John Taylor’s Papers by Date from 1968-2011
1968 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 2015          



“Using Hybrid Macro-Econometric Models to Design and Evaluate Fiscal Consolidation Strategies,” Hoover Economics Working Paper 15117, December 2015 pdf

“Opening Remarks for "The Fed at a Crossroads: Where to Go Next?” Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Brookings, Institution October 15, 2015 pdf

“Recreating the 1940s-Founded Institutions for Today's Global Economy,” Remarks upon receiving the Truman Medal for Economic Policy October 14, 2015 pdf

“Preface,” in Making Failure Feasible, with Thomas Jackson, Kenneth Scott (Eds.), Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, California, 2015, pp. xi-xv pdf

“A Tractable Framework for Analyzing a Class of Nonstationary Markov Models,” with Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar, and Inna Tsener, NBER Working Paper Number 21155, May 2015 pdf

“Getting Back to a Rules-Based Monetary Strategy,” presented at the Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, March 20, 2015 pdf


“Introduction to Frameworks for Central Banking in the Next Century,” with Michael Bordo, A Special Issue of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 49, December 2014, pp. 1-3 pdf

“Inflation Targeting in Emerging Markets: the Global Experience,” Keynote Address, Fourteen Years of Inflation Targeting in South Africa and The Challenge of a Changing Mandate, South African Reserve Bank Conference Series, 2014, pp. 1-18 pdf

“Rapid Growth or Stagnation: An Economic Policy Choice,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 36 (4) July/August 2014, pp. 641-649 pdf

“The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 104 (5), May 2014, pp. 61-66 pdf

“Re-Normalize, Don't New-Normalize Monetary Policy,” Macroeconomic Review, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Vol. 13, October 2014, pp. 86-90 pdf, Wkg Paper, also presented at the IMF Conference on Monetary Policy in the New Normal, April 13, 2014, Washington, D.C.

“Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A 10-Year Perspective,” Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, Martin Baily and John B. Taylor (Eds.), Hoover Press, 2014.pdf, Wkg Paper, prepared for the October 1, 2013 Brookings/Hoover Financial Crisis Conference, December 2013


“International Monetary Policy Coordination: Past, Present and Future,” BIS Working Paper 43, December, 2013 pdf

“Simple Rules for Financial Stability,” Financial Markets Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Stone Mountain, Georgia, SIEPR Discussion Paper 12-031, April 9, 2013 pdf

“Remarks on Monetary Policy Challenges,” Bank of England Conference on “Challenges to Central Banks in the 21st Century” in Honor of Mervyn King, SIEPR Discussion Paper 12-032, March 26, 2013 pdf

“Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update for the Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013” with John F. Cogan, Volker Wieland, Maik Wolters, SIEPR Discussion Paper 12-033, March 18, 2013 pdf

“The Effectiveness of Central Bank Independence Versus Policy Rules,” Business Economics, 48 (3), July 2013, pp. 155-162., pdf, Wkg Paper, presented at AEA Annual Meetings, January 4, 2013

“Monetary Policy During the Past 30 Years With Lessons for the Next 30 Years,”The Cato Journal, Volume 33, 2013 pdf

“Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation”  (with Andrew Levin), The Great Inflation, Athanasios Orphanides and Michael Bordo (Eds.),University Chicago Press, 2013, pp. 217-253 pdf

“Swings in the Rules-Discretion Balance,” Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics, Roman Frydman and Edmund S. Phelps (Eds.), Princeton University Press, 2013, pp. 373-388 pdf

“Fiscal Consolidation Strategy” with John F. Cogan, Volker Wieland, Maik Wolters, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (2), February 2013, pp. 404-421 pdf

“International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 35 (3), May/June 2013, pp. 463-472 pdf


“A Comparison of Government Regulation of Risk  in the Financial Services and Nuclear Power Industries” with Frank A. Wolak, The Nuclear Enterprise, Sidney Drell and George P. Shultz (Eds.), Hoover Institution Press, Stanford California, 2012, pp. 275-296 pdf

“The Dual Nature of Forecast Targeting and Instrument Rules: A Comment on Michael Woodford’s ‘Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice,’” George A. Kahn, Evan F. Koenig, and Robert Leeson, (Eds.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, Hoover Institution Press, 2012, pp. 235-244 pdf

“Introduction,” Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, Lee Ohanian, John B. Taylor, Ian Wright (Eds.), Hoover Press, Stanford, 2012, pp. 1-9 pdf

“Preface,” Bankruptcy Not Bailout: A Special Chapter 14, with Kenneth E. Scott (Eds.), Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, California, 2012, pp. ix-xii. pdf

“What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package,” (with John F. Cogan), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, , Lee Ohanian, John B. Taylor, Ian Wright (Eds.) Hoover Press, Stanford, 2012, pp. 85-114 pdf

“Questions about recent Monetary Policy,” Centennial Celebration of Milton Friedman and the Power of Ideas, University of Chicago, November 2012 pdf

“Commentary on Capital Flows and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy,” Discussion at BIS Conference, June 2012 pdf

“Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program,” (with Johannes C. Stroebel), International Journal of Central Banking, 8 (2), June 2012, pp. 1-42 pdf

“Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras,” Journal of Money Credit and Banking ,44 (6), September 2012, pp. 1017-1032 pdf

“Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Model Data Base,” (with Volcker Wieland), Review of Economics and Statistics,94 (3), August 2012, pp. 800-816 pdf

Towards an Exit Strategy: Discretion or Rules?, Translated into Italian. E-book. Torino, IBL Libri, 2012 pdf, e-book on Kindle

“Why We Still Need To Read Hayek,” The Hayek Prize Lecture, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, May 31, 2012 pdf


“Origins and Policy Implications of the Crisis,” in Roger Porter (Ed.) New Directions in Financial Services Regulation, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2011, pp. 13-22. pdf

“Macroeconomic Lessons from the Great Deviation,” in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford (Eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 25, The University of Chicago Press, 25, 2011, pp. 387-395 pdf

“Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy,” with John C. Williams, Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3, Elsevier, 2011, pp. 829-859 pdf Wkg Paper

“The State of the U.S. Economy,” in the State of the World Economy, 2011-12: Whither or Wither, U.S.- Korea Institute at SAIS and the Korea Institute of Finance, 2011, pp. 57-70 pdf

“Legislating a Rule for Monetary Policy,” Cato Institute’s 28th Annual Monetary Conference, Asset Bubbles and Monetary Policy, The Cato Journal, 31 (3), Fall 2011, pp. 407-415 pdf

"The Rules-Discretion Cycle in Monetary and Fiscal Policy,"Finnish Economic Papers , 24 (2), Autumn 2011, pp. 78-86 pdf

“An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s,”Journal of Economic Literature , 49 (3), September 2011, pp. 686-702 pdf

“The Cycle of Rules and Discretion in Economic Policy,” National Affairs, Spring 2011, pp. 55-65 pdf

“Review of Allan Meltzer’s A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 58 (2), March 2011 pp. 183-189 pdf

“Historical Evidence on the Benefits of Rules-Based Economic Policies,” address before the Joint Luncheon of the American Economic Association and American Finance Association, January 7, 2011 pdf


“Better Living through Monetary Economics,” in John Siegfried (ed.) Better Living Through Economics, Harvard University Press, 2010, pp. 146-163 pdf

“Commentary: Monetary Policy after the Fall,” Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2010, pp. 337-348 pdf

“Comments on the ‘Global Effects of Fiscal Stimulus During the Crisis’ by Charles Freedman, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Dick Muir, Susanna Mursula” (presented at Carnegie Rochester Conference November 2009), Journal of Monetary Economics, 57 (5), 2010, pp. 527-530" pdf

“Comments on ‘Trade-offs in Monetary Policy’ by Milton Friedman,” in David Laidler’s Contributions to Economics, Palgrave MacMillan, 2010, pp. 118-121 pdf (comments follow Friedman's article)

“Defining Systemic Risk Operationally,” in Kenneth Scott, George Shultz and John B. Taylor (Eds.) Ending Government Bailouts As We Know Them, Hoover Press, Stanford, California, 2010, pp. 33-57 pdf

“Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets,” L. K. Jha Memorial Lecture, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, February 24, 2010 pdf

“New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers,” (with John F. Cogan, Tobias Cwik, and Volcker Wieland), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34 (3), March 2010, pp. 281-295 pdf, Wkg Paper

“Getting Back on Track: Macroeconomic Policy Lessons from the Financial Crisis” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May June 2010, 165-176 pdf

“Does the Crisis Experience Call for a New Paradigm in Monetary Policy?” Warsaw School of Economics, (June 23), CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 402, 2010 pdf

“Remarks at a Panel on the Monetary Policy Implications of the Global Crisis,” presented at the International Journal of Central Banking Conference, hosted by the Bank of Japan, September, 16-17 2010 pdf

“Systemic Risk and the Role of Government,” Keynote speech at the Conference on Financial Innovation and Crises, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, May 12, 2009, published in Risco E Regulacao, Marcio Garcia and Fabio Gaimbiagi (Eds.), Campus/Elsevier, 2010 (Portuguese translation), pp. 19-28 pdf Portuguese


“A Black Swan in the Money Market,” (with John C. Williams), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1 (1), January 2009, pp. 58-83 pdf Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series, 2008-04, April 2008 pdf “Further Results on a Black Swan in the Money Market,” with John C. Williams, SIEPR Discussion Paper No. 07-046, May 2008 pdf

“The Need to Return to a Monetary Framework,” Business Economics, 44 (2), 2009, pp. 63-72pdf January 3, 2009 slides

“Comment on Economics of the Primary Dealer Credit Facility,” Slide Presentation at the AEA Meetings, January 4, 2009 slides

“The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 99 (2), May 2009, pp. 550-555 pdf January 4, 2009 slides

“Monetary Policy and the Recent Extraordinary Measures Taken by the Federal Reserve,” Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 26, 2009 pdf

“Empirically Evaluating Economic Policy in Real Time,” Inaugural Martin Feldstein Lecture, NBER Reporter, 3, July 2009 pdf

“Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk Regulation,” Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, July 9, 2009 pdf

“Should the G-20 Reconsider the Decision to Treble IMF Recourses?” Renewing Globalization and Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis World: The Future of the G-20 Agenda, Carnegie Mellon University Press, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, August 2009, pp. 77-79 pdf

“Analysis of Daily Retail Sales Data during the Financial Panic of 2008,” Stanford University, October, 2009 pdf

“Testimony,” Subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, Committee on the Judiciary United States House of Representatives, October 22, 2009 pdf

“The Term Structure of Policy Rules,” with Josephine Smith, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (7), 2009, pp. 907-917 pdf “The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules,” with Josephine Smith, NBER Working Paper Number 13635, November 2007 pdf

“Government Actions and Interventions, More Harm Than Good?” Development Outreach, The World Bank Institute, D.C., December 2009, pp. 50-53 pdf

“Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve: A Dialog on What We Have Learned,” with Robert M. Solow and N. Gregory Mankiw in Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy, Jeff Fuhrer et al. (Eds.) MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2009, pp. 71-98 pdf

“Globalization and Monetary Policy: Missions Impossible,” in Mark Gertler and Jordi Gali (Eds.) The International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, The University of Chicago Press, 2009, pp. 609-624 pdf

“Introduction,” (with John Ciorciari), in John Ciorciari and John Taylor (Eds.) The Road Ahead For the Fed, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, 2009 pdf

The Need for a Clear and Credible Exit Strategy,” in John Ciorciari and John Taylor (Eds.) The Road Ahead for the Fed, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, 2009, pp. 85-100 pdf


“A Review of the Productivity Resurgence,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 30 (4), July/August, 2008, pp. 619-626 pdf

“The Costs and Benefits of Deviating from the Systematic Component of Monetary Policy,” Keynote address at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Markets, February 22, 2008 pdf

“Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy,” Testimony before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, February 26, 2008 pdf

“The Impact of Globalization on Monetary Policy,” in Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy, Banque de France, March 2008, pp. 257-263 pdf

“The Importance of Being Predictable,”Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, July/August, 2008 pdf

"The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," A Festschrift in Honour of David Dodge's Contributions to Canadian Public Policy, Bank of Canada, November 2008, pp. 1-18 pdf Reprinted in Critical Review, 21 (2-3), 2009, pp. 341-364 pdf

“The State of the Economy and Principles for Fiscal Stimulus,” Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate, November 19, 2008 pdf

“The Way Back to Stability and Growth in the Global Economy,” The Mayekawa Lecture, IMES Discussion Paper Series 2008-E-14, July 2008, and in Monetary and Economic Studies, December 2008, pp. 37-47 pdf


“The 2002 Uruguayan Financial Crisis: Five Years Later,” The 2002 Uruguayan Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath, World Bank Conference Volume, December 2007 Spanish pdf

“The Financial Front in the War on Terror,” Policy Panel on the Economics of National Security, AEA Annual Meetings, Chicago, IL, January 5, 2007 pdf

“Housing and Monetary Policy,” in Housing, Housing Finance, and Monetary Policy proceedings of FRB of Kansas City Symposium, Jackson Hole, WY, September 2007 pdf

“The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules,” Business Economics, 42 (4), October 2007, pp. 8-15 pdf

“Do We Get More Out of Theory Than We Put In?” Central Banking, 18 (2), November 2007,pp. 23-27 pdf

“Lessons of the Financial Crisis for the Design of the New International Financial Architecture,” The 2002 Uruguayan Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath, World Bank Conference Volume, December 2007 Spanish, pdf

“Thirty-five Years of Model Building for Monetary Policy Evaluation: Breakthroughs, Dark Ages, and a Renaissance,” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2007 pdf

“The Dual Nature of Forecast Targeting and Instrument Rules: A Comment on Michael Woodford’s ‘Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice,’” R. Leeson and E. Koenig (Eds.) Macroeconomics and the Taylor Rule, Cambridge University Press, forthcoming, 2010 pdf


“The Policy Support Instrument: A Key Component of the Recent IMF Reform Movement,” in Reforming the IMF for the 21st Century, Edwin M. Truman (ed.), Institute for International Economics, April 20, 2006 pdf

“The Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy,” prepared for Academic Consultants Meeting, Federal Reserve Board, September 2006 pdf

“Lessons from the Recovery from the ‘Lost Decade’ in Japan: The Case of the Great Intervention and Money Injection,” Background paper for the International Conference of the Economic and Social Research Institute Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, September 2006 pdf

“Commentary on ‘The Rise of Off-Shoring’: It’s Not Wine or Cloth Anymore” by G. Grossman and E. Rossi-Hansberg,” Jackson Hole Conference Volume, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2006 pdf

“Economic Reform and the Current Account: Implementing the Strategy,” IMF Conference on the Current Account, 2006 pdf

“Lessons Learned from the Implementation of Inflation Targeting,” in Stability and Economic Growth: The Role of the Central Bank, Banco de Mexico, 2006, pp. 229-236 pdf


“The International Implications of October 1979: Toward a Long Boom on a Global Scale,” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 87 (2), Part 2, March/April 2005, pp. 269-276 pdf

“Commentary: Understanding the Greenspan Standard,” Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 2005, pp. 107-118 pdf

"China's Quiet Revolution," Hoover Digest (3) 2005 pdf

"Monetary Policy Modeling: Where Are We and Where Should We Be Going," in Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2005, pp. 328-334 pdf


“Strengthening the Global Economy: A Report on the Bush Adminstration Agenda,” Business Economics, 38 (1), January, 2003, pp. 34-38 pdf

“Increasing Economic Growth and Stability in Emerging Markets,” The Cato Journal, 23 (1), Spring/Summer 2003, pp. 127 -134 pdf


“A Half-Century of Changes in Monetary Policy,” Conference in Honor of Milton Friedman, University of Chicago, November 8, 2002 pdf

“The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules,” in Norman Loayza and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Eds.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, Santiago, Chile, Central Bank of Chile, 2002, pp 21-46 pdf

“New Policies for Economic Development,” Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2002 pdf


“Commentary: Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy,” Economic Policy for the Information Economy, Federal Reserved Bank of Kansas City, 2001, pp. 279-284 pdf

“How the Rational Expectations Revolution has Changed Macroeconomic Policy Research,” Advances in Macroeconomics, (International Economics Association Conference Volume), Jacques Dreze (ed). Palgrave 2001 pdf

“Using Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies,” in Stabilization and Monetary Policy: The International Experience, proceedings of a conference at the Bank of Mexico, 2001 pdf

“An Interview with Milton Friedman,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 5 (1), February 2001, pp. 101-131 pdf

“Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate,” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 83 (4), July-August 2001, pp 33-47 pdf

“Low Inflation, Deflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability,” The Role of Monetary Policy Under Low Inflation: Deflationary Shocks and their Policy Responses, Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition), Bank of Japan, February 2001, pp. 35-51 pdf

“The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Rules,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91 (2), May 2001, pp. 263-267 pdf


“Remarks on ‘Recent Changes in Trend and Cycle,’” Conference on Structural Change and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, March 2000 pdf

“Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 90 (2), May 2000, pp. 90-94 pdf

“Introduction to Policy Panel,” Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty, European Central Bank and Center for Financial Studies, June 2000, p. 18 pdf

“Recent Developments in the Use of Monetary Policy Rules,” Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies, Bank Indonesia and International Monetary Fund, July 2000, pp. 207-219 pdf

“Summary Remarks,” in Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies, Bank Indonesia and International Monetary Fund, July 2000, pp. 290-293 pdf

“Comments on ‘Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era’ by David Reifschneider and John Williams,’” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 32 (4), Part 2, November 2000, pp. 973-978 pdf

“Alternative Views of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: What Difference Do They Make for Monetary Policy?” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16 (4). Winter 2000, pp. 60-73 pdf

“Comments on ‘Making Policy in a Changing World’ by William C. Brainard and George L. Perry,” in George L. Perry and James Tobin (Eds.), Economic Events, Ideas, and Policies: The 1960s and After, Brookings Washington, D.C. 2000, pp. 72-82 pdf

“Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms,” European Economic Review, 44 (7), 2000, pp. 1389-1408 pdf

“The Policy Rule Mix: A Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation” in Guillermo Calvo, Rudi Dornbusch, and Maurice Obstfeld (Eds.) Money, Capital Mobility and Trade, Essays in Honor of Robert Mundell, MIT Press, 2000, pp. 505-518 pdf

“Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (3), 2000, pp. 21-36 pdf

“Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Experience and Research,” presented at the 12th Meeting of the Latin American Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries, Inter-American Development Bank, May 12, 2000 (slides) ppt

“Comments on Athanasios Orphanides' The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation,” Stanford University, January 8, 2000 (slides) ppt


“Comments on Monetary Policy under Uncertainty,” in Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, September 1999, pp. 6-9 pdf

“The ECB and the Taylor Rule,” International Economy, September/October 1998. Reprinted in the Hoover Digest 1999, No. 1 with title “What the European Central Bank Needs to Do.” pdf

“Commentary: ‘Challenges for Monetary Policy: New and Old’ by Mervyn King” in New Challenges for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1999, pp. 59-67 pdf

“An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules,” in John B. Taylor (ed.) Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press, 1999 pdf

“Introductory Remarks on Monetary Policy Rules,” in John B. Taylor (ed.) Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press, 1999 pdf

“The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 43 (3), 1999, pp. 655-679 pdf

“Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics” in John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford (Eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, North-Holland, Elsevier, 1, Part 2, 1999, pp. 1009-1050 pdf

“The New Normative Macroeconomics,” XXI Encontro Brasileiro de Econometria, December 9, 1999 (slides) ppt


“Applying Academic Research on Monetary Policy Rules: An Exercise in Translational Economics,” The Harry G. Johnson Lecture, The Manchester School Supplement, Blackwell Publishers, 66, June 1998, pp. 1-16 pdf

“Monetary Policy and the Long Boom: The Homer Jones Lecture,” Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November/December 1998, pp. 3-11 pdf

“Information Technology and Monetary Policy,” Monetary and Economic Studies, 16(2), December 1998, pp. 19-28 pdf

“Implications of the Globalization of World Financial Markets: An Overview,” in The Implications of the Globalization of World Financial Markets, Bank of Korea, 1998, pp. 309-315 pdf


“A Core of Practical Macroeconomics,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 87(2), May 1997, pp. 233-235 pdf Reprinted in Choices, Fourth Quarter, 1997, pp. 10-12. Condensed version in Hoover Digest 1998, No. 3 with the title “Five Things We Know for Sure.” pdf

“Comment on ‘America’s Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s’ by J. Bradford De Long,” in Christina Romer and David Romer (Eds.) Reducing Inflation, University of Chicago Press, 1997 pdf

“Comments on ‘Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity: Why Do We Still Ask This Question?’ by Benjamin Friedman,” in Monetary Policy in an Integrated Framework, 1997 pdf

“Comments on ‘Econometric Models of the Monetary Policy Process’ by David L. Reifscheider, David J. Stockton and David Wilcox,” Carnegie Rochester Conference Series in Public Policy, 47, 1997, pp. 39-42 pdf

“Comment on ‘Tax Policy and Investment’ by Kevin Hasset and R. Glenn Hubbard” in Alan Auerbach (ed.) Fiscal Policy, MIT Press, 1997 pdf

"The Growth That Matters Most," Hoover Digest, (1) 1997, pp. 18-21 pdf


“Policy Rules as a Means to a More Effective Monetary Policy,” Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 14 (1), July 1996, pp. 28-39 pdf

“How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Shocks while Maintaining Long-Run Price Stability: Conceptual Issues,” in Achieving Price Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1996, pp. 181-195 pdf


“Review of Changes in American Economic Policy in the 1980s: Watershed or Pendulum Swing?” Martin Feldstein (ed.), Journal of Economic Literature, 33 (2), June 1995, pp. 777-784 pdf

“The Monetary Transmissions Mechanism: An Empirical Framework,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4), Fall 1995, pp. 11-26 pdf

“The Monetary Policy Implications of Greater Fiscal Discipline,” in Budget, Debt, and Deficits: Issues and Solutions, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1995, pp. 151-170 pdf

“Stabilization Policy and Long-Term Economic Growth,” in Gavin Wright and Ralph Landau (Eds.) Growth and Development: The Economics of the 21st Century, 1995 pdf


“Comment on ‘The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP’ by Martin Feldstein and James Stock,” in N. Greg Mankiw (ed.) Monetary Policy, University of Chicago Press, 1994 pdf

“The Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff Revisited,” in Jeffrey Fuhrer (ed.) Goals Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1994 pdf


“Macroeconomic Policy and Unemployment in the 1990s,” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, January 1993 pdf

“The Use of the New Macroeconometrics for Policy Formulation,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 83 (2), May 1993, pp. 300-305 pdf

“Forecasting with Rational Expectations Models,” with John Williams, Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper, December 1993 pdf

“Comments on ‘Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Research on Empirical Macroeconomics,’” in Ralph Bryant, et al. (Eds.) Evaluating Policy Regimes, The Brookings Institution, 1993 pdf

“Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice,” Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, North-Holland, 39, 1993, pp. 195-214 pdf Also released as Stanford Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, now SIEPR) Publication No. 327, November 1992 pdf


“Comments on ‘Microeconomic Rigidities and Aggregate Price Dynamics’ by Ricardo Caballero and Eduardo Engle,” European Economic Review, 37(4), May 1992, pp. 714-717 pdf

“The Great Inflation, The Great Disinflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability,” in Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.) Inflation, Disinflation and Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia, Ambassador Press, Sydney, July 1992 pdf

“The Budgetary Arithmetics of Loan Guarantees and Deposit Insurance: A Comment,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, 37, December 1992, pp. 123-125 pdf

“Comment on ‘Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations from Six Industrialized Countries’ by Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin” in Oliver Blanchard and Stanley Fischer (Eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, MIT Press, 7, 1992, pp. 234-237 pdf

“Price Stabilization in the 1990s: A Summary,” in Kumiharu Shigehara (ed.) Price Stabilization in the 1990s, University of Tokyo Press, 1992 pdf

“Synchronized Wage Determination and Macroeconomic Performance in Seven Large Countries,” in Alessandro Vercelli and Nicola Dimitri (Eds.) Macroeconomics: A Survey of Strategic Strategies, Oxford University Press, 1992, pp. 321-344 pdf


“Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 69 (2), May 1979, pp. 108-113. Reprinted in N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer (Eds.) New Keynesian Economics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1991 pdf


“Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods” (with H. Uhlig), Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 8(1), January 1990, pp. 1-17 pdf

“Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations,” (with R. Fair), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 5(4), Oct-Dec 1990, pp. 381-392 pdf

“Solving Stochastic Equilibrium Models with the Extended Path Method” (with J.E. Gagnon), Economic Modeling, 7, July 1990, pp. 251-257 pdf

“Comments on ‘Multi-country Modeling of Financial Markets’ by J. Helliwell, J. Cockerline, and Robert Lafrance,” in Financial Sectors in Open Economies: Empirical Analysis and Policy Issues, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1990 pdf

“Comments on ‘The Financial System and Economic Performance’ by Robert C. Merton,” Journal of Financial Services Research, 4 (4), 1990, pp. 301-305 pdf


“The Evolution of Ideas in Macroeconomics,” The Economic Record, 65, June 1989, pp. 185-189 pdf

“Monetary Policy and the Stability of Macroeconomic Relationships,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4(Supplement), December 1989, pp. S161-S178 pdf

“Differences in Economic Fluctuations in Japan, the U.S. and Europe: The Role of Nominal Rigidities,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 3, 1989, pp. 127-144 pdf

“Policy Analysis with a Multicountry Model,” in Ralph Bryant, D. Currie, J. Frenkel, P. Masson, and R. Portes (Eds.) Macroeconomics Policies in an Interdependent World, International Monetary Fund, 1989, pp. 122-141 pdf


“Deficits, Economic Stabilization and Growth,” presented at the Center for Economic Policy Research Conference on Tax and Budget Policy for the 1990s, Washington, DC, May 1988 pdf

“Japanese Macroeconomic Policy and the Current Account Under Alternative International Monetary Regimes,” Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 6(1), May 1988, pp. 1-36 pdf

“Synchronized Wage Determination and Macroeconomic Performance in Japan,” paper presented at MITI Conference, Tokyo, Japan, December 1988 pdf

“Comments on ‘Equilibrium Interpretations of Employment and Real Wages’ by John Kennan,” in S. Fischer (ed.) Macroeconomics Annual, 3, 1988 pdf

“Comments on ‘A Method for Determining Whether Parameters in Aggregate Models are Structural’ by Michael Parkin,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 29, North-Holland, 1988, pp. 253-257 pdf

“The Current Account and Macroeconomic Policy: An Econometric Analysis,” in Albert E. Burger (ed.) The U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures, 12th Annual Economic Policy Conference Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Kluwer Academic Publishing, Boston, MA, 1988 pdf

“Involuntary Unemployment,” in J. Eatwell, M. Milgate, and P. Newman (Eds.) The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economic Theory and Doctrine, Stockton Press, New York, NY, 1988 pdf

“A Summary of the Empirical and Analytical Results and the Implications for International Monetary Policy,” in Suzuki, Yoshio and Mitsuaki Okabe (Eds.) Toward a World of Economic Stability: Optimal Monetary Framework and Policy, University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo, Japan, 1988, pp. 17-34 pdf

“The Treatment of Expectations in Large Multicountry Models,” in R. Bryant et al. (Eds.) Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, 1988, pp. 161-182 pdf

“Wage Determination and Monetary Policy,” prepared for Academic Consultants Meeting, Federal Reserve Board, 1987-1988 pdf


Tables for “Simulations of the Current Account in a Multicountry Rational Expectations Econometric Model” (with Tamin Bayoumi), memorandum prepared for Workshop on U.S. Current Account Imbalance, Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics, 59A, March 1987 pdf

“Externalities Associated with Nominal Price and Wage Rigidities,” in W. Barnett and K. Singleton (Eds.) New Approaches to Monetary Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1987, pp. 350-367 pdf

“The Role of Contracts in Macroeconomic Performance,” in H. Nalbantian (ed.) Incentives, Cooperation and Risk Sharing: Economic and Psychological Perspectives on Employment Contracts, Rowman and Littlefield, Totowa, New Jersey, 1987, pp. 189-201 pdf


“An Econometric Evaluation of International Monetary Policy Rules: Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates,” October 1986 pdf

“An Appeal for Rationality in the Policy Activism Debate,” in R.W. Hafer (ed.) The Monetary And Fiscal Policy Debate: Lessons from Two Decades, Rowman and Allanheld, Totowa, New Jersey, 1986, pp. 151-163 pdf

“Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices,” in Robert J. Gordon (ed.) The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1986 pdf

“New Econometric Approaches to Stabilization Policy in Stochastic Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations,” in Z. Griliches and M. Intriligator (Eds.) Handbook of Econometrics, 3, North-Holland, 1986 pdf


“International Capital Mobility and the Coordination of Monetary Rules” (with Nicholas Carlozzi), in J. Bhandhari (ed.) Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty, MIT Press, 1985 pdf

“International Coordination in the Design of Macroeconomic Policy Rules,” European Economic Review, 28, 1985, pp. 53-81 pdf

"Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics, NBER Working Paper Number 1224, 1983 pdf, also in K.J. Arrow and S. Honkapohja (Eds.) Frontier of Economics, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1985

“What Would Nominal GNP Targeting Do to the Business Cycle?” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22, North-Holland, 1985 pdf


“Estimation and Solution of Linear Rational Expectations Models Using a Polynomial Matrix Factorization” (with C. Ates Dagli), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 8, 1984, pp. 341-348 pdf

“Rational Expectations and Business Cycles,” prepared for presentation at National Association of Business Economists Meeting, Atlanta, September 1984 pdf

“Recent Changes in Macro Policy and Its Effects: Some Time Series Evidence,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 74 (2), May 1984, pp. 206-210 pdf


“Comments on ‘Wage Rigidity and Unemployment in OECD Countries’ by D. Grubb, R. Jackman and R. Layard,” European Economic Review, 21 (1), March/April 1983, pp. 45-49 pdf

“Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models” (with R.C. Fair), Econometrica, 51 (4), July 1983, pp. 1169-1185 pdf

“Union Wage Settlements During a Disinflation,” American Economic Review, 73 (5), December 1983, pp. 981-993 pdf

“Comments on ‘Equilibrium Theory with Learning and Disparate Expectations: Some Issues and Methods’ by Robert M. Townsend,” in R. Frydman and E.S. Phelps (Eds.) Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: “Rational Expectations” Examined, Cambridge University Press, 1983 pdf

“Comments on ‘Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy’ by R.J. Barro and D.B. Gordon,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 12 (1), 1983, pp. 123-125 pdf

“Comments on ‘Staggered Contracts and Exchange Rate Policy’ by Guillermo Calvo,” in J. Frenkel (ed.) Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press for National Bureau of Economic Research, 1983 pdf

“Interview” in Conversations with Economists, Arjo Klamer (ed.) Rowman and Littlefield Savage, Maryland, 1983, pp. 170-176 pdf

“Optimal Stabilization Rules in a Stochastic Model of Investment with Gestation Lags,” in S. Karlin, T. Amemiya, and L.A. Goodman (Eds.) Studies in Econometrics, Time Series, and Multivariate Statistics, Academic Press, 1983 pdf

“Rational Expectations and the Invisible Handshake,” in J. Tobin (ed.) Macroeconomics, Prices, and Quantities, The Brookings Institution, 1983 pdf


“Establishing Credibility: A Rational Expectations Viewpoint,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 72 (2), May 1982, pp. 81-85 pdf

“The Role of Expectations in the Choice of Monetary Policy,” in Monetary Policy Issues for the 1980s, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, December 1982, pp. 47-76 pdf

“Comments on ‘Labor Market Contracts and Inflation’ by D.J.B. Mitchell and L.J. Kimball,” in M.N. Baily (ed.) Workers, Jobs, and Inflation, The Brookings Institution, 1982 pdf

“Comments on ‘Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability and Inflation’ by Stanley Fisher,” Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, 1, 1982 pdf

“Macroeconomic Tradeoffs in an International Economy with Rational Expectations,” in W. Hildenbrand (ed.) Advances in Economic Theory, Cambridge University Press, 1982 pdf

“Policy Choice and Economic Structure,” Occasional Papers, 9, Group of Thirty, New York, 1982 pdf

“The Swedish Investment Funds System as a Stabilization Policy Rule,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1982 pdf


“Stabilization, Accommodation, and Monetary Rules,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 71 (2), May 1981, pp. 145-149 pdf

“Review of Macroeconomic Theory by Thomas J. Sargent,” Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1981 pdf

“Economic Theory, Model Size, and Model Purpose,” in J. Kmenta and J.B. Ramsey (Eds.) Large Scale Macro-Econometric Models, North-Holland, 1981, pp. 177-190 pdf

“On the Relation Between the Variability of Inflation and the Average Inflation Rate,” in K. Brunner and A.H. Meltzer (Eds.) The Costs and Consequence of Inflation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 15, North-Holland, 1981 pdf


“Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts,” Journal of Political Economy, 88 (1), February 1980, pp. 1-23 pdf

“‘Forward’ to Special Issues on Rational Expectations Analysis,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, February 1980, pp. 1-5 pdf

“Output and Price Stability: An International Comparison,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2 (1), February 1980, pp. 109-132 pdf

“Review of Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy by Stephen J. Turnovsky,” Journal of Political Economy, August 1980 pdf

“An Inequality for a Sum of Quadratic Forms with Applications to Probability Theory” (with T.W. Anderson), Linear Algebra and Its Applications, 1980, pp. 93-99 pdf

“On the Possibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy: A Comment,” in S. Fischer (ed.) Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, University of Chicago Press, 1980 pdf

“Recent Developments in the Theory of Stabilization Policy,” in L. Meyer (ed.) Stabilization Policy: Lessons from the 1970s and Implications for the 1980s, Working Paper No. 53, Center for the Study of American Business, April 1980. Reprinted in Economic Perspectives, An Annual Survey of Economics, 3, 1984 pdf


“An Econometric Business Cycle Model with Rational Expectations: Some Estimation Results,” June 1979 pdf

“Review of Contemporary Economic Problems 1978,” William Fellner (ed.) Journal of Economic Literature, 17 (2), June 1979, pp. 562-564 pdf

“An Econometric Business Cycle Model with Rational Expectations: Policy Evaluation Results,” December 1979 pdf

“Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations,” Econometrica, 47 (5), September 1979, pp. 1267-1286. Reprinted in R.E. Lucas and T.J. Sargent (Eds.) Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, University of Minnesota Press, 1981 pdf

“Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 69 (2), May 1979, pp. 108-113. Reprinted in N. Gregory Mankiw and David Romer (Eds.) New Keynesian Economics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1991 pdf


“Comments on Temporal and Sectoral Aggregation of Seasonally Adjusted Time Series,” in Arnold Zellner (ed.) Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1978 pdf

“Econometric Models of Criminal Behavior: A Review,” in J. Heinke (ed.) Contributions to Economic Analysis Series: Economic Models of Criminal Behavior, North-Holland, 1978 pdf


“Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations,” Econometrica, 45 (6), September 1977, pp. 1377-1385 pdf

“The Determinants of Economic Policy with Rational Expectations,” Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, December 1977 pdf

“Control Theory and Economic Stabilization: A Comment,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 7, 1977, pp. 93-98 pdf

“The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View” (with P. Passell), American Economic Review, 67 (3), June 1977, pp. 445-451. Reprinted in Thomas D. Cook (ed.) Evaluation Studies Review Annual, Sage Publications, 1978 pdf

“Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations” (with E.S. Phelps), Journal of Political Economy, 85 (1), February 1977, pp. 163-190. Reprinted in E.S. Phelps (ed.) Studies in Macroeconomic Theory: Employment and Inflation, Academic Press, 1979 pdf


“On An Efficient Two-Step Estimator for Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Models with Autoregressive Errors” (with P.J. Dhrymes), International Economic Review, 17 (2), June 1976, pp. 362-376 pdf

“Methods of Efficient Parameter Estimation in Control Problems,” Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 4, July 1976 pdf

“Strong Consistency of Least Squares Estimates in Normal Regression” (with T.W. Anderson), Annals of Statistics, 4 (4), July 1976, pp.788-790 pdf

“Some Experimental Results on the Statistical Properties of Least Squares Estimates in Control Problems” (with T.W. Anderson), Econometrica, 44 (6), November 1976, pp. 1289-1302 pdf

“The Deterrence Controversy: A Reconsideration of the Time Series Evidence” (with P. Passell), in H. Bedau and C. Pierce (Eds.) Capital Punishment in the United States, AMS Press, 1976 pdf


“Monetary Policy During a Transition to Rational Expectations,” Journal of Political Economy, 83 (5), October 1975, pp. 1009-1021 pdf


“A Criterion for Multiperiod Controls in Economic Models with Unknown Parameters,” Columbia Economics Discussion Paper, January 1974 pdf

“Asymptotic Properties of Multiperiod Control Rules in the Linear Regression Model,” International Economic Review, 15 (2), June 1974, pp. 472-484 pdf


"Multiperiod Optimization in Economic Systems with Unknown Parameters," Dissertation, Stanford University, March 1973 pdf

“Stabilization Policies in a Disequilibrium Growth Model,” Proceedings of IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, December 1973 pdf


“Stabilization Policies in a Growing Economy: A Comment,” Review of Economic Studies, 39 (4), October 1972, pp. 515-519t pdf


“Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policies in a Model of Cyclical Growth,” Undergraduate Thesis, Princeton University, April 5, 1968 pdf

“Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policies in a Model of Endogenous Cyclical Growth,” Research Memorandum No. 104, Econometric Research Program, Princeton University, October 1968 pdf