Ralph Northam Through Game Theory
For context: Last week the governor of Virginia, Ralph Northam, faced calls to resign from office following the discovery of a racist photograph from 1984. Northam appeared in a picture in his medical school yearbook either in blackface or in Klan garb. Northman has apologized but not taken any steps to resign at the moment. There are obviously valid reasons for the call of his resignation. However, should he resign according to his own interests? Game theory would suggest not.
Just to clarify, this post is not advocating for any such course of action. However, it will assess Northman’s decision to resign or not resign from a game theory lens.
Game theory simplifies the world into a payoff matrix. In a standard game, it is assumed that the payoffs summarize the relevant incentives, each player knows everything about the structure of the game, and each player wants to maximize their payoff.
In this situation, Northam has two strategies: resign or don’t resign. As with most games, the payoffs are fairly measurable. Putting all morality aside, let’s assume that Northam only cares about his political career and his payoffs correspond respectively. History shows that if Northam were to resign, his political career (at the very least) would be over. What if he doesn’t resign? Well, America’s politics in the recent years suggests that he has a decent chance at maintaining his career. Take the examples of Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, two politicians that politically overcame behavior scandals.
So, if Northam choses to resign, his political career is almost definitely over. Yet, if he remains in office, he at least has a chance at maintaining his career. Northam has a dominant strategy: no matter what his opponents do, his career ends if he resigns but he at least has a chance if he doesn’t. From a game theory perspective, he should choose his dominant strategy and remain in office.
Nevertheless, the world is not a game. The assumption that payoffs summarize everything and that each player wants to maximize these payoffs is obviously limiting, and it is supposed to be in order to simplify the complexity of interactions. However, these complexities are important. There is no substitute for morality in decision making.
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