Time-Varying R0(t) Results with Data thru 06-August-2020 for

Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Charles I. Jones

Click on a location below to see a 30+ page pdf of extended results for that location

NOTE: Results are highly uncertain in some cases; this is often appreciated by
comparing across multiple graphs. See the paper itself, a summary spreadsheet, a detailed spreadsheet, and data sources.
Cumulative Deaths Daily Deaths
per Million (growth rate, Initial Today's Today's Peak Today's Cumulative Deaths
Location Name Population past week) R0 R0 R0*S/N Infectious Infectious per Million, t+30
New York City (only) 2825 - 2.36 0.54 0.39 5.11% 0.03% 2853
New York City (plus) 2396 - 2.30 0.51 0.39 4.27% 0.02% 2418
New Jersey 1783 - 2.20 0.20 0.06 1.75% 0.74% 1815
New York 1683 - 2.31 0.77 0.64 2.84% 0.02% 1701
Lombardy, Italy 1672 - 2.20 0.20 0.13 2.36% 0.01% 1680
Detroit 1605 - 2.29 0.20 0.08 2.15% 0.12% 1555
Stockholm, Sweden 1461 - 2.20 0.24 0.21 1.68% 0.01% 1470
Boston+Middlesex 1261 0.4% 2.08 1.24 1.09 1.75% 0.10% 1317
Massachusetts 1259 - 1.99 1.15 1.00 1.48% 0.11% 1308
Connecticut 1244 - 2.18 0.37 0.32 1.61% 0.02% 1253
San Marino 1238 - 2.26 0.22 0.19 2.47% 0.28% 1256
Philadelphia 1068 - 2.06 0.97 0.87 1.04% 0.04% 1088
Chicago 951 - 1.91 0.91 0.82 0.77% 0.07% 975
Belgium 850 1.4% 2.13 1.09 0.99 1.51% 0.02% 861
Paris, France 828 1.2% 2.13 1.36 1.24 1.33% 0.02% 846
District of Columbia 831 - 1.82 0.78 0.72 0.88% 0.02% 839
Louisiana 852 1.6% 1.96 1.12 1.02 0.76% 0.40% 1019
Michigan 803 1.1% 2.01 1.29 1.18 1.01% 0.05% 835
United Kingdom 681 - 2.03 1.01 0.94 0.79% 0.04% 700
Andorra 673 - 2.19 0.20 0.08 1.28% 0.10% 685
London, U.K. 652 - 2.11 0.62 0.58 1.21% 0.00% 657
Illinois 642 - 1.80 1.07 1.00 0.50% 0.07% 672
Paris, Ile-de-France 621 1.9% 2.11 1.20 1.12 0.99% 0.02% 634
Spain 609 - 2.09 0.20 0.13 1.03% 0.06% 618
Delaware 600 - 1.53 0.21 0.19 0.45% 0.27% 553
Italy 582 - 1.98 1.01 0.95 0.73% 0.00% 585
Maryland 590 0.8% 1.78 1.11 1.05 0.53% 0.09% 631
Pennsylvania 575 - 1.81 0.95 0.90 0.58% 0.04% 593
Sweden 569 - 1.81 0.20 0.09 0.52% 0.02% 574
Peru 598 - 1.44 0.20 0.14 0.84% 0.32% 671
Mississippi 600 3.8% 1.49 1.26 1.17 0.61% 0.61% 873
Miami 626 6.0% 1.71 1.39 1.29 0.85% 0.85% 996
Chile 506 - 1.64 0.43 0.41 0.56% 0.10% 538
France 462 - 1.96 1.18 1.13 0.81% 0.01% 467
Arizona 525 - 1.24 0.88 0.83 0.60% 0.43% 681
United States 476 1.3% 1.80 1.07 1.02 0.39% 0.18% 554
Indiana 426 - 1.70 1.02 0.97 0.37% 0.08% 458
Brazil 448 - 1.33 1.03 0.99 0.25% 0.24% 550
New York excluding NYC 410 - 1.78 1.06 1.02 0.33% 0.02% 422
U.S. excluding NYC 401 1.3% 1.64 1.06 1.02 0.28% 0.19% 481
Los Angeles 408 1.1% 1.54 1.11 1.06 0.22% 0.22% 514
New Mexico 394 0.0% 1.50 0.96 0.92 0.27% 0.17% 457
Netherlands 359 - 1.84 0.21 0.20 0.50% 0.00% 360
Ireland 357 - 1.76 0.20 0.17 0.62% 0.01% 359
Mexico 376 - 1.23 1.04 1.00 0.28% 0.23% 477
Georgia 374 2.5% 1.62 1.11 1.07 0.27% 0.27% 497
Iowa 338 1.4% 1.38 1.11 1.07 0.28% 0.14% 404
Minnesota 327 1.3% 1.47 1.15 1.11 0.25% 0.06% 358
Colorado 326 0.2% 1.60 0.92 0.89 0.29% 0.06% 345
Atlanta 345 - 1.51 0.20 0.10 0.21% 0.08% 273
Ecuador 328 - 1.16 1.04 1.01 0.34% 0.09% 366
Alabama 340 - 1.35 0.95 0.92 0.27% 0.22% 426
New Hampshire 314 - 1.79 0.79 0.76 0.34% 0.04% 326
Panama 347 - 1.19 0.97 0.93 0.34% 0.29% 462
Ohio 318 1.9% 1.45 1.07 1.04 0.21% 0.14% 379
South Carolina 360 0.4% 1.22 0.96 0.92 0.50% 0.46% 529
Houston (Harris Co.) 300 - 1.26 0.20 0.16 0.39% 0.17% 322
Florida 342 2.9% 1.39 1.16 1.11 0.47% 0.47% 553
Texas 335 0.7% 1.28 0.93 0.89 0.52% 0.49% 504
Virginia 283 6.5% 1.74 1.37 1.33 0.25% 0.15% 391
Nevada 284 2.3% 1.49 1.12 1.08 0.27% 0.27% 410
Armenia 256 - 1.61 0.81 0.79 0.19% 0.09% 287
Switzerland 229 - 1.77 0.20 0.00 0.38% 0.04% 222
Bolivia 276 2.7% 1.18 1.17 1.13 0.38% 0.38% 461
North Macedonia 241 - 1.23 0.98 0.95 0.20% 0.11% 286
California 244 2.2% 1.35 1.14 1.11 0.19% 0.19% 338
Nebraska 218 - 1.26 0.80 0.78 0.20% 0.06% 236
Kentucky 218 - 1.51 0.84 0.82 0.15% 0.07% 242
Washington 213 2.9% 1.47 1.08 1.06 0.17% 0.09% 254
Missouri 210 - 1.53 0.83 0.81 0.16% 0.07% 232
Iran 207 0.0% 1.39 1.00 0.98 0.13% 0.13% 260
Moldova 199 1.3% 1.15 1.12 1.09 0.12% 0.10% 252
North Carolina 205 2.2% 1.34 1.14 1.12 0.15% 0.15% 283
Luxembourg 187 - 1.61 0.20 0.14 0.28% 0.03% 179
Wisconsin 185 3.1% 1.48 1.13 1.11 0.13% 0.09% 231
Colombia 216 2.0% 1.30 1.09 1.07 0.34% 0.34% 368
Portugal 171 - 1.52 0.57 0.56 0.17% 0.01% 173
South Dakota 184 3.5% 1.66 1.26 1.24 0.14% 0.12% 261
North Dakota 174 - 1.26 0.20 0.06 0.15% 0.09% 134
Arkansas 186 3.5% 1.13 1.19 1.16 0.21% 0.21% 297
Tennessee 166 0.6% 1.15 1.05 1.03 0.14% 0.14% 226
Kansas 150 2.2% 1.51 1.02 1.01 0.13% 0.10% 189
Oklahoma 154 2.8% 1.39 1.11 1.09 0.13% 0.13% 216
South Africa 147 1.4% 1.23 1.04 1.02 0.23% 0.23% 244
Honduras 140 - 1.10 0.84 0.82 0.18% 0.17% 193
Romania 127 3.5% 1.16 1.21 1.19 0.10% 0.10% 186
SF Bay Area 122 2.4% 1.16 1.16 1.15 0.08% 0.08% 164
Iraq 123 - 1.45 0.90 0.89 0.14% 0.08% 153
Germany 109 2.1% 1.50 1.16 1.15 0.15% 0.00% 111
Denmark 106 1.9% 1.50 1.07 1.06 0.15% 0.00% 108
Kuwait 108 0.7% 1.41 1.01 0.99 0.10% 0.04% 126
Kosovo 144 5.8% 1.49 1.34 1.32 0.37% 0.37% 360
Monaco 102 - 1.52 0.20 0.11 0.29% 0.15% 119
Maine 105 - 1.32 0.20 0.02 0.10% 0.04% 90
Dominican Republic 110 1.1% 1.16 1.01 0.99 0.08% 0.08% 143
Guatemala 113 - 1.28 1.01 1.00 0.12% 0.10% 155
Idaho 127 4.4% 1.37 1.16 1.14 0.26% 0.26% 252
Vermont 94 - 1.88 0.20 0.10 0.23% 0.03% 95
Bosnia and Herzegovina 110 4.4% 0.78 1.19 1.18 0.17% 0.17% 201
Bahrain 88 - 1.42 0.73 0.72 0.10% 0.03% 98
Utah 91 1.9% 0.85 1.08 1.07 0.08% 0.08% 131
Saudi Arabia 85 - 1.27 0.91 0.90 0.07% 0.03% 98
Austria 80 - 1.49 0.20 0.03 0.12% 0.02% 71
West Virginia 90 7.0% 1.61 1.25 1.23 0.13% 0.09% 149
Oman 86 - 1.08 0.88 0.87 0.09% 0.07% 110
Hubei, China 75 - 1.31 0.20 0.03 0.15% 0.03% 75
Oregon 82 0.6% 1.18 0.91 0.90 0.07% 0.07% 105
Montenegro 84 - 1.39 0.99 0.98 0.14% 0.09% 125
Argentina 85 2.4% 1.09 1.09 1.08 0.14% 0.14% 153
Sao Tome and Principe 68 - 1.51 0.20 0.06 0.12% 0.06% 61
El Salvador 74 0.3% 1.36 1.02 1.01 0.08% 0.08% 108
Serbia 68 - 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.08% 0.04% 84
Hungary 62 - 1.28 0.20 0.20 0.08% 0.00% 61
Finland 60 - 1.41 0.20 0.06 0.11% 0.01% 58
Djibouti 59 - 1.27 0.20 0.02 0.08% 0.02% 58
Slovenia 59 - 1.35 0.20 0.05 0.09% 0.01% 51
Estonia 52 - 1.35 0.20 0.00 0.09% 0.01% 52
Albania 60 2.2% 1.17 1.08 1.08 0.08% 0.08% 101
Norway 47 - 1.33 0.20 0.03 0.08% 0.02% 42


Note: The growth rate for daily deaths is the average daily growth rate for the HP-filtered data for the most recent week. Negative values are omitted to show the locations where daily deaths are rising. Places where COVID deaths exploded in April -- like NYC, Lombardy, Spain, and Boston -- all featured daily growth rates above 10 percent for a significant time.