Worksheet 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis#
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A priori, do you think vaccines or mosquito nets are a better idea, and why?
What are sources of benefit for Malaria prevention? How should we quantify benefit?
What are sources of cost for a vaccination or net distribution campaign? How should we quantify cost?
Mosquito Nets: benefits and costs. Set up a Fermi-style calculation for (a) the benefit and (b) the cost of distributing mosquito nets. Here are some facts that Tselil compiled/condensed to help us:
An unvaccinated child in sub-Saharan Africa will experience 1-3 Malaria infections per year in early childhood.
The infection fatality rate in the population is about 1 death per 400 clinical cases.
An insecticide-treated mosquito net costs $2 to manufacture
One net remains effective in its protection for about 3 years.
On average each net is shared by 2 people.
People sleeping under a net are half as likely to contract Malaria as those sleeping without a net.
(a) Benefit:
(b) Cost:
Vaccines: benefits and costs. Set up a Fermi-style calculation for (a) the benefit and (b) the cost of a vaccination campaign. Here are some additional facts that Tselil compiled/simplified to help us:
The vaccine is most effective if the first dose is followed by a booster 1.5 years later.
Children who receive both doses are 15-25% less likely to die of Malaria than those not vaccinated.
For simplicity, assume children who only get one dose see no change in chance of death.
Attrition: only 35% of children who get one dose follow up with a booster.
That means that you have to give about 4 doses on average per full vaccination (because .65/.35 ~ 2 children will have only one dose for each fully vaccinated child)
A single dose of the vaccine costs $10.
The vaccine must be kept cold and administered by a trained professional.
(a) Benefit
(b) Cost
What is the cost/benefit ratio of each option? Which option is better? Are you surprised?
Which components of our calculation are you least confident in?