Time-Varying R0(t) Results with Data thru 9-October-2020 for

Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Charles I. Jones

Click on a location below to see a 30+ page pdf of extended results for that location

NOTE: Results are highly uncertain in some cases; this is often appreciated by
comparing across multiple graphs. See the paper itself, a summary spreadsheet, a detailed spreadsheet, and data sources.
Cumulative Deaths Daily Deaths
per Million (growth rate, Initial Today's % Ever Peak Today's Cumulative Deaths
Location Name Population past week) R0 R0 infected Infectious Infectious per Million, t+30
New York City (only) 2860 3.7% 2.28 1.59 28.8% 4.85% 0.04% 2903
New York City (plus) 2422 3.9% 2.25 1.57 24.4% 4.09% 0.03% 2457
New Jersey 1818 - 2.20 0.20 18.0% 1.99% 0.07% 1796
Detroit 1715 - 2.29 0.20 15.6% 2.15% 0.12% 1555
New York 1708 3.6% 2.26 1.43 17.2% 2.70% 0.03% 1737
Lombardy, Italy 1687 - 2.20 0.20 16.8% 2.36% 0.01% 1680
Stockholm, Sweden 1474 - 2.20 0.20 14.7% 1.68% 0.03% 1469
Madrid, Spain 1448 - 2.22 0.20 12.9% 2.37% 0.04% 1291
Massachusetts 1389 - 1.99 1.06 14.1% 1.51% 0.11% 1425
Boston+Middlesex 1373 - 2.08 1.05 13.9% 1.77% 0.08% 1397
Connecticut 1268 3.0% 2.18 1.38 12.7% 1.61% 0.03% 1294
San Marino 1238 - 2.26 0.22 12.6% 2.47% 0.28% 1256
Miami 1236 - 1.71 0.67 12.8% 0.69% 0.18% 1292
Louisiana 1175 - 1.96 1.11 12.0% 0.76% 0.13% 1232
Philadelphia 1148 - 2.06 0.73 11.6% 1.04% 0.06% 1166
Rhode Island 1061 - 1.86 0.84 10.7% 0.72% 0.06% 1080
Mississippi 1049 - 1.49 0.95 10.8% 0.55% 0.20% 1120
Chicago 1023 1.2% 1.91 1.18 10.3% 0.77% 0.07% 1058
Peru 996 - 1.46 0.86 10.1% 0.47% 0.09% 1028
District of Columbia 895 1.7% 1.82 1.12 9.0% 0.88% 0.06% 924
Michigan 888 1.8% 2.01 1.21 9.0% 1.01% 0.08% 933
Paris, France 886 1.8% 2.13 1.08 9.1% 1.33% 0.11% 936
Belgium 871 - 2.13 0.20 8.7% 1.51% 0.02% 869
Arizona 786 - 1.24 0.38 8.0% 0.60% 0.05% 799
Illinois 754 2.3% 1.80 1.22 7.7% 0.50% 0.13% 824
Texas 720 - 1.28 1.09 7.4% 0.52% 0.19% 805
Andorra 691 - 2.19 0.20 6.9% 1.28% 0.10% 685
Bolivia 699 - 1.18 0.20 7.0% 0.87% 0.55% 714
Georgia 696 - 1.62 0.94 7.2% 0.34% 0.14% 749
Brazil 694 - 1.33 1.04 7.1% 0.25% 0.15% 757
Spain 694 - 2.09 0.20 6.2% 1.02% 0.03% 616
South Carolina 691 - 1.22 1.07 7.1% 0.50% 0.15% 760
Florida 699 - 1.39 1.01 7.3% 0.44% 0.20% 781
Chile 684 0.1% 1.64 1.07 6.9% 0.56% 0.13% 741
Maryland 666 - 1.78 0.65 6.7% 0.53% 0.03% 675
Paris, Ile-de-France 670 - 2.11 1.09 6.8% 0.99% 0.06% 702
London, U.K. 660 2.3% 2.11 1.13 6.7% 1.21% 0.02% 676
Delaware 665 - 1.53 0.21 5.5% 0.45% 0.27% 553
Pennsylvania 654 0.1% 1.81 1.14 6.6% 0.58% 0.06% 688
Ecuador 670 - 1.16 0.20 7.1% 1.16% 0.86% 714
United States 642 - 1.83 1.06 6.6% 0.39% 0.10% 688
United Kingdom 626 4.5% 2.03 1.24 6.3% 0.79% 0.05% 656
Mexico 633 4.4% 1.23 1.38 6.6% 0.28% 0.28% 809
Italy 596 2.5% 1.98 1.17 6.0% 0.74% 0.02% 609
Los Angeles 604 - 1.54 0.80 6.2% 0.21% 0.09% 631
Sweden 584 - 1.86 0.20 5.8% 0.54% 0.01% 586
U.S. excluding NYC 572 - 1.69 1.05 5.9% 0.30% 0.11% 618
Houston (Harris Co.) 560 - 1.26 0.84 5.7% 0.41% 0.06% 580
Panama 566 - 1.19 0.95 5.8% 0.34% 0.13% 612
Alabama 553 - 1.35 1.24 5.6% 0.27% 0.06% 598
Nevada 542 - 1.49 0.99 5.5% 0.31% 0.07% 572
New Mexico 537 - 1.50 0.87 5.5% 0.27% 0.07% 562
Arkansas 566 - 1.13 1.05 6.1% 0.48% 0.32% 706
Indiana 532 2.1% 1.70 1.15 5.5% 0.37% 0.12% 590
Atlanta 524 - 1.51 0.20 2.7% 0.21% 0.08% 273
Iowa 539 2.5% 1.38 1.18 5.6% 0.28% 0.21% 644
Colombia 531 - 1.30 0.96 5.4% 0.33% 0.16% 590
France 492 0.9% 1.96 1.03 5.0% 0.81% 0.06% 518
New York excluding NYC 432 - 1.78 0.20 4.2% 0.33% 0.01% 423
Ohio 443 - 1.45 1.03 4.5% 0.21% 0.10% 484
Minnesota 423 1.9% 1.47 1.12 4.3% 0.25% 0.10% 472
Virginia 417 - 1.74 0.52 4.3% 0.25% 0.06% 434
California 415 - 1.35 0.86 4.2% 0.18% 0.08% 441
North Dakota 480 - 1.26 0.20 1.3% 0.15% 0.09% 134
Netherlands 379 - 1.84 0.20 3.6% 0.50% 0.00% 360
Argentina 484 2.7% 1.09 1.04 5.7% 0.84% 0.84% 768
Ireland 367 - 1.76 0.20 3.6% 0.62% 0.00% 360
Tennessee 396 1.8% 1.15 1.16 4.2% 0.23% 0.23% 508
Colorado 367 3.4% 1.60 1.33 3.7% 0.29% 0.05% 403
North Macedonia 368 - 1.23 1.02 3.8% 0.20% 0.10% 410
North Carolina 371 - 1.34 0.84 3.9% 0.14% 0.12% 409
Kosovo 351 - 1.49 1.29 3.4% 0.35% 0.03% 377
Kentucky 357 - 1.51 1.00 3.7% 0.15% 0.10% 396
Missouri 357 1.2% 1.53 1.14 3.8% 0.21% 0.20% 457
New Hampshire 335 10.1% 1.79 1.51 3.4% 0.34% 0.04% 382
Moldova 345 0.7% 1.15 1.10 3.6% 0.15% 0.15% 419
Armenia 334 5.3% 1.61 1.36 3.3% 0.19% 0.09% 408
Nebraska 331 0.9% 1.26 1.01 3.4% 0.20% 0.13% 380
Iran 326 1.5% 1.39 1.10 3.4% 0.13% 0.13% 390
South Dakota 349 4.7% 1.66 1.27 3.8% 0.37% 0.37% 544
Idaho 306 2.9% 1.37 1.37 3.2% 0.22% 0.12% 402
South Africa 290 0.8% 1.23 1.07 2.9% 0.23% 0.07% 321
Washington 286 - 1.47 1.00 2.9% 0.17% 0.04% 305
Oklahoma 292 - 1.39 0.94 3.0% 0.14% 0.09% 326
Kansas 294 2.0% 1.51 1.23 3.1% 0.20% 0.18% 402
West Virginia 280 - 1.61 0.66 2.9% 0.20% 0.09% 308
Bosnia and Herzegovina 274 - 0.78 0.96 2.9% 0.16% 0.12% 320
Wisconsin 271 4.7% 1.48 1.18 2.8% 0.15% 0.15% 349
Romania 266 2.2% 1.16 1.20 2.8% 0.13% 0.13% 344
Switzerland 240 - 1.77 0.20 2.2% 0.38% 0.04% 222
Honduras 247 0.2% 1.10 0.98 2.4% 0.18% 0.09% 282
Iraq 237 - 1.45 1.02 2.4% 0.14% 0.07% 268
SF Bay Area 220 0.1% 1.16 1.16 2.3% 0.11% 0.08% 263
Luxembourg 203 - 1.61 0.20 1.8% 0.28% 0.03% 179
Dominican Republic 198 - 1.16 1.31 2.0% 0.10% 0.02% 217
Portugal 199 3.9% 1.52 1.26 2.0% 0.17% 0.05% 239
Oman 193 0.5% 1.08 1.10 2.0% 0.10% 0.09% 239
Guatemala 185 - 1.28 0.85 1.8% 0.12% 0.02% 194
Suriname 181 - 1.06 0.20 1.7% 0.20% 0.08% 177
Israel 207 2.1% 1.17 1.07 2.3% 0.24% 0.24% 316
Costa Rica 197 0.0% 1.38 1.02 2.1% 0.18% 0.17% 272
Bahrain 154 - 1.42 0.78 1.5% 0.10% 0.07% 174
Kuwait 148 3.3% 1.41 1.24 1.5% 0.10% 0.05% 182
Oregon 145 3.4% 1.18 1.22 1.5% 0.07% 0.06% 181
Saudi Arabia 141 - 1.27 0.94 1.3% 0.07% 0.04% 155
Albania 140 0.5% 1.17 1.16 1.3% 0.08% 0.05% 168
Utah 140 8.3% 0.85 1.35 1.4% 0.08% 0.08% 202
El Salvador 134 2.5% 1.36 1.13 1.3% 0.08% 0.04% 153
Maine 121 - 1.32 0.20 0.9% 0.10% 0.04% 90
Paraguay 136 0.1% 1.45 1.03 1.5% 0.15% 0.14% 198
Germany 114 1.5% 1.50 1.01 1.1% 0.15% 0.01% 117
Denmark 114 3.0% 1.50 1.26 1.1% 0.15% 0.02% 126
Cabo Verde 123 3.8% 1.39 1.24 1.3% 0.14% 0.14% 233
Vermont 95 - 1.88 0.20 0.9% 0.23% 0.03% 95
Ukraine 106 1.7% 1.06 1.10 0.8% 0.09% 0.09% 150
Hawaii 112 3.9% 1.06 1.24 1.1% 0.14% 0.14% 198
Alaska 98 - 1.10 0.20 0.8% 0.10% 0.04% 106
Eswatini 97 - 1.13 0.84 0.9% 0.09% 0.01% 102
Kazakhstan 93 - 1.34 0.86 0.8% 0.10% 0.01% 95
Austria 92 - 1.49 0.20 0.7% 0.12% 0.02% 71
Libya 88 - 1.06 0.77 0.9% 0.09% 0.06% 106
Hungary 89 - 1.28 0.20 0.6% 0.08% 0.00% 61
Malta 90 - 1.08 0.58 0.8% 0.18% 0.10% 116
Hubei, China 75 - 1.31 0.20 0.7% 0.15% 0.03% 75
Slovenia 76 - 1.35 0.20 0.5% 0.09% 0.01% 51
Sao Tome and Principe 68 - 1.51 0.20 0.6% 0.12% 0.06% 61
Finland 62 - 1.41 0.20 0.5% 0.11% 0.01% 58
Djibouti 62 - 1.27 0.20 0.5% 0.08% 0.02% 58
Belize 80 6.1% 1.40 1.28 0.9% 0.15% 0.15% 177
Czechia 75 - 1.03 0.20 0.3% 0.05% 0.00% 33
Trinidad and Tobago 60 0.6% 1.44 1.19 0.6% 0.09% 0.05% 89
Monaco 102 - 1.52 0.20 1.2% 0.29% 0.15% 119
Norway 51 - 1.33 0.20 0.4% 0.08% 0.02% 42
Estonia 52 - 1.35 0.20 0.5% 0.09% 0.01% 52
Barbados 24 - 1.16 0.20 0.2% 0.07% 0.01% 24


Note: The growth rate for daily deaths is the average daily growth rate for the HP-filtered data for the most recent week. Negative values are omitted to show the locations where daily deaths are rising. Places where COVID deaths exploded in April -- like NYC, Lombardy, Spain, and Boston -- all featured daily growth rates above 10 percent for a significant time.