, Fiona and Florian Zettelmeyer and Jorge Silva-Risso}, title = {What Matters for Price Negotiation: Evidence from the U.S. Auto Retailing industry}, note = {Haas School of Business Working Paper}, year = {2007}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Scott-Morton:online, author = {Scott-Morton, Fiona and Florian Zettelmeyer and Jorge Silva-Risso}, title = {Consumer Information and Discrimination: Does the Internet Affect the Pricing of New Cars to Women and Minorities?}, journal = {Quantitative Marketing and Economics}, year = {2003}, volume = {1}, pages = {65-92}, number = {1}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Sedlacek:ME, author = {Petr Sedl\acute{a}\check{c}ek}, title = {Match Efficiency and Firms' Hiring Standards }, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics }, year = {2014}, volume = {62}, pages = {123 - 133}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.08.16} } @ARTICLE{Segerstrom2007, author = {Paul S. Segerstrom}, title = {Intel Economics}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {2007}, volume = {48}, pages = {247-280}, number = {1}, month = {02}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/ier/iecrev/v48y2007i1p247-280.html} } @UNPUBLISHED{segerstrom95, author = {Segerstrom, Paul S.}, title = {Endogenous Growth Without Scale Effects}, note = {Michigan State University mimeo}, year = {1995}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{SeldenSong94, author = {Selden, T.M. and Song, D.}, title = {{Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution}}, journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management}, year = {1994}, volume = {27}, pages = {147-162}, number = {2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Seo:Wachter, author = {Sang Byung Seo and Jessica A. Wachter}, title = {Do Rare Events Explain CDX Tranche Spreads?}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2016}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {22723}, month = {October}, abstract = {We investigate whether a model with a time-varying probability of economic disaster can explain the pricing of collateralized debt obligations, both prior to and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Namely, we examine the pricing of tranches on the CDX, an index of credit default swaps on large investment-grade firms. CDX senior tranches are essentially deep out-of-the money put options because they do not incur losses until a large fraction of previously stable firms default. As such, these products clearly reflect the market’s assessment of rare-event risk. We find that the model can simultaneously explain prices on CDX senior tranches and on equity index options at parameter values that are consistent with the equity premium and with aggregate stock market volatility. Our results demonstrate the importance of beliefs about rare disasters for asset prices, even during periods of relative economic stability.}, doi = {10.3386/w22723}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.11.27}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w22723} } @UNPUBLISHED{ShapiroShapiroWilcox99, author = {Irving Shapiro and Matthew D. Shapiro and David W. Wilcox}, title = {Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery}, note = {University of Michigan mimeo}, year = {1999}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{ShapiroSlemrod:2009, author = {Shapiro, Matthew D. and Joel Slemrod}, title = {Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?}, journal = {American Econmic Review Papers and Proceedings}, year = {2009}, volume = {99}, pages = {374-379}, number = {2}, month = {May}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @ARTICLE{ShapiroSlemrod:2003, author = {Shapiro, Matthew D. and Joel Slemrod}, title = {Consumer Responses to Tax Rebates}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {2003}, volume = {93}, pages = {381-396}, number = {1}, month = {March}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @ARTICLE{ShapiroSlemrod:1995, author = {Shapiro, Matthew D. and Joel Slemrod}, title = {Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {1995}, volume = {85}, pages = {274-283}, number = {1}, month = {March}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @UNPUBLISHED{ShastryWeil2002, author = {Gaury K. Shastry and David N. Weil}, title = {How Much of Cross-Country Income Variation is Explained by Health?}, note = {Brown University working paper, September}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Shavell:PA, author = {Shavell, Steven}, title = {Risk Sharing and Incentives in the Principal and Agent Relationship}, journal = {The Bell Journal of Economics}, year = {1979}, volume = {10}, pages = {55-73}, number = {1}, abstract = {This article studies arrangements concerning the payment of a fee by a principal to his agent. For such an arrangement, or fee schedule, to be Pareto optimal, it must implicitly serve to allocate the risk attaching to the outcome of the agent's activity in a satisfactory way and to create appropriate incentives for the agent in his activity. Pareto-optimal fee schedules are described in two cases: when the principal has knowledge only of the outcome of the agent's activity and when he has as well (possibly imperfect) information about the agent's activity. In each case, characteristics of Pareto-optimal fee schedules are related to the attitudes toward risk of the principal and of the agent.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1979 The RAND Corporation}, issn = {0361915X}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Spring, 1979}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {The RAND Corporation}, timestamp = {2012.09.19}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3003319} } @ARTICLE{Shaw:risk, author = {Shaw, Kathryn L.}, title = {An Empirical Analysis of Risk Aversion and Income Growth}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, year = {1996}, volume = {14}, pages = {pp. 626-653}, number = {4}, abstract = {Risk aversion enters many theoretical models of human capital investment, but attitudes toward risk have not been incorporated in empirical models of human capital investment. This article develops a model of the joint investment in financial wealth and human wealth to show that human capital investment is an inverse function of the degree of relative risk aversion. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, I find that wage growth is positively correlated with preferences for risk taking. More-educated individuals are also more likely to be risk takers, thus risk taking explains a portion of the returns to education.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1996 The University of Chicago}, issn = {0734306X}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Oct., 1996}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press on behalf of the Society of Labor Economists and the NORC at the University of Chicago}, timestamp = {2014.09.29}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2535442} } @ARTICLE{ShepardZeckhauser84, author = {Donald S. Shepard and Richard J. Zeckhauser}, title = {Survival versus Consumption}, journal = {Management Science}, year = {1984}, volume = {30}, pages = {423-439}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Shimer:InsAndOuts, author = {Robert Shimer}, title = {Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment}, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics}, year = {2012}, volume = {15}, pages = {127 - 148}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1016/j.red.2012.02.001}, issn = {1094-2025}, keywords = {Gross worker flows}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.04.17}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202512000063} } @BOOK{Shimer:book, title = {Labor Markets and Business Cycles}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {2010}, author = {Shimer, Robert}, series = {CREI Lectures in Macroeconomics}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.06.23} } @UNPUBLISHED{Shimer:fixedwage, author = {Shimer, Robert}, title = {Wage Rigidities and Jobless Recoveries}, note = {Department of Economics, University of Chicago}, month = {November}, year = {2010}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.11.26} } @ARTICLE{Shimer:wedge, author = {Shimer, Robert}, title = {Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2008}, volume = {1}, pages = {280-297}, number = {1}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.01.09} } @ARTICLE{Shimer:unemp, author = {Shimer, Robert}, title = {The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies}, journal = aer, year = {2005}, volume = {95}, pages = {24-49}, number = {1} } @ARTICLE{Shimer:stickywage, author = {Shimer, Robert}, title = {The Consequences of Rigid Wages in Search Models}, journal = {Journal of the European Economic Association}, year = {2004}, volume = {2}, pages = {469-479}, number = {2/3}, abstract = {The standard theory of equilibrium unemployment, the Mortensen-Pissarides search and matching model, cannot explain the magnitude of the business cycle fluctuations in two of its central elements, unemployment and vacancies. Modifying the model to make the present value of wages unresponsive to current labor market conditions amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and vacancies by an order of magnitude, significantly improving the performance of the model. Despite this, the welfare consequences of such rigid wages is negligible.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2004 The MIT Press}, issn = {15424766}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Apr. - May, 2004}, jstor_issuetitle = {Papers and Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob}, publisher = {The MIT Press on behalf of European Economic Association}, timestamp = {2011.03.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/40004920} } @UNPUBLISHED{Shimer:OJS, author = {Shimer, Robert}, title = {Dynamics in a Model of On-the-Job Search}, note = {Department of Economics, University of Chicago}, month = {June}, year = {2003} } @ARTICLE{Shroder:sunshine, author = {Shroder, Mark D.}, title = {The Value of Sunshine Cure: The Efficacy of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act Disclosure Strategy}, journal = {Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research}, year = {2007}, volume = {9}, pages = {73-92}, number = {1}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @UNPUBLISHED{Silva:Toledoprepub, author = {Silva, Jose A. and Manuel Toledo}, title = {Labor Turnover Costs and the Cyclical Behavior of Vacancies and Unemployment}, note = {Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid}, month = {February}, year = {2008}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.08.07} } @ARTICLE{Silva:Toledo, author = {Silva,Jos\'{e} Ignacio and Toledo,Manuel}, title = {Labor Turnover Costs and the Cyclical Behavior of Vacancies and Unemployment}, journal = {Macroeconomic Dynamics}, year = {2009}, volume = {13}, pages = {76--96}, month = {April}, doi = {10.1017/S1365100509080122}, issn = {1469-8056}, issue = {Supplement S1}, numpages = {21}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.04.05}, url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S1365100509080122} } @BOOK{Simon98, title = {The Ultimate Resource 2}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {1998}, author = {Julian L. Simon}, address = {Princeton, NJ}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Simon86, title = {Theory of Population and Economic Growth}, publisher = {Basil Blackwell}, year = {1986}, author = {Julian L. Simon}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Simon81, title = {The Ultimate Resource}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {1981}, author = {Julian L. Simon}, address = {Princeton, NJ}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Simon:ads, title = {Issues in the Economics of Advertising}, publisher = {University of Illinois Press}, year = {1970}, author = {Julian L. Simon}, address = {Urbana}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.10.17} } @ARTICLE{Sims:fiscaltheory, author = {Sims, Christopher A.}, title = {A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy}, journal = {Economic Theory}, year = {1994}, volume = {4}, pages = {381-399}, number = {3}, abstract = {A representative-agent model with money holdings motivated by transactions costs, a fiscal authority that taxes and issues debt, no production, and a convenient functional form for agents' utility is presented. The model can be solved analytically, and illustrates the dependence of price determination on fiscal policy, the possibility of indeterminacy, even stochastic explosion, of the price level in the face of a monetary policy that holds M fixed, and the possibility of a unique, stable price level in the face of a monetary policy that simply pegs the nominal interest rate at an arbitrary level.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1994 Springer}, issn = {09382259}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Apr., 1994}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Springer}, timestamp = {2012.04.06}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25054771} } @UNPUBLISHED{Skinneretal2001, author = {Jonathan Skinner and Elliott Fisher and John E. Wennberg}, title = {The Efficiency of Medicare}, note = {NBER Working Paper 8395}, month = {July}, year = {2001}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Slemrodetal1997, author = {Joel Slemrod and Charles Christian and Rebecca London and Jonathan A. Parker}, title = {April 15th Syndrome}, journal = {Economic Inquiry}, year = {1997}, volume = {35}, pages = {695-709}, month = {October}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{Smets:AER, author = {Smets, Frank and Wouters, Rafael}, title = {Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2007}, volume = {97}, pages = {586-606}, number = {3}, abstract = {Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macroeconomic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model, we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?}, copyright = {Copyright � 2007 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 2007}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2011.09.07}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/30035013} } @ARTICLE{Smets:Wouters, author = {Smets, Frank and Raf Wouters}, title = {An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area}, journal = {Journal of the European Economic Association}, year = {2003}, volume = {1}, pages = {1123-1175}, number = {5}, month = {September}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.24} } @BOOK{Sobel95, title = {Longitude: Story of A Lone Genius Who Solved the Greatest Scientific Problem of His Time}, publisher = {Walker \& Co.}, year = {1995}, author = {Dava Sobel}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{SolonBarksyParker1994, author = {Solon, Gary and Barsky, Robert and Parker, Jonathan A}, title = {Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?}, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {1994}, volume = {109}, pages = {1-25}, number = {1}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.07.02} } @ARTICLE{SolowJL1986, author = {John L. Solow}, title = {Interindustry Flows and the Incidence of the Corporate Income Tax}, journal = {Journal of Public Economics}, year = {1986}, volume = {30}, pages = {359-368}, number = {3}, month = {August}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Solow:Royer, title = {The Labor Market as a Social Institution}, publisher = {Basil Blackwell}, year = {1990}, editor = {John M. Letiche}, author = {Solow, Robert M.}, pages = {84-87}, series = {The Royer Lectures}, address = {Cambridge, Massachusetts}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.01.21} } @INCOLLECTION{Solow99, author = {Robert M. Solow}, title = {Neoclassical Growth Theory}, booktitle = {Handbook of Macroeconomics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {1999}, editor = {John Taylor and Michael Woodford}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Solow2000, title = {Growth Theory: An Exposition}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {2000}, author = {Robert M. Solow}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Solow:residual, author = {Robert M. Solow}, title = {Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function}, journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics}, year = {1957}, volume = {39}, pages = {312-320}, number = {3}, issn = {00346535, 15309142}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {The MIT Press}, timestamp = {2016.06.06}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1926047} } @ARTICLE{Song:Wachter, author = {Jae Song and Till von Wachter}, title = {Long-Term Nonemployment and Job Displacement}, journal = {Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium}, year = {2014}, pages = {315--388}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.01.05} } @UNPUBLISHED{Sorkin:JMP, author = {Isaac Sorkin}, title = {Ranking Firms Using Revealed Preference}, note = {University of Michigan}, month = {October}, year = {2015}, institution = {University of Michigan}, type = {Manuscript} } @ARTICLE{SornetteZaj99, author = {Didier Sornette and Daniel Zajdenweber}, title = {The economic return of research: the Pareto law and its implications}, journal = {European Physical Journal B}, year = {1999}, volume = {8}, pages = {653-664}, number = {4}, note = {http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/cond-mat/9809366}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Souleles:refunds, author = {Souleles, Nicholas S.}, title = {The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds}, journal = {American Econmic Review}, year = {1999}, volume = {89}, pages = {947-958}, number = {4}, month = {September}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.08.22} } @ARTICLE{SpencerYeWSJ2008, author = {Jane Spencer and Juliet Ye}, title = {Toxic Factories Take Toll On China's Labor Force}, journal = {The Wall Street Journal}, year = {2008}, pages = {A1}, month = {January 15}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{Spilimbergo:Fiscal, author = {Spilimbergo, Antonio, and Symansky, Steve, and Schindler, Martin}, title = {Fiscal Multipliers}, institution = {IMF Staff Position Note}, year = {2009}, type = {May}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.23} } @ARTICLE{Starr1969, author = {Starr, Chauncey}, title = {{Social Benefit versus Technological Risk}}, journal = {Science}, year = {1969}, volume = {165}, pages = {1232-1238}, number = {3899}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Stein:handbook, author = {Stein, Jeremy}, title = {Agency, Information, and Corporate Investment}, booktitle = {Handbook of the Economics of Finance}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2003}, editor = {Constantinides,G.M. and M. Harris and R. Stulz}, chapter = {2}, pages = {109-163}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.12.04} } @INCOLLECTION{Stein2003111, author = {Jeremy C. Stein}, title = {Chapter 2 Agency, information and corporate investment}, booktitle = {Corporate Finance}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2003}, editor = {G.M. Constantinides, M. Harris and R.M. Stulz}, volume = {1, Part 1}, series = {Handbook of the Economics of Finance}, pages = {111-165}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01006-9}, issn = {1574-0102}, keywords = {external capital markets}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.08.03}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7GX8-4DXJCWN-S/2/a2484918fea41e119154e8f277e852d1} } @ARTICLE{Steinhaus:division, author = {Steinhaus, H.}, title = {Sur la division des corps mat\'eriels en parties}, journal = {Bull. Acad. Polon. Sci. Cl. III.}, year = {1956}, volume = {4}, pages = {801-804 (1957)}, mrclass = {52.0X}, mrnumber = {0090073 (19,763e)}, mrreviewer = {M. Kond{\^o}}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.11.19} } @ARTICLE{Stella:CBstrength, author = {Peter Stella}, title = {Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency and Policy Credibility}, journal = {IMF Staff Papers}, year = {2007}, volume = {52}, pages = {335--365}, number = {2}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @BOOKLET{Stella:CBcapital, title = {Do Central Banks Need Capital?}, author = {Peter Stella}, howpublished = {International Monetary Fund Working Paper 97-83}, year = {1997}, owner = {ricardoreis}, timestamp = {2015.03.25} } @ARTICLE{Aaronson:LFPR, author = {Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher Smith, William Wascher}, title = {Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects}, journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity}, year = {2014}, pages = {197-255}, abstract = {Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in participation reflects cyclical weakness rather than structural factors, our overall assessment is that much of the decline is structural in nature. As a result, while we believe some of the participation rate's current low level is indicative of labor market slack, we do not expect the rate to substantially increase from current levels as labor market conditions continue to improve.}, issn = {00072303, 15334465}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Brookings Institution Press}, timestamp = {2016.06.19}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/43233868} } @ARTICLE{Stevens:MultJobLoss, author = {Ann Huff Stevens}, title = {Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses}, journal = {Journal of Labor Economics}, year = {1997}, volume = {15}, pages = {165-188}, number = {1}, abstract = {This article examines the long-term wage and earnings losses of displaced workers, using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Consistent with previous research, I find that the effects of displacement are quite persistent, with earnings and wages remaining approximately 9% below their expected levels 6 or more years after displacement. I then show that much of this persistence can be explained by additional job losses in the years following an initial displacement. Workers who avoid additional displacements have earnings and wage losses of 1% and 4% 6 or more years after job loss.}, issn = {0734306X, 15375307}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {[University of Chicago Press, Society of Labor Economists, NORC at the University of Chicago]}, timestamp = {2016.12.01}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2535319} } @ARTICLE{Stigler:labor, author = {Stigler, George J.}, title = {Information in the Labor Market}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1962}, volume = {70}, pages = {94-105}, number = {5, Part 2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @ARTICLE{Stigler:search, author = {Stigler, George J.}, title = {The Economics of Information}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {1961}, volume = {69}, pages = {213-225}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2008.08.11} } @UNPUBLISHED{stiglitz92, author = {Stiglitz, Joseph E.}, title = {Endogenous Growth and Cycles}, note = {Stanford University working paper}, year = {1992}, organization = {Stanford University}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Stiglitz:Weiss, author = {Stiglitz, Joseph E. and Weiss, Andrew}, title = {Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {1981}, volume = {71}, pages = {393-410}, number = {3}, copyright = {Copyright © 1981 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {primary_article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jun., 1981}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2010.08.03}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1802787} } @ARTICLE{Stock:KC, author = {James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson}, title = {Modeling Inflation after the Crisis}, journal = {Proceedings of the Economic Policy Symposium}, year = {2010}, pages = {172---220}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City}, abstract = {In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed policy and credibility. We propose a tightly parameterized model in which the deviation of inflation from a stochastic trend (which we interpret as long-term expected inflation) reacts stably to a new gap measure, which we call the unemployment recession gap. The short-term response of inflation to an increase in this gap is stable, but the long-term response depends on the resilience, or anchoring, of trend inflation. Dynamic simulations (given the path of unemployment) match the paths of inflation during post-1960 downturns, including the current one.}, owner = {Bobhall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2012.02.26}, type = {Working Paper}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w16488} } @ARTICLE{Stock:forecasting, author = {Stock, Jahmes H. and Mark W. Watson}, title = {Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Output Prices}, journal = {Journal of Economic Literature}, year = {2003}, volume = {41}, pages = {788-829}, number = {September}, owner = {User}, timestamp = {2009.11.28} } @ARTICLE{Stokey2001, author = {Nancy L. Stokey}, title = {A Quantitative Model of the British Industrial Revolution, 1780-1850}, journal = conroc, year = {2001}, volume = {55}, owner = {Hall}, page = {55-109}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Stokey98, author = {Stokey, Nancy L.}, title = {{Are there Limits to Growth?}}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {1998}, pages = {1-31}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{stokey92, author = {Stokey, Nancy L.}, title = {R\&D and Economic Growth}, note = {University of Chicago mimeo}, month = {July}, year = {1992}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Strayer:Eslami, author = {Mark Strayer and Esa Eslami and Joshua Leftin}, title = {Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Households: Fiscal Year 2011}, note = {United States Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Report No. SNAP-12-CHAR}, month = {November}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2014.05.22} } @ARTICLE{Sullivan:To, author = {Paul Sullivan and Ted To}, title = {Search and Nonwage Job Characteristics}, journal = {The Journal of Human Resources}, year = {2014}, volume = {49}, pages = {472-507}, number = {2} } @ARTICLE{sveikauskas86, author = {Sveikauskas, Leo}, title = {The Contribution of R\&D to Productivity Growth}, journal = {Monthly Labor Review}, year = {1986}, pages = {16-20}, month = {March}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Bureau of Labor Statistics}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{swan56, author = {Swan, Trevor W.}, title = {Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation}, journal = {The Economic Record}, year = {1956}, volume = {32}, pages = {334-361}, month = {November}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @TECHREPORT{syverson:TFP, author = {Chad Syverson}, title = {Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the U.S. Productivity Slowdown}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research,}, year = {2016}, type = {Working Paper}, number = {21974}, month = {February}, abstract = {The U.S. has been experiencing a slowdown in measured labor productivity growth since 2004. A number of commentators and researchers have suggested that this slowdown is at least in part illusory, because real output data have failed to capture the new and better products of the past decade. I conduct four disparate analyses, each of which offers empirical challenges to this “mismeasurement hypothesis.” First, the productivity slowdown has occurred in dozens of countries, and its size is unrelated to measures of the countries’ consumption or production intensities of information and communication technologies (ICTs, the type of goods most often cited as sources of mismeasurement). Second, estimates from the existing research literature of the surplus created by internet-linked digital technologies fall far short of the $2.7 trillion or more of “missing output” resulting from the productivity growth slowdown. The largest—by some distance—is less than one-third of the purportedly mismeasured GDP. Third, if measurement problems were to account for even a modest share of this missing output, the properly measured output and productivity growth rates of industries that produce and service ICTs would have to have been multiples of their measured growth in the data. Fourth, while measured gross domestic income has been on average higher than measured gross domestic product since 2004—perhaps indicating workers are being paid to make products that are given away for free or at highly discounted prices—this trend actually began before the productivity slowdown and moreover reflects unusually high capital income rather than labor income (i.e., profits are unusually high). In combination, these complementary facets of evidence suggest that the reasonable prima facie case for the mismeasurement hypothesis faces real hurdles when confronted with the data.}, doi = {10.3386/w21974}, owner = {Bob Hall}, series = {Working Paper Series}, timestamp = {2016.06.08}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w21974} } @ARTICLE{Syverson2004, author = {Chad Syverson}, title = {Market Structure and Productivity: A Concrete Example}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2004}, volume = {112}, pages = {1181-1222}, number = {6}, month = {December}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{TaylorHudson72, title = {World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators}, publisher = {Yale University Press}, year = {1972}, author = {Charles L. Taylor and Michael C. Hudson}, address = {New Haven}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{TempleURL, author = {Jonathan Temple}, title = {Economic Growth Resources}, note = {http://www.bris.ac.uk\-/Depts/Economics/Growth/. This is the most thorough collection of growth resources available, including a good list of references and surveys}, month = {University of Bristol}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{terleckyj80, author = {Terleckyj, Nestor E.}, title = {Direct and Indirect Effects of Industrial Research and Development on the Productivity Growth of Industries}, booktitle = {New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, year = {1980}, editor = {Kendrick, John W. and Vaccara, Beatrice N.}, chapter = {6}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Tertilt2005, author = {Michele Tertilt}, title = {Polygyny, Fertility, and Savings}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2005}, volume = {113}, pages = {1341-1371}, number = {6}, month = {12}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{TheilChen95, author = {Henri Theil and Dongling Chen}, title = {The Equatorial Grand Canyon}, journal = {De Economist}, year = {1995}, volume = {143}, pages = {317-327}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Thomas:smoothing, author = {Thomas, Jonathan and Tim Worrall}, title = {Self-Enforcing Wage Contracts}, journal = {Review of Economic Studies}, year = {1988}, volume = {55}, pages = {541-553}, number = {4}, month = {October} } @ARTICLE{Thorpeetal2004, author = {Kenneth E. Thorpe and Curtis S. Florence and Peter Joski}, title = {Which Medical Conditions Account for the Rise in Health Care Spending?}, journal = {Health Affairs (Web Exclusive)}, year = {2004}, pages = {W4-437-W4-445}, note = {August 25}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Tian95, author = {Guoqiang Tian}, title = {A Theory of Endogenous Ownership Arrangements in Imperfect Market and Transitional Economies}, note = {Working Paper 9512, Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A\&M University}, year = {1995}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{tirole88, title = {The Theory of Industrial Organization}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1988}, author = {Tirole, Jean}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Tjaden:Wellschmied, author = {Volker Tjaden and Felix Wellschmied}, title = {Quantifying the Contribution of Search to Wage Inequality}, journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, year = {2014}, volume = {6}, pages = {134-161}, number = {1} } @ARTICLE{Tobin:PA, author = {James Tobin}, title = {Inflation and Unemployment}, journal = {The American Economic Review}, year = {1972}, volume = {62}, pages = {1-18}, number = {1/2}, issn = {00028282}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2017.01.12}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1821468} } @UNPUBLISHED{Tobleretal95, author = {Waldo Tobler and Uwe Deichmann and Jon Gottsegen and Kelly Maloy}, title = {The Global Demography Project}, note = {NCGIA Technical Report TR-95-6, Department of Geography, U.C. Santa Barbara}, month = {April}, year = {1995}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Toda:Walsh, author = {Alexis Akira Toda and Kieran Walsh}, title = {The Equity Premium and the One Percent}, note = {Univiersity of California, San Diego}, month = {August}, year = {2016}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.11.27} } @ARTICLE{Townsend:CSV, author = {Robert M. Townsend}, title = {Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification}, journal = {Journal of Economic Theory}, year = {1979}, volume = {21}, pages = {265-293}, number = {2}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/0022-0531(79)90031-0}, issn = {0022-0531}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.11.23}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WJ3-4CYGGS0-1XB/2/d8e16c15a07f6c1c812d6396822a2ebe} } @ARTICLE{Trejo:Quantitative, author = {Trejo, Kimball M.}, title = {The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Models}, journal = {Journal of Money Credit and Banking}, year = {1995}, volume = {27}, pages = {1241-1277}, month = {November, Part 2}, owner = {CPace}, timestamp = {2009.07.31} } @INCOLLECTION{Triplett99, author = {Jack E. Triplett}, title = {What's Different about Health: Human Repair and Car Repair in National Accounts and in National Health Accounts}, booktitle = {Medical Care Output and Producitivity}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {forthcoming}, editor = {Ernst Berndt and David Cutler}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{TriplettBosworth00, author = {Jack E. Triplett and Barry P. Bosworth}, title = {Productivity in the Services Sector}, note = {Brookings Institution mimeo}, year = {2000}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Tuomala90, title = {Optimal Income Tax and Redistribution}, publisher = {Clarendon Press}, year = {1990}, author = {M. Tuomala}, address = {Oxford}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Census:AHS, author = {{U.S. Census Department}}, title = {American Housing Survey}, note = {census.gov/hhes/ www/housing/ahs/ ahs01\_2000wts/tab315.html.}, year = {2001}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.05.08} } @UNPUBLISHED{USPTO2001, author = {{U.S. Patent and Trademark Office}}, title = {U.S. Patent Activity, 1790--1999}, note = {http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/\-taf/h\verb+_+counts.htm}, year = {2001}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Uhlig:AssetPrices, author = {Uhlig, Harald}, title = {Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2007}, volume = {97}, pages = {239-243}, number = {2}, copyright = {Copyright � 2007 American Economic Association}, issn = {00028282}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {May, 2007}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2013.04.17}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/30034453} } @TECHREPORT{UNUrbanization2007, author = {{United Nations}}, title = {World Urbanization Prospects 2007}, institution = {Department of Economic and Social Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{UNNA94, title = {National Accounts Statistics: Main Aggregates and Detailed Tables, 1992}, year = {1994}, author = {{United Nations}}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{UNIS93, title = {Industrial Statistics Yearbook, 1991}, year = {1993}, author = {{United Nations}}, volume = {1}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Usher73, author = {Daniel Usher}, title = {An Imputation to the Measure of Economic Growth for Changes in Life Expectancy}, booktitle = {The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance}, publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, year = {1973}, editor = {M. Moss}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{uzawa65, author = {Uzawa, Hirofumi}, title = {Optimum Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth}, journal = {International Economic Review}, year = {1965}, volume = {6}, pages = {18-31}, month = {January}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Valletta:Kuang, author = {Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang}, title = {Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits}, journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter}, year = {2010}, pages = {1-4}, month = {April}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.15} } @ARTICLE{Valletta:Kuang2010b, author = {Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang}, title = {Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?}, journal = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter}, year = {2010}, pages = {1-5}, month = {November}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.08.29} } @ARTICLE{bins:bergen, author = {{van Binsbergen}, Jules and Brandt, Michael and Koijen, Ralph}, title = {On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2012}, volume = {102}, pages = {1596-1618}, number = {4}, month = {September}, doi = {10.1257/aer.102.4.1596}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2013.05.31}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.102.4.1596} } @ARTICLE{Bins:Hueskes, author = {{van Binsbergen}, Jules and Wouter Hueskes and Ralph Koijen and Evert Vrugt}, title = {Equity Yields}, journal = {Journal of Financial Economics }, year = {2013}, volume = {110}, pages = {503 - 519}, number = {3}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.08.017}, issn = {0304-405X}, owner = {Family}, timestamp = {2013.11.28}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X13002316} } @ARTICLE{Veracierto:ME, author = {Marcelo Veracierto}, title = {Worker flows and matching efficiency}, journal = {Economic Perspectives}, year = {2011}, pages = {147-169}, month = {4th quarter}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.05.17} } @UNPUBLISHED{Veracierto:cycle, author = {Veracierto, Marcelo}, title = {On the Cyclical Behavior of Employment, Unemployment and Labor Force Participation}, note = {Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago}, month = {September}, year = {2003} } @ARTICLE{ViscusiAldy2003, author = {W. Kip Viscusi and Joseph E. Aldy}, title = {The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World}, journal = {Journal of Risk and Uncertainty}, year = {2003}, volume = {27}, pages = {5-76}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Vollrath2009, author = {Vollrath, Dietrich}, title = {How Important are Dual Economy Effects for Aggregate Productivity?}, journal = {Journal of Development Economics}, year = {2009}, volume = {88}, pages = {325-334}, number = {2}, month = {March}, keywords = {economic growth; income inequality; patent policy; international coordination}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27}, url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v88y2009i2p325-334.html} } @ARTICLE{10.1257/aer.101.7.3308, author = {von Wachter, Till and Song, Jae and Manchester, Joyce}, title = {Trends in Employment and Earnings of Allowed and Rejected Applicants to the Social Security Disability Insurance Program}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {2011}, volume = {101}, pages = {3308-29}, number = {7}, doi = {10.1257/aer.101.7.3308}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2015.02.18}, url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.101.7.3308} } @ARTICLE{Walsh:search, author = {Carl E. Walsh}, title = {Labor market search, sticky prices, and interest rate policies}, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics}, year = {2005}, volume = {8}, pages = {829-849}, number = {4}, doi = {DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2005.03.004}, issn = {1094-2025}, keywords = {Monetary policy}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.08.24}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202505000311} } @BOOK{Wan71, title = {Economic Growth}, publisher = {Harcourt, Brace, and Jovanovich}, year = {1971}, author = {Henry Y. Wan}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Wang:hetero, author = {Jiang Wang}, title = {The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Pure Exchange Economy with Heterogeneous Investors}, journal = {Journal of Financial Economics }, year = {1996}, volume = {41}, pages = {75--110}, number = {1}, abstract = {This paper presents an equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates when investors have heterogeneous preferences. The basic model considers a pure exchange economy of two classes of investors with different (but constant) relative risk aversion and gives closed-form solutions to bond prices. I use the model to examine the effect of preference heterogeneity on the behavior of bond yields. The model is also extended to cases of more than two classes of investors. }, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(95)00854-8}, issn = {0304-405X}, keywords = {Asset pricing}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304405X95008548} } @ARTICLE{Weil2007, author = {Weil, David N.}, title = {{Accounting for The Effect of Health on Economic Growth}}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2007}, volume = {122}, pages = {1265-1306}, number = {3}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Weil2002, author = {David N. Weil}, title = {Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth}, note = {Brown University mimeo}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Weinzierl2009, author = {Matthew Weinzierl}, title = {Incorporating Preference Heterogeneity into Optimal Tax Models: De Gustibus non est Taxandum}, note = {unpublished paper, Harvard University}, month = {May}, year = {2009}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{weiss92, author = {Weiss, Thomas}, title = {U.S. Labor Force Estimates and Economic Growth, 1800-1860}, booktitle = {American Economic Growth and Standards of Living Before the Civil War}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press (NBER)}, year = {1992}, editor = {Robert E. Gallman and John Joseph Wallis}, address = {Chicago}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{WeitzmanBook, title = {Income, Wealth, and the Maximum Principle}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {2003}, author = {Weitzman, Martin}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Werning:ZLB, author = {Iv\'{a}n Werning}, title = {Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy}, note = {Department of Economics, MIT}, month = {April}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.03.26} } @UNPUBLISHED{williams99sndrnd, author = {Williams, John C.}, title = {Patent Protection, Taxation and the Supply and Demand for R\&D}, note = {manuscript, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System}, year = {1999}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{WilliamsThesis, author = {John C. Williams}, title = {Tax and Technology Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model}, note = {Stanford University Ph.D. Dissertation}, year = {1995}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{williams94tgs, author = {Williams, John C.}, title = {Taking Growth Seriously: Theory and Measurement in an R\&D-based Growth Model}, note = {Stanford University mimeo}, year = {1994}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {Stanford University}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Wilmerding:DealTerms, title = {Deal Terms: The Finer Points of Venture Capital Deal Structures, Valuations, Term Sheets, Stock Options, and Getting Deals Done}, publisher = {Aspatore}, year = {2003}, author = {Alex Wilmerding}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.02.17} } @ARTICLE{Wolpin:1987, author = {Wolpin, Kenneth I.}, title = {Estimating a Structural Search Model: The Transition from School to Work}, journal = {Econometrica}, year = {1987}, volume = {55}, pages = {801-817}, number = {4}, abstract = {This paper presents a finite horizon job search model that is econometrically implemented using all of the restrictions implied by the theory. Following a sample of male high school graduates from the youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys from graduation to employment, search parameters such as the cost of search, the probability of receiving an offer, the discount factor, and those from the wage offer distribution are estimated. Reservation wages and offer probabilities are estimated to be quite low. Simulations are performed of the impact of the parameters on the expected duration of unemployment. For example, it is estimated that an offer probability of unity, as opposed to the estimate of approximately only one per cent per week, would reduce the expected duration of unemployment from 46 weeks to 20 weeks.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1987 The Econometric Society}, issn = {00129682}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Jul., 1987}, language = {English}, owner = {Bobhall}, publisher = {The Econometric Society}, timestamp = {2012.05.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1911030} } @UNPUBLISHED{Woodford:JH, author = {Michael Woodford}, title = {Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound}, note = {Columbia University}, month = {September}, year = {2012}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2013.06.25} } @BOOK{Woodford:prices, title = {Interest and Prices}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {2003}, author = {Michael Woodford}, address = {Princeton, New Jersey}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2009.08.24} } @ARTICLE{Woodford:jmcb, author = {Woodford, Michael}, title = {Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability}, journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking}, year = {2001}, volume = {33}, pages = {669-728}, number = {1} } @UNPUBLISHED{Woodward, author = {Woodward, Susan E.}, title = {Measuring Risk and Performance for Private Equity}, note = {Sand Hill Econometrics, http://sandhillecon.com/pdf/MeasuringRiskPerformance.pdf}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2007.03.16} } @BOOK{Woodward:closing, title = {A Study of Closing Costs for FHA Mortgages}, publisher = {US Department of Housing and Urban Development}, year = {2008}, author = {Woodward, Susan E.}, note = {http://www.huduser.org/portal/publications/FHA\_closing\_cost.pdf}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2010.02.12} } @ARTICLE{Woodward:Measuring, author = {Woodward, Susan E.}, title = {Measuring and Managing Alternative Assets Risk}, journal = {Global Association of Risk Professionals}, year = {2005}, month = {May}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.04.10} } @UNPUBLISHED{Woodward:confusion, author = {Woodward, Susan E}, title = {Consumer Confusion in the Mortgage Market}, note = {Sand Hill Econometrics Working Paper}, year = {2003}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2010.02.21} } @ARTICLE{Woodward:Hall, author = {Susan E. Woodward and Robert E. Hall}, title = {Diagnosing Consumer Confusion and Sub-Optimal Shopping Effort: Theory and Mortgage-Market Evidence}, journal = {American Economic Review}, year = {forthcoming}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.05.27} } @BOOK{WorldBank91, title = {World Development Report, 1991}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, year = {1991}, author = {{World Bank}}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Xiong:handbook, author = {Wei Xiong}, title = {Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs}, booktitle = {Handbook on Systemic Risk}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2013}, editor = {Jean-Pierre Fouque and Joe Langsam}, pages = {663--713}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2016.03.30} } @UNPUBLISHED{YamanoAhmad2006, author = {Norihiko Yamano and Nadmim Ahmad}, title = {The OECD Input-Output Database, 2006 Edition}, note = {OECD STI Working Paper 2006/8}, month = {October}, year = {2006}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Yang:1964, author = {Yang, Charles Yneu}, title = {Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising}, journal = {Journal of Marketing}, year = {1964}, volume = {28}, pages = {25-30}, number = {2}, abstract = {The general pattern of cyclical fluctuations in advertising has become familiar today. But what remains less well understood is how one type of advertising may behave differently from others. A better insight into this subject will help media in reducing business instability and to assist advertisers in planning effective advertising strategies. This article demonstrates how differently advertisers of different types of products and of various sizes react to business fluctuations.}, copyright = {Copyright � 1964 American Marketing Association}, issn = {00222429}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Apr., 1964}, language = {English}, owner = {Hall}, publisher = {American Marketing Association}, timestamp = {2012.08.30}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1248886} } @UNPUBLISHED{Yashiv:counter, author = {Eran Yashiv}, title = {Countercyclical Job Values}, note = {Tel Aviv University}, month = {May}, year = {2015}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2015.10.09} } @UNPUBLISHED{Yashiv:J, author = {Eran Yashiv}, title = {Capital Values, Job Values and the Joint Behavior of Hiring and Investment}, note = {Tel Aviv University}, month = {December}, year = {2013}, owner = {Bob Hall}, quality = {1}, timestamp = {2013.12.23} } @ARTICLE{Yashiv:hiring, author = {Eran Yashiv}, title = {Hiring as Investment Behavior }, journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics }, year = {2000}, volume = {3}, pages = {486 - 522}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1006/redy.1999.0084}, issn = {1094-2025}, keywords = {aggregate hiring}, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2013.04.22}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202599900844} } @ARTICLE{Chan:Kogan, author = { Yeung Lewis Chan and Leonid Kogan }, title = {Catching Up with the Joneses: Heterogeneous Preferences and the Dynamics of Asset Prices}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2002}, volume = {110}, pages = {1255-1285}, number = {6}, doi = {10.1086/342806}, eprint = { http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/342806 }, owner = {Bob Hall}, timestamp = {2016.03.16}, url = { http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/342806 } } @ARTICLE{Yi2003, author = {Kei-Mu Yi}, title = {Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?}, journal = {Journal of Political Economy}, year = {2003}, volume = {111}, pages = {52-102}, number = {1}, month = {February}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{Young92, author = {Young, Alwyn}, title = {A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore}, booktitle = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1992}, editor = {Olivier Blanchard and Stanley Fischer}, pages = {13-54}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Young2005, author = {Young, Alwyn}, title = {{The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations}}, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2005}, volume = {120}, pages = {423-466}, number = {2}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @UNPUBLISHED{Zeira2002, author = {Joseph Zeira}, title = {Innovations, Patent Races and Endogenous Growth}, note = {Hebrew University mimeo}, year = {2002}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @ARTICLE{Zhu:goodprice, author = {Zhu, Haoxiang}, title = {Finding a Good Price in Opaque Over-the-Counter Markets}, journal = {The Review of Financial Studies}, year = {2012}, volume = {25}, pages = {pp. 1255-1285}, number = {4}, abstract = {This article offers a dynamic model of opaque over-the-counter markets. A seller searches for an attractive price by visiting multiple buyers, one at a time. The buyers do not observe contacts, quotes, or trades elsewhere in the market. A repeat contact with a buyer reveals the seller's reduced outside options and worsens the price offered by the revisited buyer. When the asset value is uncertain and common to all buyers, a visit by the seller suggests that other buyers could have quoted unattractive prices and thus worsens the visited buyer's inference regarding the asset value.}, copyright = {Copyright � 2012 Oxford University Press}, issn = {08939454}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {April 2012}, language = {English}, owner = {Bob Hall}, publisher = {Oxford University Press. Sponsor: The Society for Financial Studies. }, timestamp = {2013.08.21}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/41407860} } @BOOK{AghionDurlauf2005, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2005}, editor = {Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf}, booktitle = {Handbook of Economic Growth}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Altug:Chadha, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2003}, editor = {Altug, S. and Chadha, J. and Nolan, C.}, booktitle = {Elements of Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.08.24} } @BOOK{Armstrong:Handbook, title = {Handbook of Industrial Organization}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2007}, editor = {M. Armstrong and R. Porter}, booktitle = {Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume 3}, owner = {Bobhall}, timestamp = {2012.08.11} } @BOOK{Ashenfelter:4A, title = {Handbook of Labor Economics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, year = {2010}, editor = {Ashenfelter, Orley and David Card}, booktitle = {Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 4A}, owner = {Bob}, timestamp = {2011.02.12} } @BOOK{Ashenfelter:Handbook, title = {Handbook of Labor Economics}, publisher = {North Holland}, year = {1999}, editor = {Ashenfelter, Orley and David Card}, volume = {3B}, address = {New York}, booktitle = {Handbook of Labor Economics} } @BOOK{Ashenfelter:Card, title = {Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3A}, publisher = {North-Holland}, year = {1999}, editor = {Ashenfelter, Orley C. and David Card}, address = {Amsterdam}, booktitle = {Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3A} } @BOOK{BernankeRotemberg97, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1997}, editor = {Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, booktitle = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{BresnahanGordon97, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1997}, editor = {Timothy F. Bresnahan and Robert J. Gordon}, booktitle = {The Economics of New Goods}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Cooley95, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, year = {1995}, editor = {Thomas J. Cooley}, booktitle = {Frontiers of Business Cycle Research}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Dewat:Advances, title = {Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Invited Lectures to Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {2003}, editor = {Dewatripont, M. and L. Hansen and S. Turnovsky}, address = {Cambridge, England}, booktitle = {Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Invited Lectures to Eighth World Congress of the Econometric Society} } @BOOK{Diamond:Solow, title = {Growth/Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow's Birthday}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1990}, editor = {Diamond, Peter}, address = {Cambridge}, booktitle = {Growth/Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Bob Solow's Birthday} } @BOOK{Diamond90, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1990}, editor = {Peter Diamond}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, booktitle = {Growth/ Productivity/Unemployment: Essays to Celebrate Robert Solow's Birthday}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Finn94, title = {Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1993-1994}, publisher = {Freedom House}, year = {1994}, editor = {James Finn}, address = {New York}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Friedman:quantitytheory, title = {Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money}, publisher = {The University of Chicago Press}, year = {1956}, editor = {Friedman, Milton}, booktitle = {Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2012.12.07} } @BOOK{Griliches84, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {1984}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, address = {Chicago}, booktitle = {R\&D, Patents and Productivity}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Griliches:Priceindexes, title = {Price Indexes and Quality Change}, publisher = {Harvard University Press}, year = {1971}, editor = {Griliches, Zvi}, address = {Cambridge}, booktitle = {Price Indexes and Quality Change} } @BOOK{Haber97, publisher = {Stanford University Press}, year = {1997}, editor = {Stephen Haber}, address = {Stanford, CA}, booktitle = {How Latin America Fell Behind}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{HallRosenberg2010, publisher = {North Holland}, year = {2010}, editor = {Bronwyn H. Hall and Nathan S. Rosenberg}, booktitle = {Handbook of the Economics of Innovation}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Helpman98, title = {General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1998}, editor = {Elhanan Helpman}, address = {Cambridge}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Hiildenbrand:Mas, title = {Contributions to Mathematical Economics: In Honor of Gerard Debreu}, publisher = {New York: North-Holland}, year = {1986}, editor = {Hildenbrand, Werner and Andreu Mas-Colell}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.08.14} } @BOOK{Ethnologue, title = {Ethnologue: Languages of the World}, publisher = {Lanstryckeriet}, year = {1992}, editor = {Barbara F. Hunter}, address = {Gothenburg, Sweden}, edition = {Twelth}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{KrepsWallis97, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, year = {1997}, editor = {David M. Kreps and Kenneth F. Wallis}, address = {New York}, booktitle = {Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{McKenzie:Value, title = {Value and Capital Fifty Years Later}, publisher = {MacMillan}, year = {1991}, editor = {McKenzie, L. and S. Zamagni}, address = {New York}, booktitle = {Value and Capital Fifty Years Later} } @BOOK{MurphyTopelBook, title = {Measuring the Gains from Medical Research: An Economic Approach}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {2003}, editor = {Kevin M. Murphy and Robert Topel}, address = {Chicago}, booktitle = {Measuring the Gains from Medical Research: An Economic Approach}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Phelps:volume, publisher = {W.W. Norton}, year = {1970}, editor = {Phelps, Edmund S.}, address = {New York}, booktitle = {Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.05.06} } @BOOK{SchmalenseeWillig89, title = {Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume II}, publisher = {North-Holland}, year = {1989}, editor = {Richard Schmalensee and Robert D. Willig}, address = {Amsterdam}, booktitle = {Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume II} } @BOOK{Shell67a, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1967}, editor = {Karl Shell}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, booktitle = {Essays on the Theory of Economic Growth}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @INCOLLECTION{stiglitzuzawa69, title = {Readings in the Modern Theory of Economic Growth}, publisher = {MIT Press}, year = {1969}, editor = {Stiglitz, Joseph E. and Hirofumi Uzawa}, address = {Cambridge, MA}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{TaylorWoodford99, publisher = {North-Holland Elsevier Science}, year = {1999}, editor = {John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford}, booktitle = {Handbook of Macroeconomics}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Watts:Income, title = {Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric Studies}, publisher = {Rand McNally}, year = {1973}, editor = {Watts, H. and G. Cain}, address = {New York}, booktitle = {Income Maintenance and Labor Supply: Econometric Studies} } @INBOOK{Bewley:consumers, pages = {79-102}, title = {Stationary Monetary Equilibrium with a Continuum of Independently Fluctuating Consumers}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2006.08.14} } @BOOK{BordoTaylorWilliamson2002, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, year = {forthcoming}, booktitle = {Globalization in Historical Perspective}, editors = {Michael Bordo and Alan Taylor and Jeffrey Williamson}, owner = {Hall}, timestamp = {2011.06.27} } @BOOK{Fed:referencemanual, title = {Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition}, publisher = {U.S. Government Printing Office}, year = {2000}, address = {Federal Judicial Center, Washington, DC}, booktitle = {Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition} } @comment{jabref-meta: databaseType:biblatex;}