• A Topological Perspective on Causal Inference (preprint), with Duligur Ibeling (also presented at the Causal Assumptions Workshop at ICML 2021).

  • Causal Abstractions of Neural Networks (preprint), with Atticus Geiger, Hanson Lu, and Christopher Potts.

  • Why be Random?, in Mind (archive version here).

  • On Pearl's Hierarchy and the Foundations of Causal Inference, forthcoming in Probabilistic and Causal Inference: the Works of Judea Pearl (ACM Books), with Elias Bareinboim, Juan Correa, and Duligur Ibeling.

  • Inference from Explanation (preprint), with Lara Kirfel and Tobias Gerstenberg.

  • Logics of Imprecise Comparative Probability, in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, with Yifeng Ding and Wesley Holliday.

  • 2019/2020:

  • Expectations Affect Physical Causation Judgments, with Tobias Gerstenberg, forthcoming in Journal of Experimental Psychology: General (see here for a preprint).

  • Calibrating Generative Models: The Probabilistic Chomsky-Schützenberger Hierarchy, in Journal of Mathematical Psychology (preprint here and associated talk here).

  • Probabilistic Reasoning across the Causal Hierarchy, with Duligur Ibeling, in 34th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 2020).

  • On Open-Universe Causal Reasoning, with Duligur Ibeling, in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2019).


  • On the Conditional Logic of Simulation Models (2018), with Duligur Ibeling, Proceedings of the 27th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI).

  • On the Instrumental Value of Counterfactual and Hypothetical Thought (2018), with Fiery Cushman and Joshua Knobe, Proc. of the 40th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society.

  • Bayes, Bounds, and Rational Analysis (2018), in Philosophy of Science.

  • From Programs to Causal Models (2017), Proceedings of the 21st Amsterdam Colloquium.

  • Normality and Actual Causal Strength (2017), with Jonathan Kominsky and Joshua Knobe, in Cognition (see here for a preprint).

  • Beyond Almost-Sure Termination (2017), in Proceedings of the 39th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society.

  • Axiomatization in the Meaning Sciences (2017), with Wesley Holliday, in The Science of Meaning, (ed. Ball and Rabern).

  • A Monotonicity Calculus and Its Completeness (2017), with Larry Moss and William Tune, in Mathematics of Language.

  • Indicative Conditionals and Dynamic Epistemic Logic (2017), with Wesley Holliday, in Proceedings of TARK.

  • Preferential Structures for Comparative Probabilistic Reasoning (2017), with Matthew Harrison-Trainor and Wesley Holliday, in 31st AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence.

  • Inferring Probability Comparisons (2017), with Matthew Harrison-Trainor and Wesley Holliday, in Mathematical Social Sciences (see also here).


  • Pragmatic Considerations on Comparative Probability (2016), in Philosophy of Science.

  • Subjective Probability as Sampling Propensity (2016), in Review of Philosophy and Psychology (official version here).

  • Causality, Normality, and Sampling Propensity (2016), with Joshua Knobe, in Proceedings of the 38th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society. [Superseded by 'Normality and Actual Causal Strength' above.]

  • A Note on Cancellation Axioms for Comparative Probability (2016), with Matthew Harrison-Trainor and Wesley Holliday, in Theory and Decision.

  • Intention Reconsideration as Metareasoning (2015), with Marc van Zee, NIPS Workshop on Bounded Optimality and Rational Metareasoning.

  • A Resource-Rational Approach to the Causal Frame Problem (2015), with Noah Goodman, in Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society.


  • Toward Boundedly Rational Analysis (2014), in Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society.

  • Higher-Order Syllogistics (2014), in Formal Grammar, Springer LNCS.

  • Recent Progress on Monotonicity (2014), with Larry Moss, in Linguistic Issues in Language Technology.

  • Measure Semantics and Qualitative Semantics for Epistemic Modals (2013), with Wesley Holliday, in Proceedings of Semantics and Linguistic Theory 23.

  • Iterating Semantic Automata (2013), with Shane Steinert-Threlkeld, in Linguistics and Philosophy. (For a companion experimental paper, see here.)

  • A Complete Calculus of Monotone and Antitone Higher-Order Functions (2013), with Larry Moss, in Proceedings of Topology, Algebra, and Categories in Logic 2013.

  • Information Dynamics and Uniform Substitution (2013), with Wesley Holliday and Tomohiro Hoshi, in Synthese.


  • Inclusion and Exclusion in Natural Language (2012), in Studia Logica.

  • Provability and Interpretability Logics with Restricted Realizations (2012), with Joost Joosten, in Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic.

  • A Uniform Logic of Information Dynamics (2012), with Wesley Holliday and Tomohiro Hoshi, in Advances in Modal Logic, Vol. 9.

  • A topological study of the closed fragment of GLP (2011), in Journal of Logic and Computation.
  • 2010 and before:

  • On topological models of GLP (2010), with Lev Beklemishev and Guram Bezhanishvili, in Ways of Proof Theory (ed. R. Schindler), Ontos Series in Mathematical Logic.

  • Moorean Phenomena in Epistemic Logic (2010), with Wesley Holliday, in Advances in Modal Logic, Vol. 8.

  • Joint Revision of Belief and Intention (2010), with Eric Pacuit and Yoav Shoham, in Proceedings of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning, 2010.

  • Models of the Polymodal Provability Logic (2008), M.Sc. Thesis, Universiteit van Amsterdam