Dragon Year Baby Booms : Truth or Hoax?
With each Chinese New Year celebration comes questions of relatives getting married, adopting new jobs, and having children. Since ancient times, dragons have been revered in Chinese culture. With this association of nobility and good fortune, it is a common belief within Chinese culture that children born in the Year of the Dragon are especially destined for success and power in life. In an article by economists Naci Hocan and Han Yu at Louisiana State University, the authors note that Chinese parents have strong preferences towards raising children born in the Year of Dragon versus any other year. This trend is most prevalent in countries with a strong Chinese diaspora, which include China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. On average, the number of Chinese births increase by 9.3 percent in the year of the Dragon, a change that is not reflected in any other years in the Chinese calendar cycle. In 2000, Hong Kong saw more than a 5% rise in the number of births with the year of the dragon.
Information cascades have potential to occur in sequential decision-making, oftentimes originating from present decision makers observing past actions and inferring certain information from these previous decisions. When we look at the origins of why this superstition came to be, there seems to be little ancient history that substantiates this correlation that being born in the year of the dragon results in relative success. The dragon has always been regarded as a symbol of might and intelligence in Chinese culture, yet this has somehow manifested in the belief that children born that year will reflect the same qualities. Rather than past studies or data, this study has been perpetuated by an ingrained belief in tradition passed on from ancient times and word-of-mouth within the Chinese community.
Rosanna Xie in The Los Angeles’ Times notes that “although most ancient superstitions have disappeared from the conscience of second- and third-generation Asian Americans, the belief that the Year of the Dragon is lucky has persisted”. Since ancient times, it has been a trend among Chinese cultures to support this belief, even to the degree of manipulating marriage times to ensure their children are born within that time frame. While the trend is driven by the influence of deeply ingrained superstitious beliefs, even couples who do not fully buy into the mythology of the Chinese zodiac system still prefer Dragon babies. This preference of dragon babies is built off observations of other Chinese couples following the same behaviors throughout history, even adopted by those who are less superstitious. Fertility decisions are more or less influenced by the behavior of fellow peers instead, demonstrating this herding effect as more couples hear that siblings, cousins, and friends are preparing their pregnancies to align with the year of the dragon. These influences are then largely rooted in social pressure and tradition rather than proven correlation. While most younger, well-educated parents do not completely subscribe to these astrological beliefs, there is an appeal in satisfying older generations who tend to more closely follow these traditional superstitions. This superstition has even manifested commercially, with several companies within the China’s fertility industry offering discounts and specials to account for the year of the dragon, further heightening pressure on couples. An article by BBC News even claims that the lure of the dragon year has even influenced prospective parents outside of Chinese culture. Rather, their motivations are driven by the fact that given the Chinese population has been subscribing to this belief for so long, so there must be some truth to the longstanding tradition.
Ironically, we see this influx of births may have an adverse effect on the generation born in the Year of Dragon. The article states that a key explanation for these less than ideal outcomes is that given so many babies are being born in a given year, there is more competition for resources. Dr. Zhang Yanxia, a research fellow at the East Asian Institute in Singapore, notes that the dragon baby boom “will put a lot of pressure on hospitals, kindergartens, and schools in China”. Regardless, for parents who are able to enroll their children in the top schools, these families seem to be investing more time, money, and effort into cultivating their children’s education. In an article by The Economist, the author claims that parents of dragon children are relatively more involved in educating their offspring, even giving out less in-home responsibilities to allow their children to focus on their education. Many critics argue that the whole superstition has led to a self-fulfilling policy in that the children are not necessarily more talented or skilled, but receive more guidance, support, and confidence from their own parents. When accounting for factors of parents’ increased investment of time and energy to ensure their children live up to this superstition, this academic advantage seems to disappear.
Sources:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/09/04/why-chinese-children-born-in-years-of-the-dragon-are-more-successful
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2012/02/dragon-babies-are-years-must-have/332153/
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/commentary-superstition-and-herd-behaviour-still-hold-sway-over-9944540
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-16589052
