8:30 AM

 Registration Continues

  9:15 AM

Welcoming Remarks

• John Weyant, Stanford University |Weyant (37.3KB )|

• Jae Edmonds, PNNL |Edmonds (1.1KB )|

11:15 AM   

NIES Socio-Economic Scenarios

• Shinichiro Fujimori, NIES |Fujimori (2.8KB )|

Energy Land and Water in the Context of a Changing Climate

Integrated Assessment Modeling Panelists: Jae Edmonds (PNNL); Elmar Kriegler (PIK); Detlef van Vuuren (PBL); Shinichiro Fujimori (NIES); Kathy Hibbard (PNNL)

  1:00 PM

Insights from the climate modeling community with special attention to High Resolution Modeling

• Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University |Diffenbaugh7-27 (21.9KB )|

  2:00 PM

Potential bio-energy futures envisioned by the Integrated Assessment Modeling community

• Steve Rose, EPRI |Rose7-27 (2.6KB )|

  3:30 PM  

Water scarcity in the context of growing food demands and climate change

• Claudia Ringler IFPRI |RinglerPresentation (2.7KB ))|
• Jae Edmonds, PNNL |Edmonds7-27 (2.1KB )|

  4:30 PM   

Integrated Assessment Panel & Discussion Key Challenges:

• Elmar Kriegler, PIK |Kriegler (3.0KB )|

Future Climate: Implications for the Nexus

    8:30 AM 

The Food-Fuel-Environment Tri-lemma

**Tom Hertel, Purdue University**

    9:30 AM 

Interactions between climate and ecosystems

• David Kicklighter, Woods Hole |Kicklighter (5.1KB )|

  11:00 AM

Implications of climate change for agriculture and commodity markets

**David Lobell, Stanford University **

  1:00 PM

Climate impacts on future crop production

• Jerry Nelson, IFPRI |Nelson (5.6KB )|

  2:00 PM

The role of water constraints in determining the global land use impacts of biofuel expansion

Embodied water in trade: Whither Virtual Water?
**Richard Tol, ESRI**

  4:30 PM  

Hydrological modeling at the global scale: Limitations and Opportunities

• Ximing Cai, Unversity of Illinois |XimingCai (4.1KB )|

  5:30 PM

Adjourn and informal discussion

(Top)

  8:30 AM  

Incorporating Water Resources Impacts into Integrated Assessment Models

**Ken Strzepek, MIT and University of Colorado**

Yield trajectories, yield responses, water constraints

• Patricio Grassini, University of Nebraska |Grassini (8.8KB )|

Understanding land transitions

**George Hurtt, University of Maryland**

Acknowledging local realities when evaluating regional water resources: innovation, challenges & uncertainties

• Pat Reed: Pennsylvania State University |Reed (10.9KB )|

National Climate Assessment specific effort on energy-water-land and its first meeting

**Bob Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy**

**Tony Janetos, JGCRI/PNNL**

**Kathy Hibbard**

Adjourn and informal discussion

• Design of protocol
• Metrics for output
• Maximizing participation

Update on the National Climate Assessment

• Kathy Jacobs, U.S. Office of Science Technology Policy |JacobsKatharine (5.2KB )|

• Doug Arent |Arent8-1 (1.6KB )|
• Leon Clark |Clarke8-1 (3.7KB )|
• Kristie Ebi |Ebi8-1 (681.0KB )|
• Klaus Keller**
• Elmar Kriegler |Kriegler8-1 (1.0KB )|
• David Montgomery |Montgomery8-1 (124.7KB )|
• Nebojsa Nakicenovic |Nakicenovic8-1 (6.9KB )|
• William Nordhaus |Nordhaus8-1 (2.3KB )|
• Richard Tol |Tol8-1 (1.7KB )|
• Detlef van Vuuren |vanVuuren8-1 (5.2KB )|
• Stephanie Waldhoff |Waldoff8-1 (1.4KB )|
• Mort Webster  (Webster (1.0KB ))
• John Weyant |Weyant8-1 (1.7KB )|
• Tom Wilbanks |Wilbanks8-1 (4.1KB )|
• William Nordhaus |Nordhaus8-1(2) (2.1KB )
• Steve Rose | Rose8-1 (137.7KB )

Next steps:

(1) Are there important research questions to be addressed? Is this important enough to be worth a major collaborative research program?

(2) If so, what are the key questions? Make a specific list of questions and uncertainties to be addressed.

(3) Protocol development (need working group to develop this)

(4) Any major methodological questions that need to be addressed (tools for determining uncertainty, thin v. thick tails, model v. parameter uncertainty, and others)

(5) Model inclusion: how to get the widest model participation (open access), while ensuring that have adequate comparability

(6) Future meetings

 Adjourn and Informal Discussion

Institutions, Economic and Climate Policy in a Mosaic World (Day 1)

Opening Comments--John P. Weyant

• Brian Flannery, Exxon Mobil |BrianFlannery (112.8KB )|

An Overview of NIE

• Lee Alston, University of Colorado |Alston8-3 (53.3KB )|

Institutions and economic growth: The rise, spread, and limits of sustained economic growth

• John Wallis, University of Maryland/NBER |Wallis8-3 (280.1KB )|

The new institutionalism: implications for climate policy analysis

• Lee Lane, Hudson Institute |LeeLane (236.7KB )|

The shaping of U.S. energy and climate policy

• Barry Weingast, Stanford University |Weingast8-3 (1.0KB )|

How do models represent policies that come out of real governments?  What are implications for international action? 

Panel: Leon Clarke, Elmar Kreigler, David Montgomery -- |LClarke8-3 (2.2KB )|, |Kriegler8-3 (375.1KB )|, |Montgomery8-3 (205.6KB )|

The role of scenarios in driving climate futures

• Jae Edmonds, PNNL |Edmonds8-3 (2.8KB )|

What information should socio-economic scenarios provide?

• John Weyant, Stanford University |Weyant8-3 (71.2KB )|

Can NIE research narrow the range of scenarios we are likely to see or identify inconsistent assumptions describing scenarios?

• John Wallis, University of Maryland/NBER |Wallis8-3 (30.8KB )|

 Open discussion

Introduction and Overview

• David Montgomery, NERA |Montgomery8-4 (233.8KB )|

Governance, and the feasibility of offset programs

• Lee Alston, University of Colorado |Alston8-4(1) (94.0KB )|, |Alston8-4(2) (156.6KB ) 

Adaptation, aid & violence in Africa

• Robert Bates, Harvard University |Bates8-4 (43.1KB )|

Panel discussion on how to bring NIE perspectives into scenario development and modeling of costs and benefits of climate policies

• Chris Field, Carnegie Institution of Washington |CField8-4 (355.7KB )|
• Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |Kriegler8-4 (775.6KB )|

**John Weyant, Stanford University** 

Engaging the NIE community in climate research and assessment
**Barry Weingast, Stanford University** 

Possible topics for next year
**Brian Flannery, David Montgomery, and John Weyant**

• Doug Arent, JISEA/NREL |Arent8-4 (4.3KB )|