Google Scholar profile · Working papers · Published · Other writing

Working Papers

• Understanding and addressing temperature impacts on mortality
  Marshall Burke, Andrew Wilson, Khusel Avirmed, Jonas Wallstein, Mariana Martins, Patrick Behrer, Christopher Callahan, Marissa Childs, June Choi, Karina French, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Renzhi Jing, Minghao Qiu, Lisa Rennels, Emma Krasovich Southworth
  NBER WP 34313, Oct 2025
• Climate Change, Conflict, and the Risk of Economic Collapse in Africa
  Joel Ferguson, Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, Ted Miguel
  NBER WP 34320, Oct 2025
• The air pollution benefits of low severity fire
  Ivan Higuera-Mendieta and Marshall Burke
  EarthArxiv preprint, July 2025
• Valuing Wildfire Smoke Related Mortality Benefits from Climate Mitigation
  Minghao Qiu, Chris Callahan, Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Lisa Rennels, Bryan Parthum, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
  NBER WP 33829, May 2025
• Growing wildfire-derived PM2.5 across the contiguous U.S. and implications for air quality regulation
  Marissa Childs, Mariana Martins, Andrew Wilson, Sam Heft-Neal, Minghao Qiu, Marshall Burke
  EarthArxiv preprint, Dec 2024
• Are we adapting to climate change
  Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Mariana Martins, Christopher Callahan, Richard Lee, Jay Amgalan, Khusel Avirmed, Renzhi Jing, Sam Heft-Neal, Rachel Young, Mathew V Kiang, Solomon Hsiang, David Lobell
  NBER working paper 32985, Sep 2024
• Large indirect economic impacts of tropical cyclones shaped by disaster response
  Christopher Callahan, Jane Baldwin, Renzhi Jing, Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh
  EarthArxiv preprint, May 2024
• Quantifying climate change loss and damage consistent with a social cost of greenhouse gases
  Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Noah Diffenbaugh, Sol Hsiang
  NBER Working Paper 31658, Sep 2023
• Game, sweat, match: temperature and elite worker productivity
  Marshall Burke, Vincent Tanutama, Sam Heft-Neal, Miyuki Hino, David Lobell
  NBER Working Paper 31650, Sep 2023
• Productivity dispersion and persistence among the world's most numerous firms
  Casey Maue, Kyle Emerick, Marshall Burke
  NBER Working Paper 26924, April 2020
• Climatic constraints on aggregate economic output
  Vincent Tanutama and Marshall Burke
  NBER Working paper 25779, May 2019

Published and Forthcoming

• Dynamic, high-resolution poverty measurement in data-scarce environments
  Zhuo Zheng, Timothy Wu, Richard Lee, David Newhouse, Talip Kilic, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon, David Lobell
  Journal of Development Economics 179, 2026
• Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events
  Christopher Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh
  PNAS 122(51), 2025
• Intensifying risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur
  Christopher Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew Wilson, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
  Nature Climate Change 16, 2026
• Mortality burden from wildfire smoke under future climate change
  Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
  Nature 647(935–943) 2025
• Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia
  Marissa Childs, Kelsey Lyberger, Mallory Harris, Marshall Burke, Erin Mordecai
  PNAS 122(37), 2025
• Temperature extremes impact morbidity and mortality differently
  Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Alexandra Heaney, Eran Bendavid, Christopher Callahan, Mathew Kiang, Joshua Graff Zivin, Marshall Burke
  Science Advances 11 (31), 2025
• Effect of Recent Prescribed Burning and Land Management on Wildfire Burn Severity and Smoke Emissions in the Western United States
  Kelp, M., M. Burke, M. Qiu, I. Higuera-Mendieta, T. Liu, and N. Diffenbaugh
  AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001682, 2025
• The influence of wildfire smoke on ambient chemical species concentrations in the contiguous US
  Emma Krasovich Southworth, Minghao Qiu, Carlos F. Gould, Ayako Kawano, Jeff Wen, Kara Kilpatrick Voss, Alandra Lopez, Scott Fendorf, Jennifer Burney, Marshall Burke
  Environmental Science & Technology, 2025
• Improved daily PM2.5 estimates in India reveal inequalities in recent enhancement of air quality
  Ayako Kawano, Makoto Kelp, Minghao Qiu, Kirat Singh, Eeshan Chaturvedi, Ines Azevedo, Marshall Burke
  Science Advances 11(4), 2025
• New evidence on the economics of climate and conflict
  Marshall Burke, Joel Ferguson, Sol Hsiang, Ted Miguel
  Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, 2024
• Evaluating Chemical Transport and Machine Learning Models for Wildfire Smoke PM2.5: Implications for Assessment of Health Impacts
  Minghao Qiu, Makoto Kelp, Sam Heft-Neal, Xiaomeng Jin, Carlos Gould, Daniel Tong, Marshall Burke
  Environmental Science & Technology, 58(52) 2024
• Unlocking the benefits of credit through savings
  Sanghamitra Mukherjee, Lauren Bergquist, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel
  Journal of Development Economics, 2024
• The effect of flood exposure on insurance adoption among US households
  June Choi, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
  Earth's Future, 12(7)
• Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine Particulate Matter When Cooking with Electricity Compared to Gas: a Randomized Crossover Study in Quito, Ecuador
  Carlos F. Gould, Lissete Dávila, M. Lorena Bejarano, Marshall Burke, Darby W. Jack, Samuel B. Schlesinger, José R. Mora, Alfredo Valarezo
  Environmental Health Perspectives, 123(1) 2024
• A table is worth a thousand pictures: Multi-modal contrastive learning in house burning classification in wildfire events
  Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Jeff Wen, Marshall Burke
  NeurIPS '23 Computational Sustainability Workshop
• Quantifying fire-specific smoke severity
  Jeff Wen, Sam Heft-Neal, Patrick Baylis, Judd Boomhower, Marshall Burke
  PNAS 120(51), 2023
• The contribution of wildfire to PM2.5 trends in the US
  Marshall Burke, Marissa Childs, Brandon de la Cuesta, Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Michael Wara
  Nature 622(761–766), 2023
  [replication data] [research briefing]
• Health effects of wildfires.
  Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Mary Prunicki, Juan Antonio Aguilera-Mendoza, Marshall Burke, Kari Nadeau. 2023
  Annual Review of Medicine, 75(19), 2023
• Emergency department visits respond non-linearly to wildfires smoke
  Sam Heft-Neal, Carlos F. Gould, Marissa Childs, Matt Kiang, Kari Nadeau, Mark Duggan, Eran Bendavid, Marshall Burke
  PNAS 120(39), 2023
• Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking
  Carlos Gould, Alfredo Valarezo, Samuel Schlesinger, Darby W. Jack, M. Lorena Bejarano, Brandon De la Cuesta, Marshall Burke
  PNAS 120(34), 2023
  [Data and code]
• Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western US
  Minghao Qiu, Nathan Ratledge, Ines Azevedo, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
  PNAS 120(28), 2023
  [Data and code]
• Global biomass fires and infant mortality
  Hemant Pullabhotla, Mustafa Zahid, Sam Heft-Neal, Vaibhav Rathi, Marshall Burke
  PNAS 120(23), 2023
  [Data and code]
• Using satellite imagery and machine learning to estimate the livelihood impact of electricity access
  Nathan Ratledge, Gabe Cadamuro, Brandon de la Questa, Matthieu Stigler, and Marshall Burke. 2022
  Nature
  [Data and code]
• Wildfire smoke exposure worsens learning outcomes
  Jeff Wen and Marshall Burke
  Nature Sustainability
  [Data and code]
• Daily local-level estimates of ambient wildfire smoke PM2.5 for the contiguous US
  Marissa Childs, Jessica Li, Jeff Wen, Sam Heft-Neal, Anne Driscoll, Sherrie Wang, Carlos Gould, Minghao Qiu, Jen Burney, Marshall Burke
  Environmental Science and Technology, 2022
  [Data and code]
• Geographically resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects
  Jen Burney, Geeta Persad, Jon Proctor, Eran Bendavid, Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal
  Science Advances 8(38), 2022
• Exposures and behavioral responses to wildfire smoke
  Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Jessica Li, Anne Driscoll, Patrick Baylis, Matthieu Stigler, Joakim Weill, Jennifer Burney, Jeff Wen, Marissa Childs, Carlos Gould
  Nature Human Behavior, 2022
• Associations between wildfire smoke exposure during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth in California
  Sam Heft-Neal, Anne Driscoll, Wei Yang, Gary Shaw, and Marshall Burke
  Environmental Research, 2022
• Upstream oil and gas production and ambient air pollution in California
  David JX Gonzalez, Christina K Francis, Gary M Shaw, Mark R Cullen, Michael Baiocchi, Marshall Burke
  Science of the Total Environment 806(1), 2022
• Wildfire smoke plume segmentation using geostationary satellite imagery
  Jeff Wen and Marshall Burke
  ICML 2021
• Historical warming has increased US crop insurance losses
  Noah Diffenbaugh, Frances Davenport, and Marshall Burke
  Environmental Research Letters, 2021
• Twice Is Nice: The Benefits of Two Ground Measures for Evaluating the Accuracy of Satellite-Based Sustainability Estimates.
  David Lobell, Stefania Di Tommaso, Marshall Burke, and Talip Kilic
  Remote Sensing, 2021
• The effect of information about climate risk on property values
  Miyuki Hino and Marshall Burke
  PNAS 118(17), 2021
  [replication data]
• Scalable deep learning to identify brick kilns and aid regulatory capacity
  Jihyeon Lee, Nina Brooks, Fahim Tajwar, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon, David Lobell, Debashish Biswas, and Steve Luby
  PNAS 118(17), 2021
  [replication data]
• Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development.
  Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, David Lobell, and Stefano Ermon
  Science 371(6535)
  [replication data]
• The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the US.
  Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, Sam Heft-Neal, Jenny Xue, Jen Burney, and Michael Wara
  PNAS 118(2), 2021
  [replication data]
• Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages
  Frances Davenport, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh
  PNAS 118(4), 2021
  [replication data]
• Predicting Livelihood Indicators from Crowdsourced Street Level Images.
  Jihyeon Lee, Dylan Grosz, Sicheng Zeng, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon
  AAAI-21. To appear in Proc. 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021
• Efficient Poverty Mapping from High Resolution Remote Sensing Images
  Kumar Ayush, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon
  AAAI-21. To appear in Proc. 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021
• Dust pollution from the Sahara and African infant mortality.
  Sam Heft-Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, Kara Voss, and Marshall Burke
  Nature Sustainability, 3(863), 2020
  [replication data]
• Using publicly available satellite imagery and deep learning to understand economic wellbeing in Africa
  Chris Yeh, Anthony Perez, George Azzari, Anne Driscoll, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon, and Marshall Burke
  Nature Communications 2020(11), 2583
  [supplementary information] [replication data]
• Oil and gas production and spontaneous preterm birth in the San Joaquin Valley, CA: A case-control study
  Gonzalez, David J.X., Allison R. Sherris, Wei Yang, David K. Stevenson, Amy M. Padula, Michael Baiocchi, Marshall Burke, Mark R. Cullen, and Gary M. Shaw (2020)
  Environmental Epidemiology
• The economic origins of conflict in Africa
  Eoin McGuirk and Marshall Burke
  Journal of Political Economy 128(10), 2020
  [replication data]
• Generating interpretable poverty maps using object detection in satellite images
  Kumar Ayush, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Stefano Ermon
  IJCAI-20. To appear in Proc. 29th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
• Sight for Sorghums: Comparisons of Satellite- and Ground-Based Sorghum Yield Estimates in Mali
  David Lobell,  StefaniaDi Tommaso, Calum You, Ismael Yacoubou Djima, Marshall Burke, and Talip Kilic
  Remote Sensing 12(1), 100
• Flood size increases nonlinearly across the western United States in response to lower snow-precipitation ratios
  Frances Davenport, Julio Herrera-Estrada, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh
  Water Resources Research, 10.1029/2019WR025571
• Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood
  Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Ties Boerma, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid
  Lancet Global Health 7(12), 2019
• Economic and non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico
  Ceren Baysan, Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel
  Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, 434-452
  [replication data]
• Eyes in the sky, boots on the ground: assessing satellite- and ground-based approaches to crop yield measurement and analysis
  David Lobell, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Sydney Gourlay, Zhenong Jin, Talip Kilic, Siobhan Murray
  American Journal of Agricultural Economics, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aaz051
  [replication data]
• Global warming has increased global economic inequality
  Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke
  PNAS 116 (20), 2019
• Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
  Katherine Mach, Caroline Kraan, et al
  Nature 571(193), 2019
• Sell low and buy high: arbitrage and local price effects in Kenyan markets
  Marshall Burke, Lauren Bergquist, and Ted Miguel
  Quarterly Journal of Economics
  [replication data]
• Predicting Economic Development using Geolocated Wikipedia Articles
  Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Matthew Tan, Burak Uzkent, Neal Jean, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon
  KDD-19. To appear in Proc. 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2019
• Semantic segmentation of crop type in Africa: A novel dataset and analysis of deep learning methods
  Rose Rustowicz, Robin Cheong, Lijing Wang, Stefano Ermon, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell
  CVPR '19
• Learning to Interpret Satellite Images using Wikipedia
  Burak Uzkent, Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon
  IJCAI-19. To appear in Proc. 28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2019
• Mapping Missing Population in Rural India: A Deep Learning Approach with Satellite Imagery
  Wenjie Hu, Jay Harshadbhai Patel, Zoe-Alanah Robert, Paul Novosad, Samuel Asher, Zhongyi Tang, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon
  To appear in Proc. 1st AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (AIES 2019)
• Smallholder maize area and yield mapping at national scales with Google Earth Engine
  Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Calum You, Stefania Di Tommaso, Stephen Aston, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell
  , Remote Sensing of Environment, 228, 115-128
• Armed conflict and child mortality
  Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid
  Lancet 392, 857-865
• Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions
  Jon Proctor, Sol Hsiang, Jen Burney, Marshall Burke, and Wolfram Schlenker
  Nature 560, 480-483
  [replication code]
• Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico
  Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu, and Sol Hsiang
  Nature Climate Change 8,723-729
  [paper] [replication code] [Comment by Matthew Gammans] [our response]
• Robust relationship between air quality and infant mortality in Africa
  Sam Heft Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, and Marshall Burke
  Nature 559 (254), 2018
  [paper] [Nature News and Views by Lance Waller] [replication code] [video explaining the research]
• Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets
  Marshall Burke, Matt Davis, Noah Diffenbaugh
  Nature, 557(549), 2018
  [paper] [Nature News and Views by Wolfram Schlenker and Max Auffhammer] [replication code] [op-ed in The Hill]
• Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study
  Chris Weyant, Margaret L Brandeau, Marshall Burke, David B Lobell, Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu
  PLOS Medicine
• Infrastructure Quality Assessment in Africa using Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning
  Barak Oshri, Annie Hu, Peter Adelson, Xiao Chen, Pascaline Dupas, Jeremy Weinstein, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon
  KDD-18. To appear in Proc. 24th ACM SIGKDD Conference, 2018
  [Arxiv]
• Mapping and explaining smallholder yield heterogeneity in Eastern Afric
  Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Step Aston, David Lobell
  a. Remote Sensing, 9(9)
• Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems
  Marshall Burke* and David Lobell*
  PNAS
  [blog post] [earlier blog post] [video explaining research]
• Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions
  Sam Heft-Neal, David Lobell, and Marshall Burke
  Environmental Research Letters, 12(1) 014013
• Understanding variation in child mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa
  Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid
  Lancet Global Health, Oct 2016
  [project website with interactive visualizations and data downloads]
• Combining machine learning and satellite imagery to predict poverty
  Neal Jean*, Marshall Burke*, Michael Xie, Matt Davis, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon
  Science, 353(6301), 790-794. (*denotes equal authorship)
  [project website] [video] [commentary by Josh Blumenstock] [replication code]
• Opportunities for advances in climate change economics
  Marshall Burke, Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda, and lots of others
  Science
• Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture
  Marshall Burke and Kyle Emerick
  American Economic Journal -Economic Policy, 8(3), 106-140
  [Replication data]
• Conflict in a changing climate
  Tamma Carleton, Sol Hsiang, and Marshall Burke. 2016
  European Physical Journal
• Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
  Marshall Burke*, Sol Hsiang*, and Ted Miguel
  Nature. (*denotes equal authorship)
  [replication data and results viz]
• Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts
  Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Ted Miguel, and Shanker Satyanath
  Review of Economics and Statistics
• Climate and conflict
  Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel
  Annual Review of Economics
• Income shocks and HIV in Africa
  Marshall Burke, Erick Gong, and Kelly Jones
  Economic Journal
  [Replication data]
• Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: Reply to Buhaug et al
  Sol Hsiang, Marshall Burke, Ted Miguel
  Climatic Change, 2014
• Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict
  Sol Hsiang*, Marshall Burke*, Ted Miguel (*equal authorship)
  Science, 2013
• Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the literature say?
  Sol Hsiang, Marshall Burke
  Climatic Change, 2013
• Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World (Book)
  David Lobell, Marshall Burke (eds.)
  Springer, 2010
• Solar powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano-Sahel
  Jen Burney, Lennart Woltering, Marshall Burke, Roz Naylor, Dov Pasternak
  PNAS, 2010
• The poverty implications of climate-induced yield changes by 2030
  Tom Hertel, Marshall Burke, David Lobell
  Global Environmental Change, 2010
• On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change
  David Lobell, Marshall Burke
  Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2010
• Warming increases risk of civil war in Africa
  Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, David Lobell
  PNAS, 2009
• Shifts in African crop climates to 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation
  Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Luigi Guarino
  Global Environmental Change 17, 317-325, 2009
• Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation
  David Lobell, Marshall Burke
  Environmental Research Letters, 2008
• Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030
  David Lobell, Marshall Burke, et al.
  Science 319, 607-610, 2008
• A global model tracking water, nitrogen, and land inputs and virtual transfers from industrialized meat production and trade
  Marshall Burke, Kirsten Oleson, Ellen McCullough, Joanne Gaskell
  Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 2008
• Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture
  Roz Naylor, David Battisti, Dan Vimont, Walter Falcon, Marshall Burke
  PNAS, 2007
• International trade in meat - the tip of the pork chop
  Jim Galloway, Marshall Burke, et al.
  Ambio 36(8), 2007
• The ripple effect: biofuels, food security, and the environment
  Roz Naylor, Adam Liska, Marshall Burke, et al.
  Environment 49, 30-43, 2007

Other Writing

• The climate benefits of the Green New Deal
  Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh
  Scientific American, March 2019
• Paris agreement could save trillions in avoided climate damages
  Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh
  The Hill, May 2018
• Climate and conflict: no stigma
  Nature (correspondence), March 2018
• Analysis of statistical power reconciles climate-conflict results in Africa
  Sol Hsiang, Kyle Meng, Mark Cane, Ted Miguel, Marshall Burke
  Working paper, December 2015
• Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict
  Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang
  LA Times, December 2015
• Costs and benefits of climate change
  Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang
  Wall Street Journal, November 2015
• Temperature and violence (Comment on Raleigh et al)
  Marshall Burke, Mark Cane, Ted Miguel, Sol Hsiang, David Lobell, Kyle Meng, Shanker Satyanath
  Nature Climate Change, April 2014
• Weather and violence
  Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, Ted Miguel
  New York Times, August 2013
• Climate robustly linked to African civil war (Comment on Buhaug 2010)
  Marshall Burke, Ted Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, John Dykema, David Lobell
  PNAS, 2010